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May 31, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Kevin McCarthy’s first term as speaker will, in large part, be defined by what happens today on the House floor.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act — which cuts spending by at least $1.5 trillion and raises the debt limit until Jan. 1, 2025 — will be up for a vote tonight at around 8:30 p.m. This is after Wall Street is closed for the day.
There are three major concerns — or better yet, areas of focus — for McCarthy and his GOP leadership team.
No. 1: McCarthy doesn’t appear to have a full-scale revolt on his hands, but he has a healthy pocket of conservative Republican opposition to the package. That will make passing the rule — the procedural hurdle that sets the terms for debate and allows the leadership to bring a bill to the floor — difficult. And he may need Democratic support to do it.
Typically a rule vote is carried by the majority party, and the majority party alone — it’s almost a core principle on Capitol Hill. But in this instance, that might be tricky. With only a five-vote GOP margin, conservatives can easily bring the rule down.
So McCarthy’s leadership team may have to go hat in hand to Democrats to provide some votes to clear the rule. As of Tuesday night, GOP leaders hadn’t made that ask. But both Democratic and Republican leadership aides believe this will happen.
No. 2: GOP leadership needs to maximize its vote total today. McCarthy needs a minimum of 112 Republicans to vote for this package today — the majority of the House GOP majority.
But, in reality, McCarthy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer want the Republican vote total to edge closer to between 140 and 150 out of a total of 222 possible members. No one in the GOP leadership is committing to that publicly, however.
“Of course we want all Republicans to vote yes on all the bills. But on this bill, I think we’re going to get a majority of the majority,” Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), the chief deputy whip, told us. Reschenthaler, though, declined to provide a number.
No. 3: That brings us to the third concern. Should McCarthy fail to garner the majority of the majority, conservatives are signaling they may move against him.
Team McCarthy believes that the conservative angst is overblown and something they can overcome. The speaker’s allies believe the deal that McCarthy cut with President Joe Biden is the best that any speaker could get in a divided government. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the speaker’s most important conservative supporter outside leadership, was outspoken in his defense of McCarthy on a conference call Saturday night and again Tuesday night.
In fact, one of the most vocal no votes among Republicans — South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman — said this to the leadership last night in announcing his opposition to the bill: “Y’all did the best you could and probably better than I could.”
Since the early 2010s, conservatives have come to believe that if they only hold out longer and provoke some kind of crisis, they could extract more from a Democratic president. It didn’t work with defunding Obamacare and it wouldn’t work this time, either.
In a closed-door meeting Tuesday night, McCarthy did his best to declare victory — and convince his colleagues that they should as well.
“I’m going to go on record and vote for the biggest spending cuts in history,” McCarthy said to applause.
Here’s more McCarthy:
Remember that McCarthy’s opposition won’t necessarily be quiet if he does get a majority of the majority. Their demands will shift. What McCarthy can hope for is members to calm down over the next week or so.
Dems in semi-array: This morning, House Democrats will hear from the White House’s negotiators, OMB Director Shalanda Young and Steve Ricchetti, counselor to the president. Aviva Aron-Dine, deputy director of the National Economic Council and John Podesta, a senior White House clean energy adviser, will also address the closed-door caucus meeting.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has made clear that it’s up to McCarthy to deliver a majority of the votes for this package. And there’s some consternation in the Democratic Caucus, with a number of progressives telling us they’re either planning to vote no or are undecided.
Still, we expect a good number of moderate Democrats to vote yes. Democratic aides pointed to the small number of their members who’ve actually said they’ll vote against the bill as a positive sign.
But Democrats do want to make McCarthy sweat a little. House Democrats likely will wait on the floor to see how many votes Republicans put up before pitching in. Jeffries made clear all day Tuesday that they need 150 Republicans to vote for the deal.
News: In a good sign for the bill’s future, the Problem Solvers Caucus is endorsing the debt-limit deal. Per Problem Solvers rules, this means at least 75% of the group — with at least half support coming from both parties — will back the package.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Heather Caygle and Max Cohen
Reminder: We’re two weeks away from our conversation with Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will interview him about digital equity and opportunity. RSVP here to join us on Tuesday, June 13 at 9 a.m. ET, in person or on the livestream!
THE UPPER CHAMBER
Senate looks to avoid weekend votes ahead of Monday default deadline
The Senate could be in for a long weekend of procedural and amendment votes on the debt-limit bill, a saga that would bring the U.S. government right up to the edge of the June 5 default deadline — or even past it.
Senate leaders in both parties are already gaming out how to avoid this outcome.
If you read Punchbowl News, chances are you know that the Senate operates largely on unanimous consent, and any individual senator can slow down the legislative process for days. The earliest the Senate could pass the debt-limit bill without a time agreement would be the middle of next week.
This is something the vast majority of senators — even many of those who will ultimately oppose the Fiscal Responsibility Act — want to prevent. But first, several senators are demanding votes on amendments.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he’s not interested in delaying what he sees as the inevitable passage of the Biden-McCarthy compromise package. But Paul wants a vote on his proposal to enact stringent spending cuts, even if he knows it’ll fail.
“If we get no [votes on] amendments, we’ll be here until next Tuesday,” Paul told us. “[But] I don’t think it will matter. I don’t think there are 50 votes. I think about half of the Republican caucus will support mine. No Democrats will support it. But the American people need to know that that’s where we are.”
“I don’t think it does anything to change the trajectory of borrowing and spending,” added Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who backs Paul’s plan, of the amendment push. “No one’s interested in a default.”
There’s hope among senators that they can wrap this up by Friday night so that they don’t leave the financial markets in a state of agitation all weekend. But this would require a ton of cooperation from both sides, and the Senate will only be able to begin processing the legislation on Thursday — assuming the House passes it later today.
Paul isn’t the only one who’s looking for amendment votes. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) wants to strip the Mountain Valley Pipeline approval from the bill, as we reported on Monday. And GOP hawks will look to boost the defense spending cap, which senators on both sides have said amounts to a cut in military funding when inflation is factored in.
“I think the topline is insufficient,” said Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), top Republican on the Appropriations Committee. “It doesn’t begin to cover inflation.”
Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) indicated he’s already looking for ways to get around that defense cap of $886 billion — namely through a supplemental funding bill later this year for Ukraine and other initiatives.
“They’ve built this incredible mouse trap that we have to figure out,” Reed said. “With Ukraine, you’re going to have to have a supplemental. We might put some other stuff in, too.” (Good luck getting a Ukraine supplemental through the House, by the way).
One thing we’re not seeing so far is an explicit demand from progressives, who were fuming over the legislation on Tuesday. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), for example, said she was undecided on whether to ultimately support the bill or if she’d try to slow down the process. But Warren slammed the package as “bad, bad, bad.”
Here’s Warren:
— Andrew Desiderio
THE MAJORITY MAKERS
Don Davis navigates tough political terrain with local focus
For freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), the answer to almost any question involves a call back to his eastern North Carolina district. It’s a tried and tested strategy for endangered House Democrats such as Davis — focus intensely on local issues in a bid to win reelection.
While Davis’ playbook may be familiar among Frontliners, his political position is anything but. With North Carolina’s GOP-controlled state legislature set to redraw the House map, many Tar Heel State Democrats are nervously facing the prospect of an aggressive gerrymander cutting them out of their seats. Republicans could net three or more seats via this process, a huge shift in a House delegation that’s currently evenly split 7-7.
But Davis says he’s not focused on the new lines.
“I’ve gotten this question several times and my response remains consistent,” Davis told us. “I really believe to my core that if I come in every single day that I’m given to serve and represent residents of eastern North Carolina, no matter how the district is drawn, people will have an opportunity to evaluate my service, my leadership… I haven’t got at all into redistricting.”
Davis, a 51-year-old Air Force veteran who served in the North Carolina state Senate for more than a decade, won his House seat in November by 5 points. The district was previously represented by longtime Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.) and now has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of just D+2.
An interesting wrinkle in the redistricting fight comes from reporting that Davis’ strong relationships with his state Senate colleagues may spare the freshman from a brutal new map.
Davis has been making all the right moves for a vulnerable Democrat. Earlier this month, he visited the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville and McAllen, Texas. Davis has also become a semi-regular presence on Fox News.
And as the debt-limit fight raged in Washington, Davis focused on his military perspective to argue against defaulting.
“The best way that we can help surviving family members, those who served in trenches alongside these fallen heroes, is for us in D.C., even in a divided Congress, to do the right thing and make certain that America does not default,” Davis said.
Davis makes clear he wants to represent his district’s rural interests in a place where he says many residents feel “overlooked” and “forgotten.” His legislative priorities include the farm bill, expanding Medicaid in North Carolina and protecting veterans’ health care.
It’s a governing philosophy that drew praise from Davis’ fellow North Carolina freshman representative, Frontline Rep. Wiley Nickel (D).
“Don’s really someone who knows how to win tough seats, and has been doing it for quite a while,” Nickel said. “He’s someone that I love working with on a lot of these bipartisan issues.”
On a number of hot-button votes, Davis has voted with Republicans, most notably on D.C. crime bill disapproval resolution and the recent POLICE Act, which would make assaulting a police officer or first responder a deportable offense.
But the NRCC doesn’t see Davis’ voting record that way. Here’s spokesperson Delanie Bomar:
— Max Cohen
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INVESTIGATION NATION
Comer says he’s ready to go after Wray
Despite the debt-limit news dominating the Capitol, there were plenty of oversight developments on Tuesday.
House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) vowed to initiate contempt of Congress proceedings against FBI Director Christopher Wray. Wray failed to comply with Comer’s subpoena deadline to hand over an internal FBI document that allegedly contained details of a bribery scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden.
But hours before Comer went public with his contempt plans, the FBI wrote to the committee chair with an offer.
“Recognizing your latest letter’s request for a response by May 30, the FBI can confirm that we have identified additional information that we are prepared to offer the Committee as an extraordinary accommodation,” the FBI’s acting legislative affairs chief Christopher Dunham wrote.
Comer and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are scheduled to speak with Wray today in what will likely be a tense call.
Democrats have pointed out that Comer moved straight to a subpoena before issuing a formal request for the document. And then Comer followed up with a contempt threat shortly thereafter. This is in stark contrast to House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul’s (R-Texas) approach to threatening to hold Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt.
Covid oversight: Over in the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) announced CDC Director Rochelle Walensky will publicly testify on June 13. According to a source familiar with negotiations, Walensky’s appearance was only prompted after the subcommittee threatened to subpoena her to force testimony.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) campaign has already cut an ad from his presidential launch event. The spot is running in Iowa.
Remember Joe Lieberman? He’s in a new No Labels ad in Maine, urging people to join their organization.
— Jake Sherman
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