Thune's pressure test

IN THIS EDITION

Thune’s multi-front pile up

Could this be Cherfilus-McCormick’s last week in Congress?

Senate wades apprehensively into FISA slog

What we’re watching

A McCarthy speaker race tell all

THE TOP

Thune’s multi-front pile up

Happy Tuesday morning.

House Republicans’ FISA debacle and their ongoing refusal to pass legislation to end the unprecedented Department of Homeland Security shutdown have made clear that there’s only one functional chamber on Capitol Hill right now — the Senate. And it’s barely so.

This is putting a ton of new pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, whose majority is suddenly at risk. President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings and the GOP’s inability to notch legislative wins due to constant infighting are a burden too.

Plus, Thune is dealing with a MAGA onslaught over the SAVE America Act, a relentless push to gut the filibuster and an Iranian war that’s exacerbating affordability concerns while providing Democrats with new political ammo.

Despite the unique set of challenges, Thune is doubling down on his easy-going leadership style — even as Senate GOP leaders are privately fuming at their House counterparts for dumping many of these crises in their laps.

“They’ve got their limitations, and so do we,” Thune told us Monday. “So we’ve just got to figure it out.”

Inside the conference. The SAVE America Act is a touchy subject inside the Senate GOP Conference. The bill, which requires photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, doesn’t have a path to passage.

But that hasn’t stopped some Senate Republicans — namely Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) — from ginning up anger at Thune among MAGA followers online. Thune decided to hold a prolonged floor debate as a way to placate conservatives and, indirectly, try to prove that their preferred method of passing the bill — the so-called “talking filibuster” — was unrealistic.

Trump made it even harder for Thune by injecting an issue into the debate — restricting mail-in ballots — that deeply divides Republicans. Democrats, led by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), exploited those divisions.

Suddenly, any attempt at a messaging vote to make Democrats look unreasonable for opposing voter ID was no longer as effective.

Yet Thune on Monday said the Senate might return to the controversial bill after reconciliation, FISA and another Trump nominations package. Restarting the SAVE debate would require another procedural vote. And it’s unclear whether MAGA world and Lee — who is calling for nuking the filibuster to pass SAVE — would even be satisfied with additional floor debate.

“John is playing footsie with MAGA on the SAVE Act. Nothing he does will ever satisfy them,” said a GOP senator who was granted anonymity to deliver a candid assessment. “Why are we carrying on with this charade?”

Senators don’t take kindly to outside pressure campaigns like the ones Lee has been amplifying on social media. And according to multiple GOP senators, Lee rarely — if ever — speaks up during closed-door conference meetings, which is normally the forum to persuade colleagues.

Reconciliation. Republicans did a big messaging push last week for Tax Day, centered on the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump also hit the road to tout “no tax on tips.” But this barely broke through amid Trump’s Iran war whiplash and his feud with the pope.

It’s all fueling a push to expand the GOP’s current budget reconciliation bill beyond just ICE and Border Patrol — or pass another reconciliation bill in the fall — to give Republicans “more issues that we can run on and contrast with the Democrats,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s in the middle of a bruising primary.

Thune opposes expanding the current reconciliation bill beyond immigration enforcement funding. Democrats blocked ICE funding after January’s fatal shootings of protesters by federal officers. Thune believes that would over-complicate what’s already a politically fraught process. And Thune is likely to get his way.

“It’s all about the math. It’s, what can you get 50 [in the Senate] and 218 [in the House] for?” Thune said. “And in this environment, that’s going to be challenging, to say the least.”

Those Republicans who wanted to go bigger aren’t going quietly. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Thune is “a very able guy” yet criticized him for believing it was possible to negotiate a deal on ICE reforms with Democrats, wasting precious time.

“I admire [Thune’s] optimism,” Kennedy told us. “But it didn’t work. So here we are.”

News on Dems’ plans. Reconciliation allows Democrats to force an unlimited number of politically uncomfortable votes as part of a vote-a-rama. The first of two will come later this week.

In an interview, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats will use it to hammer their affordability messaging, focusing on gas prices, health care and more.

“How did we get here? Not because we wanted to do this. They just can’t govern,” Schumer told us. “They gave us this opportunity. And we’re going to make maximum use of it by focusing on costs.”

News — An Emmer departure: Dennis Nalls, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s floor director, is leaving Capitol Hill for S-3 Group, a top lobbying shop that represents clients such as Google, Boeing and Koch Industries.

Floor director is one of the most critical roles for the House GOP whip. Nalls’ departure will cause some shuffling inside Emmer’s office. Emily Ackerman will become floor director, Justin Shockey will be named deputy floor director and Jack Garland will be promoted to floor assistant. Emmer is expected to announce the moves at the House Republican Conference meeting this morning.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

TODAY: Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.) joins us at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and American leadership in wireless, spectrum and AI. RSVP!

And don’t miss our latest edition of the Tally, in your inboxes at 10 a.m. We’ll have a report on the Georgia Senate Republican primary, a list of the Democrats most at risk of a primary defeat and a special edition of the Power Matrix. Plus, all the details on our new FEC tracker, launching in the Portal.

ETHICS

Could this be Cherfilus-McCormick’s last week in Congress?

This week could spell the end of indicted Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s (Fla.) controversial stint in Congress.

On Tuesday afternoon, the House Ethics Committee will meet to determine what sanctions the panel will recommend to the House. Expulsion is clearly on the table.

Even senior Congressional Black Caucus members have privately pressed Cherfilus-McCormick, now in her third term, to resign rather than face a potential expulsion. The Florida Democrat has rebuffed these pleas, which continued throughout the weekend, according to sources close to the issue.

Cherfilus-McCormick and her defense attorney will be able to make a presentation to the Ethics Committee during the public session today. Counsel for the committee will offer a presentation as well. It’s unclear if Cherfilus-McCormick will. She didn’t at her recent ethics “trial.”

Then the 10-member Ethics Committee — the only evenly divided panel in the chamber — will retire to deliberate on what punishment it will recommend to the full House. We don’t expect any public announcement until Wednesday, but the secretive panel can do whatever it wants.

In March, a special Ethics subcommittee found Cherfilus-McCormick guilty of 25 ethics violations following the rare “trial.” This came after the Justice Department indicted the Florida Democrat in November 2025 for allegedly stealing $5 million in FEMA funds and making illegal campaign contributions. The criminal proceedings are slated to begin in February in Miami.

How will the Ethics Committee rule here? In a report authored by the committee’s counsel, the Ethics Committee lawyers noted that Cherfilus-McCormick’s alleged conduct “sets her apart from any prior Member due to the sheer volume of funds involved, totaling in the millions.”

“The 25 violations at issue here are very serious standing on their own,” the Ethics Committee’s lawyers added. “The scope and continuous nature of the conduct, as well as Respondent’s failure to take responsibility for wrongdoing, may be considered as aggravating factors.”

The report also points out that many members accused of similar wrongdoing have chosen to resign rather than face sanction by the House.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will be a crucial player here. Jeffries told us he’s “of course” concerned about the allegations made against Cherfilus-McCormick. Jeffries said the Democratic Caucus will convene following the Ethics Committee’s recommendation and “proceed in a manner consistent with our approach to these types of ethics matters.”

But Jeffries is in a tough spot because of the historic distrust the CBC has for the Ethics panel.

Another wrinkle: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is vowing to introduce an expulsion resolution against Cherfilus-McCormick this week without waiting for an Ethics recommendation.

Tit for tat? If Cherfilus-McCormick is targeted for expulsion, the House may also be forced to move against GOP Rep. Cory Mills (Fla.). Mills is currently under an Ethics investigation for “sexual misconduct and/or dating violence.”

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) introduced an expulsion resolution against Mills on Monday. Mace hasn’t yet noticed the privileged resolution, so a vote date isn’t set yet.

Republicans may close ranks around Mills because his Ethics investigation is still underway. And Jeffries on Monday poured cold water on supporting Mills’ expulsion during an ongoing Ethics probe.

“We are waiting on a determination by the Ethics Committee with respect to Cory Mills, and it’s my hope that the determination is expedited so we can take up his fate on the House floor,” Jeffries said.

– Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

SPY AUTHORITY

Senate wades apprehensively into FISA slog

Congress is being dragged, kicking and screaming, back into a warrant requirement fight tied to the reauthorization of a key surveillance authority.

Senators are open — but hardly eager — to lead the way on reauthorizing FISA Section 702 following House Republicans’ stunning failure last week. They’re resigned that anything to re-up the program must ultimately now pass muster with a bloc of hardline House conservatives determined to make significant changes to the program, which expires on April 30.

“Obviously, the bottleneck here is the House,” Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said. “What can pass there that is workable and would be supported in the Senate?”

Republican senators acknowledged the bicameral and bipartisan appetite for further changes to the highly scrutinized program. The White House has pushed for a clean, 18-month extension. But a rule to allow for consideration of that plan couldn’t clear the House amid opposition from 20 GOP lawmakers.

“My guess is we’re going to want some more reform. And the question is how much and how quickly,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. “I think if we pass something, that puts a lot of pressure on my friends in the House to pass it.”

Senate GOP leaders indicated they’d made no decisions yet, but that any changes would have to be agreed to by both chambers.

“For some people, they want to do some tweaks on it,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a member of leadership also on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “Every tweak’s got to be vetted, and you got to figure out, how long does that take?”

Conservatives on the House Freedom Caucus said Monday they had no plans to waver on their demands for a warrant requirement as part of a compromise bill.

Leading House Democrats say they’d be open to making a deal with Republicans, but they warned the window for bipartisanship may be closing.

“Frankly, we’re behind where we were a week ago,” Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, the ranking Democrat of the Intelligence Committee, said. “The insane performance on Thursday night created a lot of bad will.”

Senate hurdles await. Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), leading voices for FISA reforms, vowed Monday they won’t allow speedy consideration of any deal without changes for warrants and other privacy protections.

“If they want to condense time, they’ll have to let us have an amendment” on warrants, Paul said. “It’s disappointing, though, that most of the people have been abused by the system — have actually been spied on — have now capitulated and said, ‘Oh, well.’”

— Anthony Adragna and Briana Reilly

📆

What we’re watching

Referendum day. Virginia voters will head to the polls to decide whether the state will adopt new congressional maps that could give Democrats up to four new House seats. We’ll have much more in our latest edition of the Tally, out at 10 a.m.

The Senate. Senate Budget Committee Republicans will meet at 9:30 a.m. on the GOP effort to fund ICE and Border Patrol through reconciliation. Senate GOP leaders could put the budget resolution that kicks off the process on the floor as soon as today.

Senate Democrats will force a vote on an Iran war powers resolution from Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). That effort is again expected to fall short.

Senate Republicans and Democrats each have their weekly party lunches, followed by leadership news conferences.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright is in front of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee at 9:30 a.m.

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing kicks off at 10 a.m.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will appear at a Senate Appropriations subcommittee at 2:30 p.m.

The House. Republicans and Democrats will huddle separately for their weekly caucus meetings. House GOP leadership will hold a 10 a.m. presser. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar will brief reporters at 11 a.m.

The House Ethics Committee will hold a public hearing at 2 p.m. on potential punishment — including expulsion — for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.).

Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) will hold a 2 p.m. press conference on budget reconciliation and immigration reform.

Around Washington. The Pentagon will be rolling out the details of its $1.5 trillion FY2027 budget request starting at 10 a.m.

President Donald Trump will appear on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” at 8:30 a.m.

— Briana Reilly, Laura Weiss and Max Cohen

SNEAK PEEK

A McCarthy speaker race tell all

John Leganski, a top aide to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has written a book about his experience getting the California Republican through 15 rounds of voting to become speaker of the House in 2023.

Leganski, the former deputy chief of staff to McCarthy, will release “Glory, Grief, and the Gavel: An Inside Guide to Running for Speaker of the House” on June 23.

We have a copy of the book, which traces McCarthy’s ascent through the leadership to the speakership. It’s a fascinating look at McCarthy’s political career, internal GOP fights and vote counting.

It has a lot of juice about McCarthy and all the players who may run the House in the coming years, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

Congressional aides don’t typically write books telling what happened behind the scenes. So this will be an interesting book for many in the House Republican Conference — and beyond — to read.

– Jake Sherman

MONEY GAME

The Senate and House GOP campaign committees both outraised their Democratic counterparts in March.

The NRCC raised $28.2 million to the DCCC’s $21.5 million. The NRSC raised $15.6 million to the DSCC’s $12.4 million.

Both groups also had more money in the bank at the end of March. Senate Republicans had $6.5 million more in cash on hand. House Republicans had $8.3 million more.

On the super PAC side, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC had raised $63.9 million by the end of March. That’s nearly $30 million less than the Congressional Leadership Fund’s $91.4 million.

The Senate GOP super PAC had nearly $92 million more in the bank than Senate Democrats’ super PAC as of March 31.

– Ally Mutnick