The economy took center stage in the 2024 election, helping Republicans win landslide victories. Canvass respondents foretold that it would be the issue voters watched all year long.
The top two issues that respondents predicted would matter in the election were the economy and inflation, according to both our September survey of senior Hill staffers and our July poll of K Street leaders.
In the May edition of our survey of senior folks downtown, respondents cited the top three economic issues for voters as grocery and food prices, housing and rental costs, and gas prices — in that order.
Canvass respondents from Capitol Hill and the lobbying world saw Democrats entering the election with momentum. Still, these economic woes were ultimately salient concerns when Americans went to the polls. And that boosted Republicans in ousting the Democrats from the White House and the Senate.
What it means: After an economy-focused election, lawmakers are set to zero in on a whole lot more in that arena.
In our November survey, 76% of senior Hill aides said taxes would be among the 119th Congress’ top three priorities. Similarly, in our October K Street survey, 81% of respondents named taxes a top-three priority.
That makes sense with most of the Trump tax cuts expiring at the end of 2025. Plus, President-elect Donald Trump floated lots of new tax cuts on the campaign trail. Republicans are already debating how to pass Trump’s priorities and whether to move quickly on a tax bill or prioritize border security first.
It could, however, be a rocky road. Some House Republicans are worried that splitting off border funding and waiting to tackle tax cuts could run the risk of failing to get a tax bill to Trump’s desk after all.
Still, Hill aides have been feeling good about their odds. Nearly every top GOP aide who responded to our November survey said it’s likely that Congress will address the expiring 2017 tax cuts before they lapse at the end of 2025. Even 97% of Democrats agreed.
