The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Tester, Brown say Biden won’t drag them down

Clyburn hits the road to help Biden with Black voters

The Vault: Bipartisan group takes aim at EV rules

Forget impeachment. It’s Garland contempt time

THE TOP

Tester, Brown say Biden won’t drag them down

Happy Thursday morning.

If Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) have any hope of winning reelection in their red states, they’ll need to outrun President Joe Biden by massive margins.

Both are convinced they can. But that’s easier said than done.

Relying on a mix of key issues and their own long-standing records back home, Tester and Brown believe they can still triumph even though former President Donald Trump is likely to win big in both Montana and Ohio.

In an interview, Tester — the most endangered Senate Democrat — said it doesn’t matter how large Trump’s margin of victory is on Election Day. The three-term incumbent proclaimed he can outrun Biden by “unlimited amounts.”

“The reason is because I’ve got my own brand. I’m not running [Biden’s] race,” Tester told us. “Joe’s going to run his own race. Trump’s going to run his own race… Bottom line is, we’re going to do what’s right for Montana.”

It won’t be that simple. For one, Trump will win Montana and Ohio handily. Republicans also see ticket-splitting as a much rarer phenomenon in 2024 than it once was. And most importantly, when Tester and Brown were last on the ballot, it wasn’t a presidential year and they both faced deeply flawed challengers.

“Neither Jon Tester nor Sherrod Brown have been on the ballot with President Trump, who will win Montana by probably close to 20 points. He’ll probably win Ohio by close to 10 points,” NRSC Chair Steve Daines said. “There is less ticket-splitting going on.”

Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2016, and by 16 points in 2020. A poll from The Hill and Emerson College had Trump up by a similar margin in early March. Tester, however, was up by two points over likely Republican opponent Tim Sheehy.

The party primaries are June 4. Tester and Sheehy are scheduled to have their first debate on June 9.

Tester is playing up his deep Montana roots, the tens of millions of dollars in federal funds he’s steered back home and his positions on abortion, affordable housing, Social Security and veterans’ care. Sheehy is relying on his support from Trump, his military record and the fact that he’s a novice running for political office for the first time.

Yet Tester’s other big problem will be the tsunami of TV ads between now and November. There’s already $120 million worth of ads from both sides reserved for the Montana Senate race, a mind-blowing figure for a state of just 1.1 million people.

Dems plot long-shot: The Democratic leadership’s strategy to boost vulnerable incumbents like Tester and Brown involves highlighting Republicans’ rejection of the bipartisan border security deal earlier this year.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer keeps hinting he’ll bring it up for a vote. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is reintroducing the package as a standalone bill in advance of a potential vote.

“The American people need to see that Democrats want to solve the problem and Republicans are unwilling to actually take any action to back up their rhetoric,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters said.

Tester has leaned into the issue, announcing his support last week for a GOP immigration bill he previously voted against as part of the FY2024 spending fight. Voting in favor would have tanked the funding bill.

Here’s what Tester said when we noted that this is all — obviously — about election-year politics:

Republicans say they’re not concerned about Schumer’s moves. Senate Minority Whip John Thune said Democrats’ strategy won’t work because the politics surrounding border security is already “baked in.”

For his part, Brown said “we ought to pass” the border security bill and “it’s for the pundits to judge” whether it helps him politically.

Trump won Ohio by eight points in both 2016 and 2020. This year isn’t likely to be much different. The few polls in the Buckeye State show Trump winning by an average of 10 points. Bernie Moreno, Brown’s GOP opponent, got through a hard-fought primary with Trump’s help. Brown is up in the few polls in that race.

Brown — a populist in his own right — has leaned on other issues as well to show independence from his party. Earlier this month, Brown criticized the Biden administration’s new rules for electric vehicle tax credits. Brown also said the administration’s announcement this week on China tariffs didn’t go far enough. And he’s among the most pro-union and anti-corporate Democrats on the Hill.

News: Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) are leading a group of House Democrats urging Speaker Mike Johnson to reconsider his decision not to invite Kenyan President William Ruto to address Congress. Here’s the letter.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

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2024 ELECTION

Clyburn hits the road to help Biden with Black voters

News: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) is embarking on a cross-country tour to help President Joe Biden shore up his support among Black voters in swing states.

Clyburn will speak directly to Black voters about Biden’s accomplishments even as the president faces worrisome polling showing he’s struggling with voters of color. The 83-year-old Clyburn insists it’s not accurate, however.

“I don’t know what this polling is all about,” Clyburn said in an interview. “Joe Biden does not have a problem with Black voters. Whatever you hear to the contrary, that’s just not true.”

Clyburn, who stepped down from House Democratic leadership this year, spent last weekend in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia talking to voters at Black churches and local Democratic party events. He warned there is a lot at risk this election and made the case for why they should turn out for Biden. Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Pa.) joined Clyburn to reach Black workers at union halls.

Clyburn has also been addressing historically Black universities on the importance of voting in this election. Last Friday, he introduced Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at South Carolina State University.

“I want young people to look at this year’s campaign and be selfish about their vote,” Clyburn said.

Clyburn is also expected to go to Ohio, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada later this year.

The campaign: The Biden campaign is highlighting its efforts to sway Black voters directly through digital, print and radio ads. In August, the campaign launched a $25 million advertising campaign to reach Black audiences in swing states.

The campaign is launching another $14 million ad blitz this month targeting voters of color in battleground states.

So far this year, Biden has done local radio shows with large Black audiences in South Carolina, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia. Vice President Kamala Harris has done countless such events as well over her three-plus years in office.

Top campaign surrogates include Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), among others.

The Trump angle: Democrats’ efforts to secure support for Biden among Black voters come amid a simultaneous push by former President Donald Trump to make inroads with the same group.

A pro-Trump group aired an ad in the Macon, Ga., market earlier this month that hits at Biden’s struggling support among the key voting bloc.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) said he believes Black voters could be the ones that push Trump over the finish line to beat Biden.

“This is the voting bloc that’s actually going to do it,” Hunt told us. “For those people that are concerned about President Trump losing suburban women, this is the delta that will get made up in November.”

But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said he’s confident Black voters are going to come home to Biden as the cycle continues.

“I believe that President Biden will secure the overwhelming majority of Black support in November,” Jeffries told us.

— Mica Soellner

The Vault: Bipartisan group takes aim at EV rules

News: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is preparing to introduce a resolution that would throw out the Biden administration’s clean vehicle tax credit rules over concerns about using materials from China.

Reps. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) are leading the Congressional Review Act resolution in the House with Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) doing the same in the Senate, according to a person familiar with the effort. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is also expected to sign on.

Read the draft text of the CRA resolution here.

The Treasury Department and IRS finalized rules earlier this month for new EV tax credits included in the Democrats’ 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. But critics like Manchin and Brown were quick to blast the regulations, arguing they give automakers too much flexibility on sourcing rules meant to force supply chains out of China.

“Our adversaries should not have access to American tax credits, plain and simple,” Miller said in a statement.

The bipartisan backing for the CRA effort is a big deal. It would likely clear both chambers. Manchin and Brown’s votes would be enough for success in the Senate as long as Republican senators are on board.

Remember: CRA resolutions to overturn agency rulemakings get special treatment in the Senate. Supporters can force a floor vote even if leadership isn’t on board.

Eyes on Biden: The CRA effort is the latest headache for the Biden administration as it’s rolling out hundreds of billions of dollars in IRA tax credits for clean energy. Manchin has been a thorn in the administration’s side, repeatedly arguing it’s not following the intent of the IRA.

The administration has had to balance climate and domestic manufacturing goals, particularly with the EV credits. Treasury and IRS offered some flexibility for sourcing critical minerals needed in EV batteries in the final rules. China currently dominates some of the supply chains for those minerals, like graphite, so automakers were worried about being able to access credits in the near term.

But this all comes as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are each trying to pitch themselves to voters as being the toughest on China. In his latest move, Biden this week announced major new tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, solar panels and semiconductors. Those efforts haven’t spared Biden a fight with some Democrats over the EV rules.

Biden has already vetoed a series of CRA resolutions this Congress, including one to nullify a waiver on sourcing requirements for EV chargers.

Manchin said he expected the CRA effort would succeed in the Senate, but conceded that it would still likely face a veto. “[Biden’s] got some radical climate advisers over there telling him some really bad stuff,” Manchin said.

— Laura Weiss

Forget impeachment. It’s Garland contempt time

The top two House Republican investigative committees on Thursday are poised to advance resolutions holding Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress. The latest escalation in the oversight battle between the House and the Biden administration comes as the GOP impeachment inquiry into the president has run out of steam.

Republicans are pursuing contempt after the Justice Department refused to hand over audio tapes from President Joe Biden’s interviews with Special Counsel Robert Hur. The DOJ has steadfastly denied access to the audio files, arguing that turning over these tapes would endanger future prosecutions.

For what it’s worth, the DOJ already released transcripts of the multi-hour interviews. If you recall, Hur investigated Biden over his handling of classified documents and concluded no criminal charges were warranted against the president. But Hur still concluded Biden improperly retained classified national security documents after leaving the vice president’s office in 2016.

In correspondence with Congress, DOJ’s legislative affairs chief argued that the demands from top Republicans represent political point-scoring rather than legitimate oversight.

“The truth is, we want all the evidence because you hear changes in voice inflection and emphasis and all that conversation you don’t get in a transcript,” House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told us.

Democrats aren’t buying this. Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), a Judiciary Democrat, argued that the GOP is only seeking the audio so “they can cut it up and use clips for their support of President Trump’s reelection efforts.”

In his opening statement, ranking member Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) will argue the markup “will almost certainly not convince the Department of Justice to produce the one remaining file in question.”

The Trump show: A group of Republicans who sit on both Oversight and Judiciary are making the pilgrimage to New York City for former President Donald Trump’s trial.

Among those anticipated to be in New York include House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), Florida GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna, Michael Waltz, Matt Gaetz and Reps. Michael Cloud (R-Texas), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.).

As such, the Oversight markup is pushed back to 8 p.m. to accommodate. What a world!

What’s next: The Justice Department won’t pursue criminal contempt charges against Garland. No surprise there. So the Oversight and Judiciary committees will likely sue Garland and DOJ in civil court for failing to turn over the tapes. There’s a good chance the whole case will be stalled until after the end of this Congress.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Former Democratic gubernatorial candidates Brandon Presley and Chris Jones are taking the helm of a PAC aiming to make the party competitive in rural communities.

Presley and Jones are the new co-chairs of the Dirt Road Democrats PAC, which was launched by current DNC Chair Jaime Harrison.

Presley, who nearly toppled incumbent Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves last year, said the most important thing Democrats can do in rural communities is simply show up and campaign.

“If you ignore them, you insult them. And I say that as a rural voter myself,” Presley said. “We’re going to make sure that we help candidates that are willing to go to voters and treat even those that we disagree with decency and respect.”

Jones, who lost to Sarah Huckabee Sanders in 2022, said the group was aiming to build infrastructure for the next couple of years to compete in elections.

Endorsement watch: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is endorsing former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the Michigan Senate race.

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) is backing Emily Randall to succeed retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.).

EMILYs List is endorsing state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet to fill retiring Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-Mich.) seat.

— Max Cohen

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