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October 18, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
It doesn’t look like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is going to be speaker of the House. If it wasn’t obvious to you Tuesday morning when we laid out 10-plus members who were likely to vote no, it should be obvious now.
Jordan lost 20 Republicans on the House floor Tuesday during the speaker tally, netting just 200 votes. He then pushed off another roll-call vote until Wednesday morning as even more Republicans looked ready to go against him. This has been a highly flawed run for the speakership that will be unpacked by aspirants for a long time to come.
The House is scheduled to come in at 11 a.m. for another roll-call vote. But after speaking with dozens of members and aides, it doesn’t look to us like the Ohio Republican has any path to victory.
Jordan’s GOP opponents huddled after the House session Tuesday, and nearly all of them said they were holding firm against the Ohio Republican. Senior GOP lawmakers predicted that Jordan could lose an additional 10 or more Republicans today on the floor.
We’re watching the following lawmakers who may abandon Jordan: GOP Reps. David Joyce (Ohio), Ann Wagner (Mo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Beth Van Duyne (Texas) and Drew Ferguson (Ga.). There were a few surprises in the vote Tuesday, so we expect more of that today.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) has switched his vote to Jordan, and Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), a Jordan backer, will be there today after missing the Tuesday vote.
If Jordan loses support, it would all but doom his effort, despite the strong backing he is getting from conservatives and right-wing media outlets.
Yet if Jordan can’t be speaker, who can?
There’s talk about House Majority Whip Tom Emmer making a run at the speakership. But frankly, if you’re Emmer, why get in a speaker race you are likely to lose with a conference this divided?
Other potential “consensus” candidates have been suggested as well. Reps. Mike Johnson (R-La.), Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and others have been floated. Some GOP lawmakers want to survey the Republican Conference and see if they can come up with some potential choices.
But no Republican is getting 217 votes for speaker at this point. And why run for the mayor of a city that’s just been nuked?
The easiest answer to resolve this crisis is for the House to formally elect Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry to the post. McHenry was appointed to the job by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. His authority is currently limited to overseeing the election of a new speaker.
Who else would you want to run this mess for the next few months? The 47-year-old North Carolina Republican (PMC turns 48 this weekend) is probably among the savviest inside players in Congress. McHenry started off as a Bush-era rabble-rouser following his initial 2004 election to the House and has slowly morphed into a leadership ally.
McHenry passed on a leadership run this Congress to serve as chair of the Financial Services Committee. But he’s also been one of McCarthy’s consiglieres for months. McHenry helped get McCarthy elected in the first place, and then he and Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) crafted May’s debt-limit deal. McHenry also aided McCarthy with the motion-to-vacate process.
There are a number of variables here to consider when pondering a McHenry speakership. Someone has to go to the floor with a resolution to formally elect McHenry. And secondly, McHenry can’t be elected speaker. No Republican can.
However, McHenry can be elected speaker pro tem for a limited period of time in order to help the House move past this current stalemate — provided he has Democratic support.
As far as House operations are concerned, there’s essentially no difference between a speaker and a speaker pro tem. There is a question whether a speaker pro tem would be in the presidential line of succession. There are also questions about whether he could take part in other speaker functions that have evolved over the years — Gang of Eight intelligence briefings, for instance.
Yet electing McHenry as speaker pro tem — or anyone else — isn’t establishing a “coalition government,” as some Republicans suggest. Committee ratios won’t change. The makeup of the Rules Committee won’t change. It won’t change what bills get considered. It just means the election of a speaker with a short expiration date. We’ve heard everything from Nov. 17 to Jan. 15. The House would then have to elect another speaker.
Speaker pro tems have been used by the House in the recent past, including the 1990s. Speakers have also been elected by resolution. See Sam Rayburn on that.
Here’s some news: We expect Joyce to file this motion to formally elect McHenry following the second vote on Jordan’s speakership today, assuming that the Ohio Republican falls short. The resolution needs 217 votes, meaning it will almost certainly need Democratic votes to pass. Republicans don’t anticipate negotiating with Democrats over the proposal — at least at the outset. We will have to see how Democrats react to the idea. But Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has floated the idea of supporting McHenry’s elevation.
A resolution of this nature could make McHenry speaker until the end of 2023 or sometime in early 2024 — or until a new speaker is elected.
And by the way, former speakers Newt Gingrich and John Boehner endorsed McHenry’s candidacy Tuesday night on Twitter — if that matters to you.
As we noted, the House is set to hold another Jordan roll-call vote today. And if that fails, as expected, Republicans will have some very difficult decisions to make.
Biden in Israel: President Joe Biden has arrived in Israel for his day-long trip there. Biden was greeted at the airport by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
Biden said that “based on what I’ve seen,” the deadly hospital bombing in Gaza was done “by the other team, not you.”
The hospital attack — which left hundreds dead, including children — has sparked protests against Israel and the United States worldwide and forced the cancellation of Biden’s visit to Jordan during this trip. Hamas blames Israel for the incident.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Tomorrow: Join us on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation about the future of cybersecurity with Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.). There’s still time to RSVP!
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Inside the Senate’s big push on Israel and Ukraine
The Senate is kicking off what will be a frenetic few weeks of action on the wars in Israel and Ukraine, setting the stage for a high-stakes clash with the currently speaker-less House.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are united on the need to quickly approve new funding and authorities for Israel in the aftermath of Hamas’ terrorist attacks. But McConnell also revealed Tuesday that he backs the White House’s expected effort to couple Israel aid with a long-anticipated Ukraine funding package that will cover a full year.
This puts McConnell, once again, directly at odds with House Republicans over Ukraine.
The price tag of the White House supplemental request is expected to be in the $100 billion range, with the biggest portion of that for Ukraine. McConnell said he also expects the White House will ask for Taiwan aid and a border security plan as part of this package. More on that below.
We told you weeks ago that the White House could seek anywhere between $60 billion to $80 billion in new military and economic support for Kyiv — an eye-popping number that will only embolden Ukraine opponents within the GOP.
But McConnell told us Tuesday that it makes sense to pair the Israel and Ukraine funding requests. Both countries, he argued, are engaged in similar struggles that have significant ramifications for U.S. national security.
“The most recent attack in Israel is part of a broader concern developed during the Ukraine war — basically, the democracies of the world are all on the same side,” McConnell told us, noting that Russia, Iran and North Korea have all aligned on the opposing sides of these conflicts.
“This is all interconnected,” McConnell added.
And Schumer is making clear that the Senate will not wait for the House to overcome its dysfunction. This is an indication that senators could very well, with McConnell’s blessing, pass a package that House Republicans — even the eventual speaker — won’t like.
“The House is sort of a mess,” Schumer said. “Therefore we think the best thing to do is pass a strong, big supplemental with strong bipartisan support. And that may force the House to act.”
Potential roadblocks: The jam-the-House strategy could get tricky if the next speaker holds firm against Ukraine aid.
House Republicans are pretty evenly split on Ukraine, making it a difficult issue for the eventual speaker to address. Of course, he or she could simply move to strip it out of the package or scale it back. Conservatives see the Ukraine-Israel pairing as an intimidation tactic.
“Basically they’re trying to give political cover to support unpopular Ukraine aid,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) told us. “They’re different issues and frankly the political implications of all of them are different.”
Ukraine won’t be the only thorny aspect of the supplemental. McConnell said Republicans would push for the inclusion of a “serious” and “credible” plan to address the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
This will be extremely difficult. During government funding negotiations last month, GOP senators tried but ultimately failed to come up with a border-related amendment that could pass the Senate and satisfy House conservatives. None of the dynamics surrounding this issue have changed, so it won’t be any easier to find a compromise.
— Andrew Desiderio
NOMINATION WATCH
Lew confirmation process kicks off as Dems try to break GOP blockade
As we mentioned above, the Senate will soon move on a massive Israel-Ukraine-Taiwan aid package. But the chamber’s broader effort on Israel begins in earnest later this morning.
The Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing at 10:30 a.m. for Jack Lew, President Joe Biden’s nominee to serve as U.S. ambassador to Israel.
Lew will be approved easily in committee next week. But Republicans are signaling to us that they won’t consent to an expedited confirmation on the floor. Any one senator can slow down the process. This puts Lew’s confirmation timeline into late October or early November.
Democrats were hoping that the urgency of having a Senate-confirmed envoy in Jerusalem would prompt Republicans — even those who oppose Lew — to allow an expedited floor process. As of now, that’s not looking likely.
“I don’t expect we’ll get unanimity on him, but [Republicans] should want to expedite the [process] for voting on him,” Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told us.
Democrats are also working to un-stick several other diplomatic nominees — from ambassadors in the region to senior State Department officials in Washington — who are stalled because of Republican holds.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a vocal critic of these tactics, suggested it’s time to change the Senate’s rules if the GOP objections remain in place. Shaheen, who traveled to the Western Balkans last week, said it “sends a terrible message” to U.S. allies when the Senate’s processes seem “anti-democratic.”
“When I say to people in New Hampshire, ‘One person can hold up all of those [nominations],’ they say, ‘You guys are crazy, why do you allow that to happen?’” Shaheen told us. “And I can’t explain that. It doesn’t make sense.”
Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) blockade of senior military promotions is also looming over the current crisis in Israel. Several key military roles in the Middle East do not have a Senate-confirmed officer. Tuberville told us this week that he’s feeling no additional pressure to back down in light of the war in Israel.
Democrats are looking to highlight this in addition to the diplomatic nominations being blocked. Shaheen said flatly that Tuberville is violating his oath of office. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who traveled to Israel this past weekend, noted that 12 U.S. Central Command officers are among the more than 300 promotions being blocked by Tuberville.
“If CENTCOM is not at full strength,” Kelly said, “it hurts Israel and it helps Hamas.”
— Andrew Desiderio
Bipartisan group presses Biden for crypto crackdown after Hamas attacks
A large bipartisan group of lawmakers demanded answers from the Treasury Department and White House Tuesday about the role crypto played in financing the recent Hamas terror attacks on Israel.
In a letter organized by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), dozens of lawmakers pointed to reporting in the Wall Street Journal last week that scrutinized the financing of terror attacks from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad on Israel. The WSJ reported that crypto is “one of a number of tools [Hamas] uses to raise funds.”
“Given the clear and present danger posed by the financing of these and other militant organizations,” the letter says, “we ask the Administration to provide additional details on its plan to prevent the use of crypto for the financing of terrorism.” Read the full letter here.
Warren has pushed for stricter anti-money laundering standards targeting the crypto sector along with Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who also signed on to the letter. Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) is leading the effort from the House side.
Warren and Marshall were joined by more than two dozen senators, including several committee chairs. Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have all signed on. The letter was also signed by Republican Sen. John Kennedy (La.).
Meanwhile in the House, the group collected more than 70 signatures from Democrats, including several House Financial Service Committee members.
Even before today’s letter, the bedraggled crypto sector has been treating the Hamas-crypto narrative like a five-alarm fire in Washington. Advocates argue that well-known crypto firms such as Coinbase have established relationships with law enforcement and have a track record of identifying illicit activity.
But the crypto sector simply doesn’t have a lot of goodwill in Washington these days. If there’s a chance that Warren and other supporters could tack their bill onto another piece of legislation, we expect them to seize the opportunity.
Committee shakeup: It’s musical chairs on the Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is leaving for a spot on the Senate Appropriations Committee, where she’s replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) Taking Sinema’s chair on the banking panel is Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) after being sworn in two weeks ago.
— Brendan Pedersen
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Three of the most powerful congressional Democrats are addressing key liberal groups today on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who visited Israel over the weekend, will participate in an emergency briefing on “Hamas Terror & Israel’s Response” at a Jewish Democratic Council of America event. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also speak, along with Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Kathy Manning (D-N.C.).
Want to hear former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s take? She’ll be addressing the progressive Jewish group J Street to “speak with the pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy movement.”
— Max Cohen
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