Sherrod Brown runs against everyone

IN THIS EDITION

Sherrod Brown’s race against the machine

Johnson raises recording-breaking $27M in Q3

Details of kids online safety bill are ‘very problematic,’ Johnson says

After barnstorming through Pa., Kuster says she’s optimistic Dems can win

Schiff stumps for Dem candidates

THE TOP

Sherrod Brown’s race against the machine

Happy Monday morning.

WARREN, Ohio — How do you win reelection as a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump will carry handily?

By running against everyone and everything.

That’s Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) theory of the case, at least, as he tries to beat back the political winds in Ohio to win a fourth term while also salvaging what’s left of Democrats’ hopes to retain their Senate majority.

“Politicians of both parties unfortunately have sold our state out over and over,” Brown said to a crowd assembled at a United Auto Workers union hall here, just miles from the shuttered Lordstown, Ohio, GM plant. “You know all too well what happens when politicians and corporations sell us out. I will never ever give up on our workers.”

Brown used the “both parties” line at least a half-dozen times during a two-stop swing through Trump-friendly counties in eastern Ohio on Friday. Brown is seeking to insulate himself from GOP attacks on a number of issues that dominate the most expensive Senate race in the country.

Brown’s strategy of castigating both parties for national problems that have disproportionately impacted Ohio — from the decimation of the state’s manufacturing base to the influx of fentanyl from the southern border — is giving Democrats hope that he can hang on.

It’s an attempt to appeal to ticket-splitters who back Trump but are willing to vote for Brown. It’s also why Brown treads very carefully when asked about the presidential race. You won’t hear him mention Vice President Kamala Harris much, either.

Democrats need a Brown victory in order to have any chance of holding onto their majority. Even if he wins, control of the chamber is still a reach. The question is whether Brown can defy the ticket-splitting odds in ways that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester might not be able to in even-redder Montana.

On the ground: On the stump and the airwaves, Brown seems to be following Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s advice — distinguishing himself from the national party while emphasizing the implementation of the Senate’s recent bipartisan achievements. That’s in addition to his “both-parties-stink” approach.

Brown’s UAW speech focused on China’s exploitation of U.S. trade policies and its impact on manufacturing jobs. He name-checked the last four presidents, including Joe Biden, for failing to do enough to protect those jobs through trade enforcement. Brown later told us he thinks Trump’s tariff proposal is too heavy-handed.

In Steubenville, Brown talked up the FEND Off Fentanyl Act, which was signed into law earlier this year. Brown led the effort and noted it was overwhelmingly bipartisan. The only time Brown mentioned Trump was when he pointed out that the former president signed a fentanyl bill of his into law.

Focusing on fentanyl also allows Brown to blunt some of the GOP attacks over the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.

“We’ve got to close the border better than we have. Presidents of both parties have failed at the border,” Brown told us. “I think [voters] are encouraged by our efforts on fentanyl. The thing many people feel the most is the fentanyl in their communities.”

Brown is betting that these anti-establishment messages resonate with voters who’ve seen first-hand how unfavorable trade policies and fentanyl have ravaged the state.

But with ticket-splitting becoming less common and the Buckeye State getting tougher for Democrats statewide, Republicans are pouring unprecedented sums of money into Ohio to knock off Brown and flip the Senate red.

The GOP playbook: Brown has been polling ahead of his GOP opponent Bernie Moreno, though the race is tightening.

Moreno argues that Brown’s election-year rhetoric belies his record as a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate, which the Republican challenger says contributed to the border crisis and inflation.

Those issues are at the forefront of every Senate GOP campaign this cycle, showing how Republicans are trying to nationalize these races by blaming Democratic incumbents for illegal immigration and rising prices.

Moreno is also taking aim at Brown’s efforts to cast blame elsewhere for Ohio’s problems over the past few decades, noting Brown has been in office the entire time.

Here’s what Moreno told reporters after casting his ballot on the first day of early voting last week:

While Brown strategically avoids the presidential race in part to maximize his share of ticket-splitters, it’s no secret where he stands on Trump.

Republicans, though, are having a difficult time discouraging ticket-splitting. In every Senate battleground, Trump is polling well ahead of GOP candidates. In close races, even the smallest of gaps can make a big difference.

— Andrew Desiderio

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THE MONEY GAME

Johnson raises record-breaking $27M in Q3

First in Punchbowl News: Speaker Mike Johnson raked in $27.5 million during the third quarter of this year — what his team says is a new record for a Republican speaker during that period of time in a presidential year.

Johnson’s double-digit haul includes more than $19.4 million for his fundraising committees and $8.1 million for individual members and candidates. The speaker has now transferred more than $26 million to the NRCC since securing the gavel nearly one year ago.

Last week, the Congressional Leadership Fund — the House GOP leadership-aligned super PAC — reported raising $81 million during July, August and September, bringing the combined efforts of Johnson and CLF to more than $100 million in the third quarter.

This is much-needed good news for Republicans on the fundraising front in the final stretch before the election. House Republicans have struggled to close the cash gap with Democrats. Johnson, who has started to find his footing on the campaign trail, has traveled to more than 210 cities in 40 states and will barnstorm through 24 states in October.

— Melanie Zanona

TECH REPORT

Details of kids online safety bill are ‘very problematic,’ Johnson says

Speaker Mike Johnson told us he likes the idea behind the Senate-passed Kids Online Safety Act but the text has big issues.

Johnson’s concerns likely spell doom this year for the bill, which would require large social media companies to implement design features that protect young users from a range of potential harms.

Here’s how the speaker described KOSA to us during his recent swing through Pennsylvania: “I love the principle, but the details of that are very problematic.”

Johnson’s qualms will obviously come as a blow to pro-KOSA advocates. Some of them had even followed the speaker to Louisiana this past weekend in the hopes of getting him on board.

It doesn’t sound like he’s open to persuasion, at least not on the version that passed the Senate in July.

KOSA as written would have “unintended consequences,” Johnson said.

House dynamics: We’ve reported extensively on House GOP leadership’s worries about the bill. Top Republicans see the bill’s imposition of a legal “duty of care” on platforms as too broad and think the measure could lead to censorship of rightwing voices.

But it’s House Majority Leader Steve Scalise who was responsible for urging changes in meetings with KOSA sponsors last month. Advocates for KOSA had seen Scalise as a hard no while viewing Johnson as potentially flexible.

The lawmakers behind the bill have told us they’re trying to find more changes to appease leadership. But some changes they’ve already made, which fell far short of what Johnson and Scalise would want, almost caused Democrats to bolt en masse.

Democrats’ view: House Democrats prefer the Senate version, which passed with 91 votes. Any further changes that move the bill toward one GOP that leadership supports could send Democrats over the edge into open opposition.

In addition to conservative concerns, some progressives and civil liberties advocates have also worried that the bill could result in the censorship of LGBTQ content.

— Ben Brody and Jake Sherman

ELECTION 2024

After barnstorming through Pa., Kuster says she’s optimistic Dems can win

The race for control of Washington next year will likely come down to Pennsylvania, where we reported from last week as top congressional leaders flock to the commonwealth. While things remain neck-and-neck in the state, New Democrat Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) told us her time in the Keystone State left her feeling optimistic.

“It has the feel of the first Obama campaign,” Kuster said of the Democratic environment in Pennsylvania. “It’s very grassroots. The level of enthusiasm for young people, for women, for people of color, is just off the charts.”

While Kuster is leaving Congress at the end of the year, the New Dem leader is still engaged on the campaign trail to boost Democrats. Last week, Kuster started off by rallying voters with Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Mary Gay Scanlon and Madeleine Dean in the “collar counties” surrounding Philadelphia.

Kuster also held fundraisers for Janelle Stelson, the Democrat running to knock off Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), and Ashley Ehasz, who’s challenging Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). And Kuster popped down to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., to chat with young staffers.

“The Harris-Walz campaign is super organized. They’ve got 50 offices across Pennsylvania, and they’ve got 400 staff,” Kuster said.

The battle for the House: Kuster consistently tells reporters her “north star” is making sure House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker in 2025. Citing Democratic fundraising advantages in key races, Kuster told us she feels “very good about taking the House.”

“All of our frontliners are outraising the challengers, and almost all of our challengers are outraising the Republican incumbents — by a lot,” Kuster said.

What’s next: In the coming weeks, Kuster is traveling to Ohio to campaign for Frontline Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. Kuster is also heading to the Michigan-Michigan State football game to organize young voters at a Harris-Walz campaign tailgate.

Kuster also discussed how she’s hoping to stop in Iowa to help out two Democratic challengers: Christina Bohannan against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Lanon Baccam against Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa). Another potential agenda item is a stop for Democrat Tony Vargas in his race versus Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

— Max Cohen

SURROGATE WATCH

Schiff stumps for Dem candidates

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), weeks away from likely being elected senator, is giving a boost to House and Senate Democratic candidates across California and the country in the final stretch before Election Day.

Schiff will be heading to several competitive House districts across southern California this month and help his party’s Senate candidates in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, according to a person familiar with his travel plans. Schiff’s own Senate race isn’t competitive.

Schiff will appear with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) in Arizona, who is running against GOP challenger Kari Lake for the open Senate seat, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), who is seeking a third term in Wisconsin. In Nevada, Schiff will stump for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and frontline Rep. Susie Lee (D.).

The high-profile Democrat will also campaign for Democratic House candidates Derek Tran, Dave Min, Rudy Salas and George Whitesides in California during the coming weeks. And he’ll stump for Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who is facing a tough race against GOP challenger Matt Gunderson.

California’s House races are among the most closely watched in the battle for the House. Democrats are hoping to oust a handful of vulnerable Republicans to help them take back the chamber.

— Mica Soellner

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