It’s Day 10 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight for this crisis.
For a moment on Thursday, there was a glimmer of hope that the Senate could find a path out of the shutdown. But by the end of the night, senators were heading home for a four-day weekend more entrenched than at any point since the impasse began.
The possibility of a lengthy shutdown is growing more realistic by the day barring some dramatic shift. President Donald Trump may have to be the one to initiate that about face, although he’s been preoccupied with the Israel-Hamas peace deal, immigration and tariff fights, and sending National Guard troops into Democratic-run cities, among other things.
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told us on Fly Out Day that he thinks the shutdown will last until at least Nov. 1, when open enrollment begins.
One thing that hasn’t stopped is fundraising, however. The DSCC’s Napa Valley retreat, scheduled for Oct. 13-14, is still on. DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) will still attend.
There’s also a big Senate GOP bash scheduled in Kiawah Island, S.C., starting this evening and running through Sunday. Senate Majority Leader John Thune was supposed to attend, but he’s since pulled out.
Searching for an escape hatch. Senate Republican leaders on Thursday discussed giving Democrats a commitment for a vote on extending the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits in exchange for their support to reopen the government. These credits expire at the end of the year, threatening the health-care coverage for millions.
There were no formal talks with Democrats about this plan, however. Senators from both parties who’ve been informally huddling on the Obamacare subsidies quickly batted the idea down.
Democrats want to negotiate on the specifics of an Obamacare bill that would get a vote, as well as a guarantee it would clear both chambers. Republicans say they can’t and won’t make such a promise. They demand that Democrats first vote to reopen the government and then negotiations can begin.
Now it’s back to square one.
Senate Democrats blocked the House-passed Nov. 21 funding bill for the seventh time on Thursday night. After passing the annual defense authorization bill — a surprisingly bipartisan move in the middle of the hyper-partisan atmosphere — the Senate left town until Tuesday.
Their departure all but guarantees that 1.3 million active-duty troops won’t get their Oct. 15 paychecks. Organizations advocating for the National Guard, Reserves and enlisted personnel wrote a letter to House and Senate leaders Thursday, urging them to pass a standalone troop pay bill. But it doesn’t appear that effort’s going anywhere, even with a growing number of lawmakers in both chambers calling for it.
Civilian federal employees will start missing paychecks today. The pain of this shutdown is spreading.
And if you thought the two sides couldn’t dig their heels in any further, think again.
Thune moved to prevent additional votes on Democrats’ Oct. 31 funding proposal, which has been getting a vote alongside the House-passed measure. Thune is no longer allowing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to tee up the Democratic alternative for votes.
Senate Democrats still have one more opportunity to force a vote on their measure. But it has zero chance of becoming law, and Thune is putting his foot down.
Senate dynamics. As we wrote on Thursday, Democrats are pleading with Trump to nudge Thune to cut a deal with them on Obamacare subsidies in order to reopen the government. Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson won’t move off their “Open-the-government-first-
Aside from a White House meeting with the Big Four congressional leaders, Trump has been largely disengaged from the crisis. Now he’s heading to the Middle East. As important as the Gaza ceasefire deal is, it’s also hard to imagine any other American president leaving the country under these circumstances.
“He’s going to have to be involved because the Republicans just listen to him, nobody else,” retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said of Trump.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who’s been leading the informal bipartisan talks on an extension of Obamacare subsidies, said Thursday she plans to continue voting against the GOP CR until there’s a formal leadership-level negotiation that includes the White House.
“I am not aware of any official talks going on on the part of anybody. That’s the problem,” Shaheen said. “Until they do that, we’re not gonna make progress.”
Shaheen, who’s also retiring, has been holding out as she seeks assurances on a path forward for a bipartisan Obamacare deal. GOP leaders have repeatedly said they can’t guarantee that such a deal will materialize, and they’ve called on Democrats to stop holding the government “hostage” in the meantime.
“I don’t really know if [Democrats] are in a position to negotiate right now,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who’s been involved in the informal cross-party talks.
Democrats believe pressure will continue to mount on Republicans to do something about the Obamacare cliff — especially since many of them are already wary of the political ramifications of allowing these subsidies to lapse. It’s true that many Republicans want to see an extension, even if that includes significant reforms and an eventual phase-out.
“There are a lot of Republican members that want an outcome, not just a failed vote for messaging purposes,” retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “Even President Trump stated that he feels like we need to get a solution. So, it’s not just a minority of members here. It’s over at the White House, too.”
But Tillis added that he doesn’t see a path to end the shutdown that’s contingent on an Obamacare-related vote. That’s simply an acknowledgement of reality.
