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October 12, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
House Republicans — Welcome to Kevin McCarthy Part Deux. But worse. Maybe way worse.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s quest for the speakership — his seemingly impossible bid to turn 107 votes in his favor — has shades of the same Sisyphean task that McCarthy faced over the last nine months. Only the stakes this time are higher, the time frame is shorter, the opposition is larger and the House Republican Conference is angrier.
Let’s start here: Scalise apparently is trying to grind his way to 217. After winning the GOP speaker nomination on Wednesday — barely — Scalise dispatched a wave of surrogates to call and lobby members who had been backing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Scalise took meetings last night with holdouts and no votes, trying to understand their opposition and how he could flip them.
Scalise’s gamble appears to be this — once he became the party’s nominee for speaker, Republicans would fall in line behind him. But that’s simply not happening.
Scalise’s fellow Republican leaders believe he should be afforded the time to try to win over colleagues. Yet the window for Scalise is very narrow, perhaps just a few days, to show that he can get to 217.
There are no GOP conference meetings scheduled, and no word on whether Scalise wants to risk a roll-call vote on the floor. The House is coming into session at noon, but nothing is clear after that.
Scalise has had some success. For instance, Scalise won over Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), a Jordan backer. Her priorities — impeaching President Joe Biden, subpoenaing Hunter Biden and defunding special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing federal criminal cases against former President Donald Trump.
Asked whether Scalise promised a vote on these huge issues — something swing-district Republicans would really want to know — Luna responded: “What I will say is that Steve Scalise … is definitely someone the Biden administration should not be playing games with.”
The high stakes. The House has been paralyzed for two weeks as Israel — the United States’ top ally in the Middle East — is in the middle of an existential war and needs congressional support.
Government funding runs out in 36 days and House Republicans are trapped in a bitter fight over who’s to blame for their current debacle.
The numbers. Scalise wiggled his way into the House Republican nomination for speaker, topping Jordan 113-99. In reality, the vote was 110-100. Scalise had the support of the three delegates from U.S. territories who can’t vote for speaker on the House floor. And Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), a Jordan supporter, didn’t vote because he was in Israel.
So in order to win the speakership, Scalise has to increase his vote total by 107.
OK, the real hard-core “Never Scalise” vote is probably 20 to 30 members, although it’s hard to estimate. Scalise can only afford to lose four votes on the floor.
Just consider this: Before McCarthy won a 15-round marathon floor vote in January, he garnered 188 votes in the conference against Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) — a decidedly weaker opponent than Jordan.
The nos. A huge block of members seems unwilling to consider a Scalise speakership. That opposition runs from moderates all the way to hardcore conservatives.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) went on Jake Tapper’s CNN show Wednesday to remind the public that Scalise once attended a white supremacist meeting when running for the legislature in Louisiana. Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) keeps saying he’ll only vote for Jordan on the floor.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) has all but closed off the possibility of voting for Scalise, as have Reps. Carlos Gimènez (R-Fla.) and Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.). Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) was for Jordan, then Scalise, and now says he wants Jordan. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said she’d rather Scalise focus on treating his multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer, than serve as speaker.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said Scalise’s handling of his motion to change the conference rules was a “setback” for consideration of the Louisiana Republican as speaker. Indicted Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) posted late last night that he’s never heard from Scalise since being in Congress and won’t back him. Reps. Bob Good (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) both said they would vote for Jordan on the floor.
Rep. Tom Massie (R-Ky.) said he assumed there were at least 20 conservatives lined up against Scalise.
Team Scalise — allies and aides of the Louisiana Republican — noted McCarthy had two months to get the votes for his speaker race. That’s true, of course. But Scalise doesn’t have that kind of time.
So what’s next? Everywhere you turn in the House Republican Conference, there’s serious concern — almost certainty — that Scalise can’t win a floor vote.
The question for Scalise is whether he’ll take his candidacy to the floor for a vote that he can’t win? Stay tuned.
The conversation has already picked up about fall-back options if Scalise can’t get to 217. The usual suspects are being bandied about — Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) or Majority Whip Tom Emmer.
How about McCarthy? He’s not interested in returning to the speakership, sources close to him say. On Wednesday night, McCarthy hosted some of his close allies in the speaker’s Capitol office suite for an informal get-together.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
See you in Arkansas! Join us for a conversation with Arkansas Republican Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton on Friday, Oct. 27 at 1 p.m. CT/2 p.m. ET in Little Rock, Ark. We’ll discuss the challenges facing small business owners in rural America. RSVP here!
THE MINORITY MEMO
What House Democrats are thinking
House Democrats have a pretty simple strategy for this week: watch and wait.
Yes, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has repeatedly expressed his desire for a “bipartisan governing coalition” in the House — through press releases, statements to reporters and even an op-ed.
But beyond those public calls for moderate Republicans to come their way, House Democratic leadership isn’t doing anything privately to make that happen.
Of course, top House Republicans would never go for the idea Jeffries is suggesting, and he knows that. But Jeffries really has one job right now — look like the reasonable adult in the room while Republicans continue to tear each other apart.
Whenever the House does convene to vote for a speaker, Democrats will again unite behind Jeffries. They renominated him privately in less than 10 minutes this week — even clapping for two minutes straight — with House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar jokingly “noting for Jake Sherman, if he’s listening,” according to members in the room.
But what if the House remains at a standstill for several days or into next week? We checked with senior Democratic lawmakers and aides on their strategy.
Here’s what we know: There haven’t been any high-level conversations among Democrats about a specific list of demands they would make in order to help a Republican somehow secure the speakership.
But the broad things senior Democrats are interested in seem pretty straightforward: raising the threshold for the motion to vacate; a real plan to fund the government beyond Nov. 17; and a promise to bring legislation to the floor providing aid to Israel and Ukraine.
“The blocking and tackling of government,” as one Democratic aide described it to us.
There are some dramatic proposals that rank-and-file Democrats have floated, such as empowering a more moderate coalition on the Rules Committee and allowing more Democratic-led bills to come up for a vote under suspension. Those are not happening.
Still, top Democrats told us Republicans have made clear their input is not “welcome nor needed,” so they’re staying quiet for now. We’ll see if that changes as the speaker saga drags on.
Relationship with Scalise: We also did a quick assessment of Democrats’ relationship with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Jeffries and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy developed a pretty cordial working relationship over the last nine months. Jeffries doesn’t have that with Scalise. Their relationship has been described to us as “polite but not extensive” according to Democratic sources.
When it comes to House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, Scalise’s current counterpart on the Democratic side, the two teams work well together on the day-to-day running of the House. And Scalise has a connection with Aguilar — the two square off during the annual congressional baseball game.
But the Louisiana Republican doesn’t have many close relationships with Democrats. His closest Democratic ally, former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), left Congress in 2021. Scalise has developed a friendship with fellow New Orleans Rep. Troy Carter (D), who replaced Richmond in Congress.
Yet maybe most importantly, Scalise is a “known quantity,” several Democrats told us. While they don’t agree with Scalise’s politics — to say the least — knowing what you’re getting goes really far in a House that has been dominated by chaos in recent months. Especially when the other option right now is a conservative firebrand like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), they said.
— Heather Caygle
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Congress squeezes Biden on Iran after Hamas terror attacks against Israel
Hamas terrorists’ horrific attacks against Israel are renewing bipartisan fury at Iran — and, by extension, becoming a rebuke of President Joe Biden’s posture toward that country.
Republicans and a sizable group of Democrats are urging Biden to freeze $6 billion of Iranian assets that were recently unlocked as part of a prisoner-swap agreement with the United States. In the Senate, there could soon be a filibuster-proof majority backing this approach, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Citing Iran’s decades-long support of Hamas, lawmakers say the funding should be locked down again. And senators from both parties are already looking into efforts to crack down on Hamas’ financing and potentially levy new sanctions on Iran.
At the same time, the Biden administration is insisting to lawmakers behind closed doors that it doesn’t yet have intelligence suggesting that Iran was aware of or otherwise involved in Hamas’ deadly wave of terrorist attacks. The White House also has maintained that the $6 billion can only be spent on verified humanitarian services, like food or medicine, such as happened in the Trump administration.
Still, the issue has put vulnerable in-cycle Senate Democrats in a bind, leading many of them to join Republicans in calling for those funds to be frozen once again. Politically, there’s little downside to staking out this position.
“As we learn more about Iran’s role in these horrific terrorist attacks against Israel, one thing is clear: we should immediately freeze the $6 billion in assets and use available tools to discourage Iran’s illicit conduct,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who’s running for Senate.
The politics surrounding Iran and Israel have been fraught territory over the years — especially since 2015, when the Obama-Biden administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal. That agreement, of course, saw universal GOP opposition, as well as from some top Democrats including now Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Former President Donald Trump abandoned the accord in 2018.
Many of those same voices were critical of the Biden administration’s efforts in 2021 and 2022 to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
The debate over the $6 billion in Iranian assets has swirled Capitol Hill all week, much to the chagrin of the White House and its allies. They say it’s distracting from the need to unite behind Israel and provide the assistance it needs to crush Hamas.
“Of course [Iran’s] hands are not clean here,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said on CNN. “But this is a fog of war situation… The focus now needs to be on supporting the Israelis.”
At Biden’s direction, the Pentagon has exercised some authorities that don’t require explicit congressional backing, including sending a carrier strike group to the region, shipping weapons and deploying military assets to advise the Israelis on hostage rescue missions.
But John Kirby, the National Security Council’s strategic communications coordinator, said the administration will soon “run out of runway” without additional funding and authorities from Congress. The White House is expected to make a formal request for aid over the next few weeks, likely grouped in with other national-security priorities including Ukraine.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a top progressive, said after a classified briefing Wednesday that there was a “rush to judgment” among Republicans in the room about Iran’s possible involvement in the planning of Hamas’ atrocities.
“Is it true that Iran has provided support to Hamas over the years? Yes,” Jayapal said. “But I think we have to be very careful about conflating that with Iran being involved in the planning. And I also think we have to be very careful about not inflaming further tensions. We don’t want to be fighting wars in multiple planes in the region.”
Biden himself nodded to these concerns on Wednesday, saying he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “with all the anger and frustration, it is important that Israel operates in Gaza according to the rules of war.”
— Andrew Desiderio
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THE MONEY GAME
Republican fundraising news: California GOP Rep. Michelle Steel raised over $1 million in Q3 and ended the quarter with over $2.4 million on hand. This is another monster haul from Steel, one of the 18 House Republicans who represent districts that Joe Biden won in 2020. Steel easily won reelection in 2022 by eight points.
Democratic fundraising news: The political arm of the New Democrat Coalition raised $2.9 million in the first three quarters of 2023. Remember: The NewDem Action Fund has a national finance team for the first time. It’s helmed by Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) and Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.).
— Max Cohen
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