Where we are. It’s Monday morning. Federal agencies run out of money Friday night at midnight. And there’s still no bipartisan deal on a government funding bill. Which isn’t great news.
Now, there’s not going to be a government shutdown. But there are a lot of different dynamics we need to run down this morning as Congress heads into its last week in session of 2024.
And remember — everything has been slower and dumber than it should be throughout the 118th Congress, so why should this week be any different?
The main issue over the last few days has been a late round of haggling over economic assistance to farmers as part of a one-year extension to the farm bill. This extension is supposed to ride on the CR.
Initially, Hill leaders on both sides were envisioning a simple trade: They’d divert funding approved under the Inflation Reduction Act — money meant for the National Resources Conservation Service — in the budget baseline in exchange for direct economic aid to farmers.
But Speaker Mike Johnson opposed that trade, likely given the hyperpolitical nature of the IRA and President-elect Donald Trump’s desire to gut the legislation during the next Congress.
So Democrats smelled an opportunity. If Johnson so badly wanted direct economic assistance to farmers, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would ask for a pound of flesh in return.
Democrats floated several asks:
– The federal government would pay 100% of the cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. This could run to $2 billion or more.
– A trade deal that would allow duty-free access for Haitian apparel and textile imports.
– Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which permits duty-free imports for hundreds of products from sub-Saharan African countries.
– Funding to build museums on the National Mall to honor women and Hispanics.
– The Second Chance Act, which aims to help the reentry of convicted criminals back into communities.
Another question here is what happens to the massive health deal that congressional leaders were envisioning as part of the CR package. On Friday, we reported that congressional negotiators had cobbled together an agreement that would include a major overhaul for pharmacy benefit managers, reauthorization of the SUPPORT Act, Medicare telehealth flexibility extensions and an extension of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act. This would be included in the CR as well.
It’s important to keep in mind the incentives here. Johnson isn’t going to shut the federal government down. Plus Trump and Senate Republicans don’t want any distractions either. But the Louisiana Republican doesn’t want to give away too much here, not with a floor vote for speaker looming on Jan. 3. But he wants the ag money. Jeffries understands this, which is why he can press hard for concessions from Johnson — especially with the speaker insisting on pushing for the agriculture payment provision.
So there will be a deal. Democrats know Johnson must rely on them to help pass it, maybe even provide a majority of votes. House GOP leaders are probably going to have to take the CR up under suspension, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass.
Timing issues. We have to imagine that Johnson is going to want to stick to the 72-hour rule for floor action on this package. That means if congressional leaders release the bill today, the House may not vote until Thursday.
The Senate will have a cloture vote on the FY2025 defense authorization bill today at 5:30 p.m. That sets up a final vote on Wednesday minus any time agreement.
Now, if the Senate gets the CR on Thursday, there’s a possibility it could clear the measure that day. Never, ever underestimate “Senate magic,” especially with a long recess, Christmas and the New Year lurking on the other side of this vote. But Friday feels more likely.
Internal political impact. Johnson has spent his entire speakership vowing to avoid year-end, catch-all, “Christmas tree” legislation. He’s resisted pleas from Democrats and Republicans alike to try to assemble an omnibus that would keep the federal government funded until next Sept. 30. Or even two minibuses. Or whatever entity or vehicles were necessary.
But it’s now Dec. 16, with Johnson and other Hill leaders readying a CR that will fund the federal government until mid-March alongside a number of provisions that have little to do with broader federal operations.
This legislation is going to attract a lot of opposition from House Republicans. Be ready for a food fight.
Also: Former GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong is now the governor of North Dakota. Armstrong was sworn in on Friday. His resignation from Congress means the House ratio is currently 219 Republicans to 211 Democrats with five vacancies.
