First, some breaking fundraising news: The DCCC raised an eye-popping $22.3 million in August, leaving the House Democratic campaign arm with more than $87 million on hand in the final stretch of the election.
The DCCC now has raised more than $250 million for the cycle, including $129 million so far in 2024.
For comparison: In August 2022, the DCCC raised $15.5 million. In August 2020, the DCCC raised $22.6 million. The DCCC is shellacking the NRCC in fundraising.
On to Republicans. There are 46 days until the 2024 election. All the focus, of course, is on the battle for the White House. That means it’s time for us to begin discussing the future of the House Republican leadership.
Unlike Democrats, who in recent years, have run their leadership elections pretty efficiently, Republican leadership races are a bit like the Hunger Games.
For example, last year, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise effectively blamed his fellow Louisiania Republican, Rep. Garret Graves, for helping undercut his bid for speaker by sowing doubts over his colleague’s health following a cancer diagnosis. And who can forget that, following Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as speaker, House Republicans cycled through everyone in leadership until settling on Mike Johnson to lead the chamber.
From the 30,000-foot level, the party that wins the White House is likely to control the House. At least that’s the sense on Capitol Hill. Republicans are virtually assured to control the Senate. The only question there is how big the margin is.
Republicans keep the House. If Republicans control the House after Nov. 5, Johnson will be speaker again next year.
It won’t be easy. If the GOP margin narrows from the current four-seat edge, Johnson would have a tough hill to climb and would almost certainly open himself up to a challenger.
Whether former President Donald Trump wins the White House is the other key factor at play. If so, Trump is going to want the Republican leadership races in the House and Senate settled quickly. Johnson has done a lot of work to maintain close ties with Trump and sources in both camps say they have a good rapport. The two met Thursday evening.
Johnson has said he’d run for speaker again but is focused on winning and growing the GOP majority right now. The Louisiana Republican hasn’t publicly discussed what he’d do if the House flips.
As for the rest of the GOP leadership team, the general consensus is that the lineup will stay the same if Republicans hold the House. But there may be at least one open opportunity if House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik winds up in the Trump administration, which seems likely.
One important note — Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) won’t go anywhere if Republicans are in charge. Jordan says his only interest is “running to be the next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.”
Republicans lose the House. If Republicans lose the House, there will almost certainly be a big leadership shakeup. The potential showdown between Scalise and Jordan — bitter rivals during last year’s speaker showdown — will be a brawl.
Most senior GOP sources don’t believe Johnson will stay on as minority leader if Republicans lose their majority. Scalise is widely expected to run for minority leader. That contest is a secret ballot vote and only requires a simple majority of the Republican conference.
Scalise has built a massive political operation during his decade in leadership. His political team has raised $200 million since its inception in 2014. Between now and Election Day, Scalise already has 48 campaign events planned in more than 20 states.
The 58-year-old Scalise is in good health following recent cancer treatment. Scalise also still deals with some fallout from the near-fatal 2017 shooting.
The big question mark is what would Jordan do. The Ohio Republican’s colleagues believe Jordan has been itching to make a move and would make a play for the top spot. Jordan ran twice before — once for speaker and once for minority leader — and lost both times. But those close to him say he’s learned from those experiences.
Jordan has maintained a breakneck pace on the road over the last few months. He’s traveled not only to staunchly conservative districts but also swing seats in New York and other states. Jordan has also campaigned for Republicans who opposed him in his race for speaker.
While Jordan maintains publicly that he’s simply trying to boost GOP candidates and keep the majority, this kind of travel has caught the attention of leadership watchers inside the Capitol and downtown.
Meanwhile, Scalise met with the Ohio GOP delegation on Thursday and committed $100,000 to an effort to defeat an Ohio ballot initiative that would change the state’s redistricting process. Defeating the ballot initiative is a key priority for the Ohio GOP delegation, and Scalise lending his support could help him earn chits with Buckeye State Republicans. But most of them would likely feel obligated to back Jordan in a Jordan-Scalise matchup.
Republicans win the House, but Trump loses. This would be a less than ideal scenario for Johnson, although it seems improbable — but not impossible — that Republicans will hang on to their majority even if Trump falls short.
Still, it’s being quietly talked about in the Capitol. The fear here is that the certification of the 2024 election results could become a litmus test in the speaker’s race, with Trump already laying the groundwork to contest the outcome if it doesn’t go his way. The vice president, not the speaker, oversees the certification progress under a 2022 law passed by Congress. Yet even the VP’s role is “solely ministerial” and objections are harder to make.
