Shutdown Day 6: Will Democrats blink?

IN THIS EDITION

Week Two: Can Democrats stay united?

Majority of Calif. voters back Prop 50 in new poll

Hill staffers give slight edge to Dems in shutdown blame game

Senate Dems eye War Powers resolution vote this week

THE TOP

Week Two: Can Democrats stay united?

Happy Monday morning. This is Day 6 of the government shutdown. There’s no deal in sight to end the crisis.

The Senate is scheduled to vote this evening — for the fifth time — on advancing the House-passed bill to fund federal agencies through Nov. 21. There are no indications yet that additional Senate Democrats will vote for the GOP funding measure. Only three have done so up to now.

But Senate GOP leaders continue to believe that enough Democratic senators will cross the aisle eventually to pass the Republican CR, so they aren’t abandoning their strategy of forcing successive votes. If Democrats block the measure again, Senate Majority Leader John Thune can set up another vote for Tuesday. If that fails, the next vote wouldn’t be until Thursday.

Remember: These are cloture votes at a 60-vote threshold. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a no, meaning eight Senate Democrats would have to vote yes to move forward. Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Angus King (I-Maine) are the only yes votes. King, an independent, caucuses with Democrats.

On Senate Democrats. The notion of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer folding at this point seems very unlikely. Yet if you’re Schumer, you’re watching very closely how a handful of Democratic senators are posturing themselves as the shutdown impacts begin to accumulate.

The first paycheck that some federal workers will miss is scheduled to hit on Friday, according to the General Services Administration. We’re also waiting to see whether President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought follow through on threats of mass layoffs or rescind more federal funding from blue states.

Trump told reporters on Sunday that layoffs are “taking place right now. It’s all because of the Democrats… It’s their shutdown, not our shutdown.”

The White House and GOP leaders are also pointing to looming problems for millions of Americans if a key federal nutrition program — WIC (Women, Infants and Children) — runs out of money. That’s projected to happen as soon as this week.

If Republicans maintain their current strategy, Senate Democrats will have to decide at some point whether what they’re fighting for — chiefly, an extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits — is worth the growing pain of the shutdown. Public polls show that Democrats have the upper hand on messaging, but that could change quickly.

One Democratic senator told us that some colleagues who want to fold could justify doing so by pointing to the fact that the GOP stopgap funding bill gives Democrats another leverage point in just six weeks. However, this argument would cut against the party’s messaging — the Obamacare premium hikes are imminent and millions of Americans will be forced to pay a lot more or lose their coverage well before Nov. 21.

So Schumer will need to keep tabs on his retiring senators, moderates and those who represent states with high numbers of federal employees.

Schumer spent the weekend burning up the phone lines, as usual. Schumer appeared on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” where he doubled down on the need for bipartisan negotiation on an Obamacare subsidy extension. Schumer said Speaker Mike Johnson “has not committed to any extension and he won’t until the American people force him to.”

The House. In one of the most audacious moves in recent memory, Johnson has the House out of session for the second week in a row during the shutdown.

House members haven’t voted since Sept. 19, which means House Republicans — beyond their leadership and some assorted rank-and-file members — haven’t been in Washington during the middle of what’s now the sixth-longest shutdown in U.S. history. Meanwhile, more than 160 House Democrats were in town last week, according to members and aides.

Johnson held a conference call with House Republicans on Saturday. During the call, Johnson said he’d bring the chamber back when Senate Democrats fold — if they do. Until then, the GOP leadership recommended that Republicans stay in their districts to hold events blaming Democrats for the stalemate.

The House leadership even told committee chairs not to schedule hearings this week in order to make sure lawmakers don’t come to Washington.

The decision here is twofold.

No. 1: House Republican leaders are plenty happy blaming Senate Democrats for the government being closed.

No. 2: GOP leaders simply don’t want their rank-and-file members in Washington. They’re afraid that someone will say something stupid and their message — which has been chiefly expressed by Johnson — will be undercut.

Johnson has said that he’ll give members 48 hours’ notice before any vote.

There’s a House pro forma session today.

Sunday shutdown front pages, via the Freedom Forum. The Tribune (San Luis Obispo, Calif.): “The federal government shut down. How does it affect SLO County?” … Sioux City Journal (South Dakota): “Will the shutdown impact the economy?” … The Sunday Town Talk (Alexandria-Pineville, La.): “Social Security payments will still be made during shutdown” … Reno Gazette-Journal (Reno, Nev.): “SNAP changes set in as government shuts down. How may food stamps in Nevada be affected?” …

… Maine Sunday Telegram (Portland, Me.): “Visiting Acadia During a Shutdown: Empty tollbooths and closed visitor centers don’t deter tourists as the Trump administration considers ‘irreversible’ cuts.”

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

We’re excited to announce our first appearance and media partnership with D.C. Fintech Week, now known as Finchella. Join our policy team — Dave Clarke, Brendan Pedersen and Samantha Handler — on Wednesday, Oct. 15, at 9:30 a.m. ET for a special briefing.

To stay connected with us throughout the week or book an appointment to learn more about our financial services and technology newsletters, request a chat here: https://bmwiy.share.hsforms.com/2pGqFMQIwQ5umCtT-Qp8soQ

REDISTRICTING WARS

Majority of Calif. voters back Prop 50 in new poll

News: We’ve got some fresh polling on California’s redistricting ballot initiative ahead of the Nov. 4 election. And it’s good news for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

A majority of California voters, 54%, said they support Proposition 50, which would enact a mid-decade redistricting of the state’s congressional map, according to a survey from the firm co/efficient, shared first with Punchbowl News. A significantly smaller share, 36%, said they oppose it.

House Democrats’ prospects of retaking the majority next year hinge heavily on Prop 50. They desperately need a counterweight to Republicans’ redistricting in Texas, and California is the best positioned blue state to do so. But unlike Texas, Newsom has to ask the voters to cede redistricting authority to the legislature in order to pass a map that could net Democrats five additional seats.

This isn’t an easy lift. Voters like the idea of independent redistricting. Only 12% said they trust the legislature most to do redistricting and 35% said they trust the existing commission the most.

But this survey suggests California voters are more persuaded by the Democratic case for Prop 50 than the GOP arguments against it.

The ad wars. The pollster tested the arguments each party is using in their TV advertising campaigns. Voters said they were between 46% and 57% more likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the various Democratic pitches for it.

The pitches: Prop 50 would help California stand up to President Donald Trump and stop Trump from rigging the midterms. It is backed by Newsom and former President Barack Obama.

But voters were only 37% to 44% less likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the GOP arguments against it. Those arguments stressed that Prop 50 would create a dangerous precedent, undermine democracy and add millions of dollars in costs to taxpayers.

Newsom and his allies are eager to nationalize the race, framing it as a way to counter Trump. In the survey, Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater at 60% unfavorable to just 35% favorable. For their part, Republicans are trying to keep it local, reminding voters that the independent commission is good governance.

When read the exact language that will be on the Nov. 4 ballot, 56% of voters said they would vote yes, while 39% said they would vote no.

One very clear trend from the data: the ad campaign is breaking through. Combined TV, radio and digital ad spending is nearly $65 million, per AdImpact and Democrats have a clear advantage. And 51% of those surveyed said they were “very familiar” with Prop 50. Another 39% were “somewhat familiar” and 8% were “not very familiar.” Only 2% were not familiar with it at all. This is one of the most expensive campaigns in California history.

Methodology. This poll of 976 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.14 percentage points. The firm co/efficient is GOP-aligned. It was not sponsored by any candidate or a committee supporting a candidate.

– Ally Mutnick

Hill staffers give slight edge to Dems in shutdown blame game

More than half of top Capitol Hill staffers (58%) say the Republican Party is to blame for the ongoing government shutdown, according to our latest Canvass survey.

Unsurprisingly, respondents from both parties are pointing fingers at each other.

Nearly all Democrats and a quarter of Republicans who responded to The Canvass say they blame the GOP for the shutdown

Overwhelmingly, respondents say messaging from the big four leaders, Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, in the run-up to the shutdown has been weak.

In September, a paltry 13% of respondents said they believed messaging from Schumer and Jeffries had been effective. That includes 19% of Democrats who took the survey.

The Republican messaging didn’t seem to impress the party’s top Hill staffers either, with 31% of respondents saying they believe messaging from Thune and Johnson has been effective.

Public response. On day one of the government shutdown, a Washington Post poll found that 47% of U.S. adults blame President Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress for the shutdown. That same poll found that 30% blamed Democrats.

Another poll conducted by YouGov on Oct. 1-2 found that 41% of Americans think the shutdown will last less than two weeks.

The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG, Sept. 8-29, before the shutdown started.

Interested in taking the Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Zach Bradshaw

WAR POWERS

Senate Dems eye War Powers resolution vote this week

Senate Democrats are preparing to force a War Powers Act vote this week in response to the Trump administration’s strikes on cartel boats allegedly carrying illegal drugs into the United States.

The Democratic resolution, spearheaded by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.), could come up for a vote as soon as Wednesday. The resolution would prevent the U.S. military from “engaging in hostilities against non-state organizations until formally authorized by Congress.”

The upcoming vote on the privileged resolution comes amid debate over the legality of the White House’s recent offensive in the Caribbean Sea.

Since Sept. 2, the Pentagon has conducted four attacks on boats in the Caribbean. The strikes, targeting boats the U.S. government claims were cartel vessels smuggling drugs into the United States, have killed 21 people.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers criticized the U.S. attacks and argued the White House has kept Congress in the dark about the strikes. U.S. officials have accused Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of involvement in drug trafficking and dramatically stepped up diplomatic and military pressure against the country.

Last week, the Trump administration sent a notice to congressional committees that it determined the United States is engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with Latin American cartels deemed “designated terrorist organizations.” These include Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico and El Salvador-based MS-13.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) joined Democrats in slamming the attacks and raised concern that innocent people could be getting killed.

Even Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated congressional approval may be needed for the Trump administration’s go-it-alone campaign in the Caribbean. In an interview last week, Thune told us Congress should weigh in if the United States enters into “sustained” military action against the cartels.

— Max Cohen

THE MONEY GAME

We have two major Georgia Senate fundraising updates:

Derek Dooley, the former college football coach backed by GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, raised $1.85 million in Q3. Dooley has $1.7 million on hand.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) raised $1.9 million in Q3 and transferred an additional $1 million from his House campaign. Collins has $2.4 million on hand.

In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) raised $2.2 million in the third quarter for her Senate run. Craig has $3 million on hand.

— Max Cohen

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