The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Biden on the brink — and Democratic leaders get ready to move

Overconfident or rightly optimistic? House Rs grapple with their predictions

Could Vance help Senate GOP candidates?

Punchbowl News HQ at the RNC

LaHood says Copa America final chaos can’t happen in 2026

THE TOP

Biden on the brink — and Democratic leaders get ready to move

Happy Friday morning.

President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election is on the brink of collapse.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents this cycle, told the Daily Montanan on Thursday that “President Biden should not seek re-election to another term.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was given a heads up about Tester’s announcement. Schumer told Tester to do whatever he thinks is best, according to a source familiar with the matter.

More than 20 House Democrats have already come out publicly with similar statements, as has Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). More defections are expected in the coming days.

Biden’s fundraising has fallen off a cliff. His poll numbers continue to slide. Even former President Barack Obama thinks Biden should consider getting out, according to the Washington Post.

The New York Times is reporting that Biden “has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race.”

Here’s some news: Inside the Democratic leadership on the Hill, there’s a sense that if Biden doesn’t exit the race by next week, Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will be forced to go public with their misgivings about Biden’s candidacy. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is at her wit’s end too, according to sources who’ve talked to the California Democrat.

The DNC’s virtual roll call to formally renominate Biden could come as soon as Aug. 1, which doesn’t leave much time to get Biden out. But let’s be clear — that’s exactly what a huge number of House and Senate Democrats want.

Former President Donald Trump is sure to get the traditional bump from the GOP convention. Just five days after a failed assassintion attempt, Trump repeatedly hammered Biden’s policies last night in a very long, rambling and often dark acceptance speech, although he largely steered clear of mentioning the president’s name.

“I felt very safe because I had God on my side,” Trump declared as he told the crowd about Saturday’s shooting in a highly emotional rendition of what happened.

Up until now, Schumer and Jeffries haven’t said anything of substance publicly about how they truly feel about Biden. Pelosi – who’s even older than Biden – has emerged as the most visible Democrat pushing the president to leave the race.

Needless to say, Biden has put Schumer and Jeffries in an incredibly difficult position. Still reeling from his disastrous June 27 debate performance, Biden has done nothing to improve his standing since then. Biden — now sidelined with Covid – has been combative in his interactions with party leaders and rank-and-file Democrats. His few media appearances haven’t gone well. The bad news keeps coming.

We wanted to dive into why Schumer and Jeffries have handled this crisis the way they have. Here are five reasons the pair of New York Democrats are saying precious little about Biden.

Caution. Schumer and Jeffries in particular are cautious by nature. They build consensus behind the scenes first and then act. This isn’t Harry Reid making decisions unilaterally and then getting his senators to fall in line. And at this point in his career, Jeffries doesn’t have Pelosi’s power to dictate outcomes. Maybe no Hill leader ever will again.

The situation is unprecedented too, which makes their caution understandable. There’s no playbook to reach for in dealing with this dilemma.

No one can predict what would happen if Biden steps aside. One of the most difficult calculations for either Democratic leader is what happens if Biden leaves the ticket. Is Vice President Kamala Harris a better option for Democrats? Say Harris is tapped as Biden’s replacement, the most likely outcome if the president does withdraw from the race. That could trigger a huge internal Democratic struggle over the VP pick. And one other point – there’s no clear evidence a Harris-led ticket would do much better in November than a Biden-led one.

Jeffries’ quandary. Jeffries is the most powerful Black Democrat in Congress, but he’s not the most prominent. That title goes to Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Clyburn hasn’t backed off his Biden support yet either. And the Congressional Black Caucus is still figuring out how to position itself as the crisis unfolds. We’ve talked to CBC sources who say their leadership will huddle over the next few days to determine a public posture should Biden continue to falter. For what it’s worth, there’s a sense in the CBC that Biden’s time is up.

Schumer’s caucus. As we noted above, Senate Democrats have largely stuck by Biden so far, at least in public. Schumer speaks to numerous senators daily. He knows exactly what his senators are thinking at all times. He’s not ever going to get too far out in front of them.

“In the Senate caucus, you have people like me… to fierce [Biden] defenders like Sen. Coons and Sen. Fetterman,” Welch told us. “But we all have total confidence in the ability of Sen. Schumer to convey the various concerns that are being expressed.”

Loyalty to Biden. Jeffries and Schumer personally like Biden. It’s also not easy to tell a sitting president that his remarkable political career is over after 50-plus years.

In Schumer’s case, he served with Biden in the Senate for 10 years. They’ve known each for far longer. They’ve done some big things together. So there’s been a desire to be respectful of Biden and let him make a decision on his own timeline. But the clock is ticking.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

The Canvass at the convention: The final night of the Republican National Convention wrapped up with Trump closing things up with his big speech.

As we’ve done all week, we surveyed senior Hill staffers and K Street leaders who are following the convention events for their reactions to the speeches, speakers and key issues in Milwaukee shaping the rest of the election.

We’ll have the full results of the survey in our midday newsletter, including respondents’ thoughts on the effectiveness of Trump’s speech and which Democrat they think could take him on should Biden step aside.

In the meantime, you can find the results of our earlier RNC Canvass polls here.

Overconfident or rightly optimistic? House Rs grapple with their predictions

MILWAUKEE — If you take one thing away from this week’s Republican National Convention, it should be that the GOP is confident about victory in November. Very confident.

The party sees a lagging President Joe Biden, a very favorable Senate map and an overall political environment that could sink House Democrats.

But beneath all the bluster, some House Republicans are concerned that the bold predictions may be a bit premature.

“I’m a little nervous about the House,” Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) told us.

McClain, the secretary of the House Republican Conference, laid out a scenario we heard repeatedly from GOP lawmakers this week in Milwaukee.

Democrats “are losing faith in Biden” and “the odds of the Senate flipping to Republicans are a lot higher,” McClain said.

“Because we have so many swing seats that are in play, more of the money and more of the ground game will go on the Democrat side to try to flip the House,” McClain said. “It means that’s going to be a tougher job for us to retain those seats.”

“We have to stay focused on not starting to measure the drapes and the curtains,” Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) added.

Currently, Republicans enjoy a slender House majority and will defend over a dozen incumbents who represent seats Biden won in 2020.

But earlier this week, NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told us he was targeting Democrats in seats Biden won by as much as 11 points four years ago. It was a notable vote of confidence from the Republican campaign chief that GOP candidates can perform in deep-blue territory.

Remember: We’ve heard pronouncements like this before. Most recently, Republican leaders thought they could gain up to 60 seats in the 2022 midterms. That didn’t materialize. In 2020, Democrats were also hopeful they’d grow their majority on the back of an anti-Trump electorate. That didn’t happen either.

Hudson told us that while he worries about a Democratic money advantage, “everything else is breaking our way.”

“Historically, Democrats outraise us,” Hudson said. “We don’t have to match, but we got to stay close. And so far we have, but we just got to keep the foot on the gas.”

The NRCC chair also said the group is currently polling in battleground seats to get a better sense of how much the situation has changed since Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate.

Democrats maintain that their candidates are battle-tested in local races and have track records of outrunning national figures.

“Everyone remembers when the last NRCC chief foolishly predicted a ‘red wave’ in 2022; it did not age well,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “Across the battlefield, Democratic candidates are winning the fundraising race, outpolling Republicans, and prioritizing the kitchen table issues that matter to voters.”

But some initial polling has suggested the party faces strong headwinds in November. For example, an Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll of a bellwether open Michigan House seat found the GOP candidate outrunning the Democrat by seven points.

— Max Cohen

THE SENATE

Could Vance help Senate GOP candidates?

MILWAUKEE — Sen. JD Vance’s selection as Donald Trump’s running mate has Republicans considering whether the freshman Ohio senator can help them close the gap between Senate GOP candidates and the top of the ticket.

Despite Trump’s narrow leads over President Joe Biden in battleground states, the Republican Senate candidates in those states are often running behind the Democratic incumbent. This is especially glaring in Rust Belt states, according to public polls.

Republican senators and candidates hosted Vance here in Milwaukee on Thursday for the first time since he was announced as Trump’s vice presidential nominee.

Many of them emerged from the gathering with a sense of confidence that Vance — a Trump loyalist whose populist views conflict with the party’s historical positions — could be an asset in those Senate races.

“I would think that anyone running for the Senate as a Republican that was here today would love for Sen. Vance to come to their state to campaign with them,” Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso, who hosted the meeting, told us afterward.

We spotted nearly all of the GOP challengers from battleground states walking into the meeting. The theory is that many of them, especially those in the Midwest, could benefit from Vance because of the Ohio Republican’s personal story, as documented in his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Vance’s first stop for a Senate candidate will be next week in Fort Wayne, Ind., according to Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), that state’s likely next senator.

“We’re gonna see a lot of JD Vance on the campaign trail,” said Banks, a close Vance ally and friend.

Yet deep-red Indiana was never a worry for Republicans. The real question is whether Vance and Trump can help candidates like Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, who a recent poll showed trailing Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) by double digits even as Trump is slightly ahead of Biden.

To be sure, Vance is still far from a household name, and being a face of the MAGA movement might not be helpful in some of the battleground states. Democratic incumbents also have found some success in differentiating themselves from the national party and carving out their own brands.

But Senate Republicans, dreaming of big gains in November, are eager to find ways to get their candidates’ numbers closer to Trump’s.

— Andrew Desiderio

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Punchbowl News HQ at the RNC

Our Punchbowl News HQ activation was a hit at the RNC in Milwaukee Wednesday where we had people gathering for coffee, snacks, live conversations and even an ice cream social in partnership with Snapchat.

The main-stage conversations included an interview on energy policy with Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), and a fireside chat with Bart Cahir, senior vice president Upstream Unconventional at ExxonMobil. Cahir disapproved of the Biden administration’s decision to halt new approvals of liquefied natural gas exports, calling it “a huge mistake” that’s creating uncertainty across the board.

Cahir also said it’s possible to produce affordable and reliable energy responsibly.

“The first thing we always talk about is responsible operations,” Cahir said, adding that his company has been able to double its production while significantly reducing its methane intensity.

In addition, we hosted a roundtable of energy executives presented by America’s Energy. Leaders of Edison Electric Institute, the American Clean Power Association, the American Gas Association and the Nuclear Energy Institute all spoke about the future of energy in the United States and the policies they hope will drive the industry.

We’ve been conducting nightly rapid polling for our survey The Canvass, bringing you immediate responses to RNC events and speeches from senior Hill staffers and K Street leaders. We held a live conversation with our polling partners at LSG on the Punchbowl News HQ stage to break down some of the results of The Canvass polling.

Convention attendees who stopped by the Punchbowl News HQ could charge their phones at charging stations provided by Duke Energy. We also had a coffee bar by General Motors, wifi presented by Holland & Knight, an ice cream social in partnership with Snapchat and drinks provided by Sazerac. We concluded the day with a toast and reception presented by Salesforce.

You can view a gallery of the photos from the Punchbowl HQ events here. And check out a day in the life of covering the RNC with reporter Max Cohen here.

Don’t miss: We’ll be headed to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention in August — please let us know here if you are interested in attending the Punchbowl News HQ on Aug. 21.

– Team Punchbowl News

SOCCER WATCH

LaHood says Copa America final chaos can’t happen in 2026

MILWAUKEE – All eyes were on Miami on Sunday night for the Copa America final between Argentina and Colombia. But instead of headlines about the action on the field, the ugly scenes outside the stadium dominated coverage.

Thousands of fans without tickets overwhelmed security to enter Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, leaving ticketed supporters blocked from attending a game they paid thousands of dollars to attend.

We caught up with Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), co-chair of the Congressional Soccer Caucus, at the RNC this week to hear his thoughts on what the fiasco means for the 2026 World Cup in the United States.

“It needs to be a wake up call,” LaHood said. “The World Cup will be here in 2026. It’ll be the largest sporting event in the history of the world. We have to make sure that what happened in Miami on Sunday night never happens again.”

LaHood was quick to point out that the Copa America was organized by CONMEBOL, the South American soccer governing body, and not FIFA, the global organization that runs the World Cup.

But LaHood nonetheless acknowledged that the pre-match mayhem damaged the reputation of U.S. sporting events.

“It’s a bit of an embarrassment for the United States or for the stadium in Miami to have that kind of thing happen,” LaHood said. “That is not a reflection, I think, on the way that we run large sporting events in this country.”

The Soccer Caucus is working with the White House to ensure logistics and security planning is a top priority ahead of 2026.

We’ll be covering much more of how the government is preparing for the World Cup in the coming months.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS