Canvass respondents were spot-on with their predictions on major leadership transitions among Hill Republicans. That included their correct call on Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) succeeding Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as Senate GOP leader.
In February, most Capitol Hill respondents (59%) said 2024 would be McConnell’s final year as Senate Republican leader. On Feb. 28, he announced his decision to step aside after nearly two decades on the job.
The Senate: With the GOP sweeping control of both chambers and the White House, some Democrats were left shocked. But not our Canvass respondents, who anticipated the Republican Party’s takeover of the Senate.
Throughout the year, our surveys showed that Washington leaders on K Street and the Hill thought Republicans would control the upper chamber in 2025.
Canvass respondents also accurately predicted the outcomes of the most critical Senate races, including Democratic wins in Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan and Maryland, as well as the GOP gain in Montana.
The House: In February, most senior Hill staffers (74%) called Mike Johnson an ineffective speaker of the House — including 58% of Republicans. Johnson didn’t fare better when we asked K Street a month later. Despite the pessimism about Johnson’s efficacy, most on Capitol Hill believed he would get to keep his office for the remainder of the 118th Congress.
Not only did Johnson keep his gavel after a motion-to-vacate vote, the Louisiana Republican is on track to be reelected as speaker next month.
Shutdown: The deadline to keep the government funded is Friday. This should be a familiar feeling to Canvass respondents. Early in the year, both K Street and Capitol Hill respondents recognized the low likelihood of a government shutdown, which ultimately aligned with Congress’ ability to secure funding agreements.
Congress, it appears, is about to pass a continuing resolution that President Joe Biden will sign.
