Inside Schumer's shutdown strategy

IN THIS EDITION

Schumer doesn’t sound like he’s about to fold

White House seeks Dem votes on CR

How ACA tax credits are playing on the airwaves

Marine combat veteran to challenge Vasquez in N.M.

ICYMI: Guthrie on shutdown, free speech, AI for small business

THE TOP

Schumer doesn’t sound like he’s about to fold

Happy Friday morning.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune weak, said Republicans will own any government shutdown and insisted that Democrats shouldn’t agree to fund federal agencies unless Congress clamps down on the administration’s ability to unilaterally cut spending.

This is a very different Schumer than the one who helped Thune keep the government open in March. During an interview on Fly Out Day, Schumer didn’t sound like a man who is going to fold.

“It’s different in many different ways,” Schumer said, comparing this funding fight to the one in March. “First, the Republicans have shown who they are. They’ve decimated people’s health care between March and now. They’ve done so much harm to the American people, on health care, on electricity costs, on tariffs, that the American people are far more down on Trump than on the Republicans than they were.”

This is going to come as welcome news to House Democrats, many of whom think Schumer is weak-kneed and on the brink of capitulating again to Republicans and President Donald Trump.

Schumer’s view on funding fight. As a reminder, the Democrats’ position right now is that Congress should fund the government until Oct. 31 while permanently extending the enhanced premium subsidies for Obamacare and reversing the massive Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

Schumer also is seeking to bar Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought from impounding funds approved by Congress or offering more rescissions packages.

These are all absolute non-starters for Republicans.

With so much at stake, House Republicans will try today to pass a clean CR until Nov. 21. The vote is scheduled for around 10:20 a.m. Thune has locked in votes on the Republican CR, as well as the Democratic alternative from Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Both of these will fail in the Senate. GOP leaders then seem ready to send senators home for the scheduled recess until Sept. 29, just a day before the funding deadline.

Schumer is convinced that Trump and Republicans will own the shutdown, which flies in the face of decades of political history about the fallout from these types of showdowns.

“Look, Donald Trump is heading the show here,” Schumer said. “And he has said, ‘Don’t negotiate with the Democrats. We don’t need them.’ There’s one of two things. Either he doesn’t understand the Senate — even in its most rudimentary way — or he doesn’t know how to count. The only good way to get this done is a bipartisan negotiation.”

According to Schumer, Johnson and Thune are simply Trump’s puppets and exhibit “weakness” for not wanting to sit down with Democrats.

Schumer said Democrats “love the contrast” of their bill and the GOP’s, chiefly because, in his view, Americans prefer bipartisanship.

To be clear, Schumer has shifted appreciably on the political implications of a shutdown with Trump in the White House. In March, one of his principal reasons for keeping the government open was that Republicans would make a shutdown painful.

But now, nearly seven months later, Trump’s poll numbers have slid, especially on the economy. Schumer also said he’s working much closer with Jeffries to plot this showdown:

Yet this is where it gets hairy for Schumer. There’s no chance that Republicans are going to roll back OBBB Medicaid cuts. And it’s equally unlikely that Republicans will agree to handcuff the Trump administration’s ability to cut federal funding by rescissions.

Check out this very interesting exchange:

In case you somehow missed that, that’s Schumer explaining how Democrats believe they can win a shutdown.

Schumer also described Democrats’ position as “quite strong.”

Politics. We’ll give you a little taste of what else we talked about. You’ll have to watch the episode to get a full run down.

We asked Schumer if he believes Democrats are going to win the Senate majority in November 2026, and he said “we have a damn good chance, much better than we did Jan. 1.”

Of course, we asked Schumer why he hasn’t endorsed Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor in New York City.

“Look, the bottom line is that I know Mamdami,” Schumer said. “We worked on things for several years successfully. I get along with him well, we sat down last Monday and had a very serious talk, a lengthy talk, and we’re going to keep talking.”

We pressed him on the issue, but Schumer wouldn’t bite: “We’re going to keep talking. Any other questions?”

One more thing: Schumer didn’t commit to running for reelection in 2028, when he would be nearly 78 years old.

“Look – my first focus is winning in 2026, getting back the Senate in 2026, and that is my focus,” Schumer said. “It’s sort of my North Star.”

– Jake Sherman

NEW: Join us on Thursday, Oct. 9 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) about news of the day, 5G and spectrum policy. The event is presented by CTIA, whose President and CEO Ajit Pai will join us for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

THE HOUSE

White House seeks Dem votes on CR

With Congress about to take some huge votes on government funding, the White House has quietly been connecting with battleground House Democrats to see if they’d vote for the GOP’s Nov. 21 spending plan.

This comes as the House and Senate are scheduled for a pivotal day in the growing shutdown drama. The House will go first this morning. Then the Senate will vote on the competing GOP and Democratic proposals, both of which are expected to fail. At that point, lawmakers are expected to leave town for several days at least, setting up a shutdown endgame running right up to the Oct. 1 deadline.

The White House outreach to swing-seat House Democrats is significant because House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is eager to keep his caucus as united as possible against the GOP plan. And President Donald Trump has said his party should not “even bother” negotiating with Democrats.

“That doesn’t mean they don’t want Democratic votes,” said Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), one of the possible defections.

Golden said he had had “very little” contact from the White House and did not go into specifics. But Golden said such communication is typical. “That’s their job,” Golden added.

We spoke to several Democratic lawmakers and aides who were aware of the White House’s efforts. Top Democrats have leaned on their members to wait until Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders to get 217 votes on the CR – enough to pass the bill – if they intend to vote yes. Democrats are watching Golden and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), among others.

Democrats in battleground districts could be in a tough spot voting against a clean Republican CR, which would keep federal agencies open until Nov. 21.

Still, moderate Democrats want Republicans to engage on enhanced Obamacare tax credits, a key health care demand. Yet pressure to keep the government open would grow if the Senate is able to pass something and send it back to the House — though that’s unlikely right now.

GOP strategy on timing. There has been intense discussion behind the scenes among House and Senate Republicans about strategy, timing and messaging over a possible shutdown. These discussions have picked up as the reality of an Oct. 1 shutdown sets in – in fact, it’s likely to happen at this point.

House Republicans have been kicking around a number of scheduling options for the period leading up to Oct. 1. Some top Republicans, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, want to pass their CR proposal today and then leave until after a shutdown starts. The House is scheduled to be out next week for Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year, and members aren’t supposed to return until Sept. 29.

But a number of other senior Republicans think this option would leave a huge opening for House Democrats to exploit.

The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s annual legislative conference begins on Thursday and runs through the weekend. Jeffries will be in town, as will other House Democratic leaders and lots of rank-and-file members. Democrats could take advantage of Republicans’ absence by bashing them for being AWOL when the government shuts down. So this seems like an unwise and unlikely play.

We expect Republicans to offer a bunch of “narrow” funding proposals during a shutdown to make it difficult for Democratic moderates. For instance, Republicans could offer a bill to pay soldiers and sailors, or TSA agents and other federal law enforcement officers. They’d dare vulnerable Democrats to vote against these measures, votes that could be used against them next year.

Across the Capitol, Senate Republicans held a conference meeting and went over the same issues. Some GOP senators want to return as soon as Thursday, even though the Senate is scheduled to be out next week as well.

A number of Senate Republicans privately believe Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is prepared to vote for a shutdown but then will soon agree to some kind of deal to reopen federal agencies in return for promises of a vote on Obamacare subsidies or other Democratic priorities.

There was also a lot of speculation during the meeting about how Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought would handle a shutdown. OMB has wide discretion on whether federal employees are deemed “essential” and have to show up to work even if they’re not getting paid. Or Trump and Vought could close down much of the federal operations, making the shutdown as painful for the American public as possible in order to amp up pressure on Democrats to come back to the negotiating table.

– Laura Weiss, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

How ACA tax credits are playing on the airwaves

Proponents of extending the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits are employing pro-MAGA tactics in their appeals on the airwaves, per an AdImpact analysis.

Democrats are demanding that Hill Republicans act to stop boosted Obamacare subsidies from expiring at the end of the year. But despite vulnerable Republicans acknowledging that it’s necessary to extend the tax credits, GOP leaders are insisting such a measure shouldn’t be connected to a short-term CR.

We asked our friends at AdImpact to track what ads are running that urge Republicans to act. Every spot aimed at the GOP in the past few months centers the issue as a key plank of the MAGA agenda.

The pro-tax credit ads leave out any mention of Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act, reorienting the subsidies in a neutral frame as “enhanced premium tax credits.”

Let’s take a look at the ads. One ad, paid for by Americans for a Balanced Budget, starts by hailing President Donald Trump for securing “a historic victory for the American people” when he signed the GOP reconciliation package into law.

“But a massive health care tax hike looms on the horizon, threatening everything,” the ad continues, before making a plea for Congress to “preserve the enhanced premium tax credits.”

In another spot, backed by American Advancement Inc., the ad’s narrator frames the tax credit conversation in starkly political terms for Republicans. The ad, targeting multiple Senate Republican incumbents and candidates, calls on Republicans to “protect our premium tax credits and we’ll protect the majority and the MAGA agenda.”

“Extending the premium tax credits working families used to pay for healthcare is how Republicans deliver on the promises that gave them the majority and protect Trump,” the ad’s narrator says.

Another American Advancement ad promises “Republicans will lose in 2026” if premium tax credits expire.

“President Trump is already making America more affordable. Now, Congress has to do its part by extending the tax credits working families use to afford their health care,” the ad’s narrator says.

These American Advancement spots take aim at Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, in addition to GOP Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Susan Collins (Maine), Jon Husted (Ohio), Ashley Moody (Fla.), Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.). North Carolina’s Senate GOP candidate Michael Whatley is also targeted.

— Max Cohen

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

Marine combat veteran to challenge Vasquez in N.M.

News: Greg Cunningham, a Marine combat veteran and alum of the Albuquerque Police Department, is preparing to challenge Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez for his New Mexico swing district seat.

Cunningham is the latest in a crop of Hispanic candidates recruited by Republicans as the GOP attempts to flip Latino districts. Cunningham has already spoken with the NRCC about a run.

New Mexico’s 2nd District is a top target for Republicans because it’s one of 13 Democratic-held districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024. The district spans the southern half of the state and includes a portion of Albuquerque.

Cunningham served in the Albuquerque police force as an officer and a detective. In 2024, he ran for a state House seat and lost by 8 points. Cunningham also ran for the seat in 2022.

Vasquez was elected to the House in 2022, ousting GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell. A first-generation Mexican-American, Vasquez served on the Las Cruces City Council before coming to Congress.

– Ally Mutnick

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Guthrie on shutdown, free speech, AI for small business

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) participated in a Punchbowl News event Thursday, where he called for a national standard for artificial intelligence and discussed the prospects of a government shutdown.

Guthrie said it will be up to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer whether Congress will extend government funding through a continuing resolution or let it lapse.

You can watch the full recording here.

– Shania Shelton

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