Republicans are bracing for several flashpoints today that will tell us a lot about the economic and political ramifications of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
First up this morning is the gross domestic product report for the first quarter of 2025. Then we’ll see whether Senate Republican leaders can hold the line on a key tariff vote expected this evening.
Data watch: The Trump administration will receive its GDP report card for Q1 2025 at 8:30 a.m. from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The period won’t fully capture the onset of Trump’s tariffs in early April. But expect plenty of headlines, especially if the data shows the U.S. economy is contracting.
The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter of the Biden administration. Estimates for today’s GDP report range from 0.8% growth to a contraction of 0.4%.
Then at 10 a.m., the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for March will be released. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring inflation.
The GDP snapshot, in particular, comes at a critical moment for Trump. His poll numbers on the economy have nosedived. Wall Street hasn’t had this rough of a run during a new president’s first 100 days since Richard Nixon in 1973. Consumer sentiment has slumped. Trump’s trade war could lead to mass layoffs in the trucking and retail industries.
However, the overall U.S. economic picture is muddy, and reliable numbers have been hard to come by. It’ll still take some time to see how major indicators such as consumer spending, the unemployment rate and inflation levels have changed since Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2.
Tariff tiff: Meanwhile, Senate Republican leaders are working aggressively behind the scenes to kill a disapproval resolution intended to block Trump’s across-the-board reciprocal tariffs.
Despite initial skepticism about Trump’s tariff strategy, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has backed up Trump’s efforts and worked to quash opposition, even as he acknowledges the potential political downsides.
“I think [Trump’s] numbers on the economy, as you point out, may be related in some respects to the policy discussions being held about tariffs,” Thune said Tuesday. “When you’re going through all this, you’ve got to take the long view. And I think his policy decisions are the right ones.”
But a terrible GDP report could dramatically change that dynamic. Senators are anxious to see trade deals come together before a trade war saps the U.S. economy.
“From a time standpoint, that’s got to get settled down this quarter, or I think it creates some serious headwinds, economically and politically,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sought to assuage GOP fears of a prolonged trade war Tuesday, telling Senate Republicans that he expects multiple trade deals to be announced in the coming weeks and months.
Pain points: Most Republicans, though, aren’t willing to give the president and his trade negotiators too long a leash.
“Roll ‘em out as they come along,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of potential trade deals. “Don’t try to save ‘em all up for the Fourth of July… Because people are very anxious about it. They want to see the results of the strategy.”
A few weeks ago, four Senate Republicans joined all 47 Democrats in voting to overturn Trump’s initial tariffs on Canada. Tonight, senators will vote on another privileged resolution — this time to block Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
This has been a consistent pressure point for Thune and Majority Whip John Barrasso, who have been working to prevent new cracks in their conference’s support for Trump’s trade agenda.
Even though these votes are largely symbolic given recent House rules changes, losing is a bad look for Trump. It’s also a constant reminder of the party’s disunity over tariffs. And there’s a sense within the GOP leadership that these kinds of headlines will only serve to undermine Trump as he tries to secure various trade deals.
Barrasso led a presentation during the closed-door GOP lunch on Tuesday that was carefully tailored to the four GOP detractors — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Rand Paul (Ky.). Republicans need to flip one of them to defeat the resolution.
Paul projected confidence that all four would hold firm. Murkowski and Collins have been mum, as has McConnell. In fact, McConnell spent the recent recess speaking out against the tariffs and their negative impact on Kentucky.
These four Republicans are mostly unmoved by Trump’s pressure tactics to get them to fall in line. But at his Michigan rally Tuesday night, Trump reminded Republicans of the consequences for those who challenge him.
“Remember who those grandstanders are and vote them the hell out of office,” Trump said of his GOP detractors.
