How Thune manages Trump

IN THIS EDITION

Inside Thune’s ‘Trump management’ amid shutdown

Takeaways from a big FEC filing day

Tech: Spectrum skirmish pulls in administration

The Vault: Warren sends letter blast on Trump layoffs

THE TOP

Inside Thune’s ‘Trump management’ amid shutdown

Happy Thursday morning.

It’s Day 16 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.

When Sen. John Thune was elected as Republican leader last November, there was plenty of skepticism among both rank-and-file GOP senators and MAGA world over the South Dakotan’s ability to deal with President Donald Trump.

The pair had a sometimes-tumultuous relationship coming out of Trump’s first term, especially the fallout from the contested 2020 election and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Trump even called for Thune to be primaried.

Thune worked hard to mend those ties, including a key trip to Mar-a-Lago in March 2024. Now, as Senate majority leader, Thune has delivered for Trump on multiple fronts — from quick Cabinet confirmations to passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to changing Senate rules to confirm Trump’s nominees more quickly amid Democrats’ slow-walking.

Overall, Thune has managed to keep Senate Republicans mostly together, even on issues where most of them disagree with Trump, most notably on tariffs.

“Because [Thune] has been winning votes, his opinion matters to the White House,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a close Thune confidant. “And that’s one of the reasons why so many members have stuck with John on a lot of really difficult votes, because they know that it matters in terms of our ability to negotiate with the White House.”

Now, in the midst of the most serious crisis of Thune and Trump’s tenure — a seemingly never-ending government shutdown — their relationship is being put to the ultimate test.

A tough job. Thune has stayed on-message since the shutdown began. The same can’t be said for Trump, who recently signaled he’d negotiate a health care deal with Democrats — without saying the government should re-open first. This fed into GOP fears that Trump would go around them on the health care fight.

Thune has also expressed some public discomfort over the severity of OMB’s aggressive moves intended to punish Democrats, from rescinding blue state energy and infrastructure funding to imposing large-scale layoffs of federal workers.

These actions have only hardened Democrats’ positions, something Thune undoubtedly recognizes. Trump delayed some of those moves, such as mass layoffs, in part because of Thune’s private warnings, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Thune has the standing now to push back on Trump’s instincts privately. And that doesn’t seem to be angering Trump, who keeps shouting out Thune during his public appearances, including as recently as Wednesday. The two speak on the phone or text nearly every day.

We talked to several GOP senators who said Thune has done more than enough — especially with the more controversial nominees — to earn Trump’s trust.

“We’ve never embarrassed the president on those things. That’s because of John’s leadership,” Rounds said. “I think that carries weight with the White House. He’s also been around a long time and he understands the nature of leadership… That pays dividends.”

Yet Thune has to constantly look over his shoulder. For one, Trump may get so exasperated with the impasse that he tries to cut a deal with Democrats that Republicans loathe. That fear is what drove Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson to convince Trump to cancel an initial sit-down with Democratic leaders. Even worse, Trump could call on Thune to gut the legislative filibuster.

Thune acknowledged at a recent press conference that there’s “always” pressure on the filibuster. But if Trump sees the filibuster as impeding his agenda — as he did during his first term — it’s not inconceivable that the president could re-up those efforts.

“I could see at some point that being a potential conversation. But that’s not good for anybody,” Thune told us in a recent interview. “We should avoid that at all costs. And I think we can if we can just get the government open.”

Trump recently called for the scrapping of another sacrosanct institutional prerogative — the Senate Judiciary Committee’s “blue slip” policy — but Thune shot that down quickly. At Wednesday’s lunch meeting, Senate GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sought to keep Republicans united in support of the filibuster, saying Democrats are trying to “bait” them into eliminating it.

This is news. There’s a bipartisan group of senators discussing several different potential off-ramps involving the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. The group, led in part by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), is discussing the possibility of holding two side-by-side votes intended to end the shutdown, per multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The first vote would be to reopen the government, while the second would be on a one-year extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits, plus a commitment to pass a longer-term solution by a date certain.

Locking this in would require unanimous consent, of course, and Republicans have already ruled out the idea of tying an Obamacare extension to government funding. Plus, progressives — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have rejected a one-year Obamacare credits extension, which would punt the problem to right before the midterms.

“If they want us to actually negotiate, quit holding the American people hostage and open the government back up,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who speaks with Trump multiple times per day.

Yet the bipartisan talks clearly illustrate a desire among lawmakers in both parties to find an escape hatch for a shutdown that’s lasted far longer than many lawmakers predicted.

Democrats have said over and over that the only way the shutdown ends is if Trump gets directly involved and pushes Thune to negotiate an Obamacare deal with Democrats. Thune on Wednesday dismissed the idea, saying the president and his team are already engaged.

A White House official said Trump, Thune, Johnson and Hill Republicans “are all in lockstep and have been the entire Democrat shutdown,” adding: “It’s not difficult to be on the same page when you’re on the right one.”

Fly Out Day today! House Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be our guest on Fly Out Day today. Subscribe to our YouTube channel.

— Andrew Desiderio

Join us for a conversation with Reps. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) and Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) on Thursday, Oct. 23, at 8:30 a.m. ET. We’ll sit down with Griffith and DeGette to discuss news of the day and their efforts to advance policy for cancer prevention and early detection. RSVP now!

CASH DASH

Takeaways from a big FEC filing day

Wednesday was the last FEC filing day of 2025, offering a trove of fundraising data that helps bring the midterms into focus.

We’ll be dissecting these latest reports in the coming days. But today we’ll start with two main takeaways for you.

First, Senate Democrats are absolutely dominating the dash-for-cash in most key swing states. The good news for the GOP is that they often have the edge in super PAC spending. And Republican candidates are increasingly relying on joint fundraising committees to air TV ads. Neither are reflected in these totals.

Second, the Q3 reports, which cover from July 1 to Sept. 30, put an exclamation point on the generational battles happening inside the Democratic Party.

Senate battlegrounds. Democratic incumbents and candidates massively outraised Republicans in three of the top four 2026 Senate races. Let’s look at the numbers.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $12 million in Q3 and has $21 million banked. Ossoff’s three GOP opponents, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Mike Collins (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley, each raised less than $2 million. These GOP hopefuls will also have to spend some of that fighting each other to win the nomination while Ossoff is free to continue stockpiling.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins raised $1.9 million in Q3. Maine Gov. Janet Mills said she raised more than half of that total during her first 24 hours in the race. And oysterman Graham Platner raised $3.2 million. But Collins — seeking a sixth Senate term — already has $6.7 million on hand, while Platner and Mills will have to spend against each other.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper raised $10.9 million. Former RNC Chair Michael Whatley raised just $1.4 million. A joint fundraising committee for Whatley, which can run TV ads on his behalf, did raise $4.5 million.

Michigan is the rare bright spot for the GOP. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) reported raising $2.2 million. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed raised between $1.7 million and $1.9 million each.

Texas isn’t a top battleground quite yet. But it’s worth noting that incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn was outraised by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, $1.3 million to $910,000. Cornyn does have twice as much cash-on-hand with $6 million in the bank. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who just entered the race, raised $366,000 in Q3.

Democrats in the Texas race outraised them all, however. Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) raised $4.9 million. State Rep. James Talarico raised $6.3 million.

Generational uprising. Older House Democrats have been bombarded by an onslaught of younger primary challengers calling for a new generation of party leaders.

In a sure sign this uprising has momentum, several longtime Democratic incumbents were outraised last quarter. Let’s take a look:

– Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) raised $809,000 in Q3. Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin raised $1.2 million. Bronin also has more cash-on-hand than the 14-term Larson.

– Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.) raised $612,000 in Q3. Former venture capitalist Eric Jones raised $1.5 million, including a $150,000 candidate contribution. Thompson was first elected to the House in 1998.

– Longtime Memphis Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) raised just $41,000 in Q3. Cohen’s opponent, state Rep. Justin J. Pearson, didn’t enter the race until Q4. But Pearson said in a press release that he raised $200,000 in the first 36 hours. The 76-year-old Cohen has been in office since 2007.

– Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) raised $323,000. His challenger, former Biden official Jake Levine, raised $694,000. But Sherman, who first won election to the House in 1996, has $4.3 million in the bank versus just $552,000 for Levine.

– Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), 88, is facing a growing crowd of Democratic challengers. Norton raised just $3,227 in Q3, and she has less than $6,500 cash on hand. Norton has also loaned her reelection committee $90,000. One Norton opponent, Kinney Zalesne, raised $436,000 and has $357,000 in the bank.

– Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

Tech: Spectrum skirmish pulls in administration

The opposing camps in the latest spectrum fracas are both claiming to have the Trump administration on their side.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said both Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine have told the Nebraska Republican that they “understand” and support her proposal to give the Pentagon more power to block auctions of Pentagon airwaves.

But Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is pointing to a White House policy statement opposing the provision to say President Donald Trump doesn’t want the new restrictions enacted.

“I expect that Congress will respect President Trump’s wishes,” Cruz said.

What’s going on here? We are back to a familiar place for anyone who’s followed the GOP spectrum wars — Fischer and Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) are pitted against Cruz over the fate of spectrum used by the military.

The Senate’s National Defense Authorization Act includes a provision from Fischer that would block any auctions of certain Pentagon airwaves unless both the defense secretary and the joint chiefs chair jointly agree to the sale.

The frequencies in question are already carved out from auctions until 2034 under an agreement between Fischer, Rounds and Cruz as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

But Fischer said it’s important to also have the military’s top brass’ “perspective” before any auctions.

“I’ve been in classified briefings, and because of my position on the Strategic Forces subcommittee, we have briefings that other senators don’t have. There is a definite need to be able to have that spectrum,” Fischer said.

But Cruz has said the provision represents an “insidious power grab” to give the military more control over the federal government’s airwaves. In the policy statement Cruz pointed to, the White House said the proposal would “hinder the President’s executive authority.”

Fischer told us the White House “knows” her “feelings” and that officials there “hear it” from the DoD too. We’ll note that Rounds, a longtime Fischer ally on these issues, supports her provision. Fischer also told us that Senate leadership has made a commitment to keep her proposal in the final NDAA.

The Pentagon didn’t respond to our request for comment on Fischer’s spectrum proposal.

– Diego Areas Munhoz

The Vault: Warren sends letter blast on Trump layoffs

News: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sent a salvo of letters to cabinet secretaries Wednesday evening demanding details about each department’s plans to lay off federal workers en masse during the ongoing government shutdown.

Warren wrote to the heads of the Treasury, Commerce, and Housing and Urban Development departments seeking answers about “reduction-in-force” efforts underway amid the shutdown. Each cabinet secretary was told by Warren that the motivations behind each RIF “appear purely political.”

The Massachusetts Democrat focused on agencies in the remit of the Senate Banking Committee, where she’s the ranking member.

A letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — also signed by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) — warned that “these RIFs, if fully implemented, will have significant implications for the Treasury Department’s ability to comply with its statutory mandates once the government reopens.”

The letters to Commerce and HUD follow similar lines of inquiry.

For each department, Warren asked leaders to provide organizational charts for staff, staffing levels on Jan. 20, 2025 and copies of each RIF notice distributed to employees.

Read the letter to Treasury here, Commerce here and HUD here.

– Brendan Pedersen

THE CAMPAIGN

Redistricting latest: Indiana GOP state legislative leaders are taking the temperature of their members on redistricting after a visit from Vice President JD Vance last week.

Republican caucuses in the Indiana House and Senate are taking internal votes this week on whether to move forward, according to multiple people with knowledge of the plans. The White House has now made multiple attempts to court hesitant Hoosier State Republicans to back the push.

GOP Gov. Mike Braun is expected to make a decision soon and is likely to call a special session for redistricting, according to people familiar with his thinking. Braun could choose a date around Organization Day in November, when state legislators would already be traveling to the state capitol.

Indiana holds significant opportunity for Republicans in the redistricting wars unfolding around the country. The GOP could target Indiana’s two Democratic representatives, creating a 9-0 delegation for Republicans.

Kansas news: Sandy Spidel Neumann, a former business executive, is running for Senate in Kansas as a Democrat. In her launch video, Spidel Neumann slams Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) for failing to stop tariffs and protect rural hospitals.

Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) also isn’t ruling out a Senate run in the event GOP redistricting is successful in Kansas.

New Mexico news: Businessman Jose Orozco is joining the GOP primary to take on Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.). Check out Orozco’s launch video here.

— Max Cohen, Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

MOMENTS

CLIPS