Now that the Senate is entering a somewhat calmer summer period, we thought it’d be a good time for a Leader Look at Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. This is a regular Punchbowl News feature. We’ll do Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries next Friday. Let’s get into it.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Passing the One Big Beautiful Bill was a massive feat that not only burnished Thune’s leadership credentials but also went a long way toward solidifying his relationship with President Donald Trump. The pair met in the Oval Office Wednesday night to talk about the 2026 elections, as we scooped in Thursday’s Midday edition.
Thune told us last week that reconciliation was “the most complicated thing I’ve ever tried to do.” Balancing the demands of his own conference while dealing with the House and Trump was difficult. At times, it was nearly impossible.
But even that may pale in comparison to what’s ahead.
Thune is already leaning hard into selling what Republicans see as the benefits of the bill — yes, even massive Medicaid and SNAP cuts — as Democrats are promising to center their 2026 messaging on it.
“We now have a finished product to get out there and sell, the individual components of which are incredibly popular,” Thune said, naming work requirements and rooting out waste and fraud. “Now we’ve got something that we can go out and actually make an argument about that I think is a winning argument.”
Yet there have been problems on the Senate recruitment front for Republicans, especially in New Hampshire and Georgia. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is facing a serious primary challenge next year. GOP leaders also are hoping that Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) run for reelection.
On top of that, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) decision to retire makes it more difficult for Republicans to hold that seat. Tillis is publicly railing against the reconciliation bill in ways that completely contradict Thune and other top Republicans.
Thune took concrete steps to mitigate the political fallout from cutting Medicaid. But he acknowledged to us that this is an issue Republicans are “pregnant” with.
In our interview, Thune argued that delaying the implementation of many of the Medicaid changes “minimized the political impact” for 2026. That theory will soon be put to the test.
Thune also needs to muscle through the White House’s $9 billion rescissions package. It’s a relatively small amount of money but a big Trump priority. (More on that below.) It will also set the stage for the coming FY2026 funding fight.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. It should be no surprise that Democrats — especially Schumer — see the Republican reconciliation bill as a political gold mine. But Democrats need to net four seats in 2026 to retake the majority, a tough undertaking even with the GOP recruitment issues.
An emboldened Schumer told us Thursday that the OBBB’s passage — especially the Medicaid cuts and reversal of clean energy tax credits — puts Republicans’ Senate majority at risk. Schumer said the GOP legislation placed additional states in play and helped with candidate recruitment, though he wouldn’t elaborate.
“It affects people right where it hurts — losing your health care. Horrible,” Schumer said. “Losing your job. Horrible. Costs going up dramatically because of this bill — and people will talk about it everywhere.”
Schumer pointed to Tillis as one of the most effective messengers against the GOP package. Tillis has been warning that the bill will harm Republicans in 2026, which is music to Schumer’s ears.
“You will see what he says [blasted out] all over the country, not just by us, but by other people too,” Schumer said. “He spoke truth to power.”
On Collins, Schumer disputed the idea that her vote against the OBBB will make it more difficult for Democrats to attack the veteran GOP senator in the same way. Schumer noted that Collins was a deciding vote on the motion to proceed that allowed the reconciliation bill to advance. Try explaining that to voters, however. Schumer also still needs a candidate in Maine.
While the poll numbers on reconciliation look promising for Democrats, Schumer faces a complicated situation later in the fall when dealing with a potential government shutdown.
Schumer has warned that an FY2026 funding deal is impossible if Republicans jam through a rescissions package on a party-line vote, arguing Democrats have shown good faith while GOP leaders and Trump are undercutting the process.
When asked if Democrats would walk away from government-funding negotiations if that happens, Schumer said, “Our goal is to pursue the bipartisan approps process.”
There was a lot of Democratic anger at Schumer earlier this year when he backed the GOP-drafted continuing resolution this spring, and the Sept. 30 funding deadline is a chance for a reset. It also happens to be Democrats’ only remaining leverage point this year.
And Schumer knows that a big swath of his caucus will be girding for a fight as Trump and OMB chief Russ Vought make unprecedented funding moves such as “pocket rescissions.”
Another challenge for Schumer is what to do about Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for NYC mayor. Schumer still hasn’t endorsed Mamdani. Republicans continue to hammer the 33-year-old Mamdani as a socialist and antisemite over his rhetoric toward Israel.
Schumer has long spoken out against antisemitism, including within his own party. But the internal NYC – and national – politics over Mamdani are difficult for both Schumer and Jeffries.
