Today is Day 20 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to the crisis.
This is now the third-longest government shutdown in U.S. history. It’s already the longest full government shutdown ever. The 2018-2019 (partial) shutdown lasted 35 days, while the 1995-96 spending impasse (also partial) lasted 21 days.
The House has been out of session for more than a month, a stunning development for a Republican Conference that’s bragged about its work ethic. House committees are completely frozen, giving up valuable time that they won’t be able to recoup this Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson has said that he won’t bring the chamber back into session until the government shutdown ends.
It’s trite and perhaps a bit understated to say that this will be a critical week for ending the shutdown. Every week is critical with 750,000 furloughed federal employees. But a few dynamics make the next few days especially important.
President Donald Trump — mostly checked out during the standoff — leaves Friday for Asia after spending the weekend at his Palm Beach, Fla., home. The White House feels as if it’s winning the political fight. So if Congress wants to get Trump’s attention, this is the moment to do so.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been practically begging Trump to get involved in negotiating a deal to extend the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Trump, though, has easily resisted these calls and is letting Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune run the shutdown strategy.
Off-ramp? We’ve written about how Nov. 1, the start of open enrollment for health insurance, could be a moment for Senate Democrats to declare “victory” and allow the government to reopen. Last week, top Democrats pushed back on this theory, saying Nov. 1 will only increase the pressure on Republicans to accede to their health care demands.
But now, there’s a sense within the Senate Democratic Caucus that this deadline is in fact their off-ramp to end the shutdown. Democrats can argue it’s no longer feasible for Congress to address the expiring Obamacare subsidies legislatively. The goal here would be to make Republicans own the soaring premium hikes and health-care coverage losses that millions of Americans would experience.
If Democrats are willing to accept a political victory without a policy win, this is a critical moment for Schumer to figure out what this looks like — and how he shields himself from inevitable criticism from the left. What does Schumer demand in exchange for Democratic votes to reopen the government? Is it a vote on extending the subsidies? Will Schumer cut loose some moderates and retiring Democrats? How does he message this publicly?
House Democrats have been led to believe that this shutdown could end with a legislative victory. So the cross-chamber invective will be especially sharp.
No decision has been made by Democratic leaders at this point. But with the shutdown dragging on and the real-world consequences compounding, many Democrats see this as a reasonable exit strategy.
Senate action. The Senate will vote tonight for the 11th time on the House-passed CR. It will fail. The more interesting vote this week will be on a GOP bill to pay federal workers who have been forced to work without pay, including members of the military. That vote is likely to happen on Wednesday or Thursday.
While a few Democratic senators will probably vote for this measure, led by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), we don’t expect it to get 60 votes. Democrats believe this is a “show vote” on a bill that would give new funding to Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought to use as they please.
Cash crunch. Federal employees are slated to miss their first full paycheck this week. Federal employees are scheduled to get paid on Oct. 24. This pay period covers Oct. 4 through Oct. 18, and the government was shuttered that entire time.
The Congressional Federal Credit Union, which serves many Hill employees, is already offering “furlough solutions” – “fast relief built for shutdowns.”
There are concerns that air traffic controllers could begin not showing up for work without getting paid, snarling the nation’s already troubled aviation system.
Small business loans have stalled, as have loans to farmers, with U.S. Department of Agriculture offices closed nationwide.
Still hanging over all of this is Vought’s threat to lay off 10,000 federal workers. Roughly 4,200 have been laid off during the shutdown.
WIC and SNAP. WIC and SNAP, the massive federal nutrition programs that help feed millions of Americans, are in danger as well.
Trump administration officials have said they’re filling WIC’s coffers with tariff money to tide the program over during the shutdown. But there are warning signals nationwide.
In New Jersey, the state government has issued the following warning:
New Jersey was notified by the federal government that if the shutdown continues, November 2025 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits may not be available on time.
It is unclear if SNAP benefits loaded on your Families First EBT card prior to October 31, 2025 will be able to be used after November 1, 2025.
We could see governors forced to call special sessions to deal with the crisis.
Senate GOP to W.H. Senate Republicans will have lunch with Trump in the Rose Garden on Tuesday, as we scooped last night for Punchbowl News text subscribers. The lunch is designed for Trump to praise Senate Republicans for backing the president’s nominees – and sticking together during the shutdown.
