August 24, 2022
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THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
House Democrats are ecstatic after winning a special election in New York last night, holding onto a seat that had been heavily favored to swing into the GOP column. Democrats are now arguing that predictions of a Republican romp in November – which they’ve been hearing for the last 18 months or so – are wrong. And they’re pointing to abortion and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down Roe v. Wade as the key to Tuesday’s victory, and possibly the House this fall.
Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in the special election to replace former Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in New York’s 19th District. Delgado is now lieutenant governor of New York.
Molinaro – who will be on the ballot in a redrawn district this November against a different Democratic opponent – focused his campaign on bashing President Joe Biden, inflation and crime. Ryan – a 40-year-old West Point grad and Iraq War combat veteran who will be on the ballot in the 18th District this fall – relied heavily on a pro abortion rights message. Ryan repeatedly declared “Choice was on the ballot” throughout the campaign, while also calling for an assault weapons ban.
No poll ever showed Ryan leading, not even the one released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. A survey published by a progressive group right before the election had Molinaro up by eight points. Both sides poured money into the final stages of this bellwether Hudson Valley race.
Ryan is currently up by nearly 5,000 votes, or 3.8%, with 95% of the vote in. Absentee ballots are still being counted. Molinaro hasn’t officially conceded yet, but the AP has called this race.
“We got in this race because the foundations of our democracy were and remain under direct threat,” Ryan said following his victory, according to the Times Union. “When the Supreme Court ripped away reproductive rights, access to abortion rights, we said, ‘This is not what America stands for.’”
“What happened in New York 19th [District] is an earthquake,” a very pleased Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.) told us around midnight.
“You saw huge turnout. Clearly the choice message worked. Pat Ryan nearly beat Marc Molinaro in Molinaro’s home county, Dutchess County. And he won a special election that Republicans should have won easily.”
Here’s some more from Maloney, who crushed a primary challenge from progressive Alessandra Biaggi as well:
We also asked Maloney whether other Frontline Democrats should be focusing on abortion rights in swing districts across the nation. Enthusiasm and energy among pro-Democratic voters has shot up since the Supreme Court ruling on the Dobbs case was issued on June 24, yet a number of Frontliners aren’t campaigning on this issue:
Other big headlines from Tuesday’s results in New York, Florida and Oklahoma:
| → | Rep. Jerry Nadler crushed Rep. Carolyn Maloney in an unprecedented Democratic primary faceoff between full committee chairs in New York’s 12th District. The defeat spells the end of Maloney’s 30-year congressional career. |
| → | Dan Goldman, a former Trump impeachment counsel, defeated a trio of progressive opponents, including State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, Rep. Mondaire Jones and New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera, in the Democratic primary in New York’s 10th District. Goldman will be coming to Congress in January. |
| → | Republican Joe Sempolinski won the special election to finish out the rest of former GOP Rep. Tom Reed’s term as the member for New York’s 23rd District. Sempolinski, Reed’s former district director, defeated Democrat Max Della Pia. |
But Sempolinski isn’t on the ballot for November. Instead, New York Republican State Committee Chair Nick Langworthy will take on Della Pia. Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino in the GOP primary for this safe Republican seat. Paladino was notably endorsed by House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik despite his history of racist remarks. Paladino refused to concede on Tuesday night in this close race.
| → | Rep. Val Demings won the Senate Democratic nomination in Florida and will take on GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. Demings would be the first Black person – and only the second woman – to serve as a senator from the Sunshine State. |
| → | Rep. Charlie Crist easily defeated Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary. Crist will face GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis in November. |
| → | GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin and former Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn will face off in Oklahoma’s Senate race this November. Mullin is the heavy favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) in the deep-red state. |
| → | Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a 25-year-old activist, won in a crowded Democratic primary field that included Florida State Sen. Randolph Bracy and former Reps. Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown. Frost is heavily favored to succeed Demings in the Orlando-area seat and become the first Gen Z member of Congress. |
— John Bresnahan, Heather Caygle and Max Cohen
NEW: Join us on Tuesday, Sept. 20 at 9 a.m. ET for our interview with Senate Minority Whip John Thune. We’ll be talking to him about the role of private capital in supporting small businesses, jobs and the economy. The conversation is the second in a two-part series on “Investing in America,” presented by American Investment Council. RSVP to join us in-person at The Roost or virtually on the livestream.
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AMR is already a leading cause of death around the world. New data shows AMR currently claims more lives globally than HIV/AIDS and malaria combined.
LEADERSHIP RACE
Eyeing leadership post, Schiff to fundraise for N.J. Frontliners
House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is hosting a big fundraiser on Saturday with four New Jersey Frontline Democrats, another sign of his leadership ambitions.
Schiff, who serves as the DCCC’s National Battleground Finance chair, is raising money for endangered incumbent Reps. Andy Kim, Mikie Sherrill, Josh Gottheimer and Tom Malinowski.
Schiff is eyeing a run to be the House Democratic leader next Congress. The California Democrat has made sure to flex his substantial fundraising muscle to help out vulnerable members this cycle.
Another notable point: This event is occurring essentially in the backyard of Schiff’s main leadership rival — House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries.
— Max Cohen
THE COPPER STATE REPORT
Sinema in the spotlight
Primary Sinema, the progressive group seeking to unseat centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in 2024, has paid for two billboards outside the Phoenix airport. The billboards accuse Sinema of selling out to Wall Street.
Also: Sinema’s campaign is asking for up to $5,800 for a 45-minute reception in D.C. As one tipster pointed out, that’s a lot of money for a reception without a dinner.
If you can’t make the Chinatown reception, Sinema’s fundraising team is also hosting an event in the Capitol Hill area two weeks later. Check it out here.
– Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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Presented by Jones Family Office
Recent jobless data shows the first signs of the societal disruptions of AI are already here. The warning is playing out in real-time, right before our eyes. We need to stop delaying efforts to make AI safe for humanity.