Do Democrats now have an off ramp?

IN THIS EDITION

Yet another critical week for the shutdown as Nov. 1 looms

Jeffries amps up Dem pushback in redistricting wars

Crunch time for Grijalva lawsuit

Dems outraged over planned DOE firings

THE TOP

Yet another critical week for the shutdown as Nov. 1 looms

Happy Monday morning.

Today is Day 20 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to the crisis.

This is now the third-longest government shutdown in U.S. history. It’s already the longest full government shutdown ever. The 2018-2019 (partial) shutdown lasted 35 days, while the 1995-96 spending impasse (also partial) lasted 21 days.

The House has been out of session for more than a month, a stunning development for a Republican Conference that’s bragged about its work ethic. House committees are completely frozen, giving up valuable time that they won’t be able to recoup this Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson has said that he won’t bring the chamber back into session until the government shutdown ends.

It’s trite and perhaps a bit understated to say that this will be a critical week for ending the shutdown. Every week is critical with 750,000 furloughed federal employees. But a few dynamics make the next few days especially important.

President Donald Trump — mostly checked out during the standoff — leaves Friday for Asia after spending the weekend at his Palm Beach, Fla., home. The White House feels as if it’s winning the political fight. So if Congress wants to get Trump’s attention, this is the moment to do so.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been practically begging Trump to get involved in negotiating a deal to extend the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Trump, though, has easily resisted these calls and is letting Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune run the shutdown strategy.

Off-ramp? We’ve written about how Nov. 1, the start of open enrollment for health insurance, could be a moment for Senate Democrats to declare “victory” and allow the government to reopen. Last week, top Democrats pushed back on this theory, saying Nov. 1 will only increase the pressure on Republicans to accede to their health care demands.

But now, there’s a sense within the Senate Democratic Caucus that this deadline is in fact their off-ramp to end the shutdown. Democrats can argue it’s no longer feasible for Congress to address the expiring Obamacare subsidies legislatively. The goal here would be to make Republicans own the soaring premium hikes and health-care coverage losses that millions of Americans would experience.

If Democrats are willing to accept a political victory without a policy win, this is a critical moment for Schumer to figure out what this looks like — and how he shields himself from inevitable criticism from the left. What does Schumer demand in exchange for Democratic votes to reopen the government? Is it a vote on extending the subsidies? Will Schumer cut loose some moderates and retiring Democrats? How does he message this publicly?

House Democrats have been led to believe that this shutdown could end with a legislative victory. So the cross-chamber invective will be especially sharp.

No decision has been made by Democratic leaders at this point. But with the shutdown dragging on and the real-world consequences compounding, many Democrats see this as a reasonable exit strategy.

Senate action. The Senate will vote tonight for the 11th time on the House-passed CR. It will fail. The more interesting vote this week will be on a GOP bill to pay federal workers who have been forced to work without pay, including members of the military. That vote is likely to happen on Wednesday or Thursday.

While a few Democratic senators will probably vote for this measure, led by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), we don’t expect it to get 60 votes. Democrats believe this is a “show vote” on a bill that would give new funding to Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought to use as they please.

Cash crunch. Federal employees are slated to miss their first full paycheck this week. Federal employees are scheduled to get paid on Oct. 24. This pay period covers Oct. 4 through Oct. 18, and the government was shuttered that entire time.

The Congressional Federal Credit Union, which serves many Hill employees, is already offering “furlough solutions” – “fast relief built for shutdowns.”

There are concerns that air traffic controllers could begin not showing up for work without getting paid, snarling the nation’s already troubled aviation system.

Small business loans have stalled, as have loans to farmers, with U.S. Department of Agriculture offices closed nationwide.

Still hanging over all of this is Vought’s threat to lay off 10,000 federal workers. Roughly 4,200 have been laid off during the shutdown.

WIC and SNAP. WIC and SNAP, the massive federal nutrition programs that help feed millions of Americans, are in danger as well.

Trump administration officials have said they’re filling WIC’s coffers with tariff money to tide the program over during the shutdown. But there are warning signals nationwide.

In New Jersey, the state government has issued the following warning:

We could see governors forced to call special sessions to deal with the crisis.

Senate GOP to W.H. Senate Republicans will have lunch with Trump in the Rose Garden on Tuesday, as we scooped last night for Punchbowl News text subscribers. The lunch is designed for Trump to praise Senate Republicans for backing the president’s nominees – and sticking together during the shutdown.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Today at 9 a.m. ET: Join us for a conversation with Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer and Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) about the news of the day and how private capital is investing in America. You can still RSVP here!

REDISTRICTING WARS

Jeffries amps up Dem pushback in redistricting wars

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is escalating his efforts this week to thwart Republicans’ nationwide redistricting push.

The New York Democrat spent the weekend in southern California, campaigning for the Proposition 50 ballot initiative that would let Democrats gerrymander California’s congressional map.

Behind the scenes, Jeffries also has continued to lobby state lawmakers in Illinois for a stalled redistricting effort there, according to sources familiar with his plans.

And Jeffries has been plotting with Ohio Democrats on how to block a GOP attempt to draw out Democratic Reps. Emilia Sykes and Marcy Kaptur.

This multi-state effort is crucial for Democrats’ chances to retake the House majority.

California. The Nov. 4 special election for Prop 50 could net Democrats five House seats and neutralize the GOP’s new map in Texas.

Jeffries joined SEIU California President David Huerta on Saturday for a canvass launch in support of Prop 50. Jeffries also campaigned in Orange County with swing-seat Rep. Derek Tran (D-Calif.). On Sunday, Jeffries spoke at three African-American churches during a swing with Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.).

Here’s Jeffries’ pitch to voters on Prop 50:

Democrats are optimistic Prop 50 will pass, given the favorable polling and their huge TV spending advantage.

Ohio. Republicans are required by state law to redistrict for 2026. Democrats expect them to pass a map this fall targeting Sykes, Kaptur and maybe even Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).

Jeffries is increasingly turning his attention toward an attempt to stymie them. If Republicans pass their new map without bipartisan support, as expected, Democrats can force a referendum on that map by gathering roughly 250,000 signatures in the 90 days after the map is passed.

This will be an extremely expensive campaign. Jeffries is preparing to fundraise and increase awareness for a potential signature-gathering effort, according to sources familiar with his plans.

If Democrats can get signatures in time, the map wouldn’t go into effect until Ohio voters get a chance to approve it in November 2026. But that would leave the state without a map.

In that scenario, Democrats are hoping a state court would extend the current map through 2026. Republicans would likely ask that their new proposal take effect. There are a lot of unknowns here.

Illinois. Jeffries has been a driving force urging Democrats to redistrict in Illinois and net a seat by drawing out Rep. Mary Miller (R-Ill.). Those conversations continued this weekend, but he faces major roadblocks.

Democratic members from Illinois are wary of redistricting decreasing Black representation in their delegation or endangering Democrats in safe seats. Jeffries’ team has shown members a tweaked proposal of potential district lines in recent days to ease concerns.

The bigger issue lies in Springfield, where state lawmakers are hesitant to blow up their map with a ballot filing deadline that is just two weeks away.

Jeffries has made the case to Illinois legislative leadership that they should get on board with a new map to blunt President Donald Trump’s efforts in red states.

– Ally Mutnick

THE HOUSE

Crunch time for Grijalva lawsuit

The fight over swearing in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) is escalating this week. The state of Arizona is poised to sue to force Speaker Mike Johnson’s hand.

The Arizona attorney general’s office sent a letter last week demanding Johnson formally seat Grijalva “immediately.” Attorney General Kris Mayes wrote that if the speaker didn’t provide details about plans to swear in Grijalva by the end of last week, “we will be forced to seek judicial relief.”

That deadline has now passed. Mayes’ office didn’t have an update as of publication time, but we expect to see action this week in the form of a lawsuit.

Grijalva won a special election on Sept. 23 to represent the seat long held by her father, the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who died in March. Arizona formally certified the election results on Oct. 14. State officials then began to pursue legal action to force the issue.

Leaders weighing in. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Friday that “all options are on the table” when it comes to getting Adelita Grijalva seated.

“It’s my expectation that if she is not sworn in today, during the pro forma session today — as the Arizona attorney general has made clear — expect swift and decisive legal action,” Jeffries said.

On Friday, that pro forma came and went. House Democrats tried to get recognized to raise the swearing-in, but House Republicans once again didn’t bite.

Johnson has declared he won’t swear in Grijalva until the House is back in session. Johnson says the chamber will remain in recess until the Senate passes a CR to reopen the government. When that’s going to happen remains unclear.

The lawsuit is “a publicity stunt by a Democrat attorney general in Arizona who sees a national moment and wants to call me out,” Johnson told reporters Friday. “[Mayes] has nothing whatsoever to do with what’s happening in Congress.”

Johnson said he’ll allow Grijalva to take the oath of office “as soon as we get back to our regular legislative session, as I’ve said a thousand times.” Johnson called it the “Pelosi precedent,” citing a nearly one-month delay for swearing in Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) after her special election win in 2021.

Democrats have pointed to Johnson’s decision to swear in two Florida Republicans during a pro forma earlier this year, though.

Democrats also say the delay for Grijalva is an attempt to avoid a vote on releasing the Justice Department’s Jeffrey Epstein files. Grijalva would be the 218th signature on that discharge petition, which is enough to force a vote. Johnson has denied that it’s a factor.

— Laura Weiss and Max Cohen

ENERGY POLITICS

Dems outraged over planned DOE firings

Leading Democratic appropriators in the House and Senate are demanding more details on planned layoffs at the Energy Department.

In a new letter sent Friday, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) called on Energy Secretary Chris Wright to “immediately halt” any efforts tied to planned reductions in force and transmit information to the Hill justifying the moves.

The Energy Department has issued nearly 200 RIF notices to employees. Among the targeted divisions are the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, the State and Community Energy Programs and the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations.

“DOE should be advancing America’s clean energy future and reducing energy costs for consumers — not dismantling the offices that make it possible,” the lawmakers wrote. Kaptur and Murray are the top Democrats on their chambers’ respective Energy and Water Development Appropriations panels.

The Trump administration’s planned layoffs of some 4,000 total federal workers, including those at the Energy Department, were halted by a federal judge’s order last week.

Nuclear security. The firings won’t impact the agency tasked with overseeing the U.S. nuclear stockpile. However, the National Nuclear Security Administration is poised to furlough nearly 80% of its federal staff today after funding for a key account ran dry over the weekend, as we previously reported. That’ll leave just 375 federal workers on the job. It remains unclear how many NNSA contractors could ultimately be furloughed.

Wright plans to visit the Nevada National Security Site today and make a stop in Las Vegas to highlight the impact of the ongoing shutdown on workforce retention and efforts to upgrade weapons, according to the Energy Department notice. NNSA is housed within DOE.

The next cliff for the National Nuclear Security Administration: Oct. 27 — the date that funding for the office responsible for transporting nuclear materials is set to run out.

— Briana Reilly

AND THERE’S MORE

News: The Senate Opportunity Fund, a group aligned with Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, is beginning a two-week ad buy boosting Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

The $250,000 campaign will run for two weeks on digital, streaming and radio in the Des Moines, Iowa, media market. Hinson is the GOP frontrunner for Iowa’s open Senate seat.

The 30-second spot touts Hinson’s support of no taxes on tips, stronger border security and policies that strengthen agriculture.

Downtown Download: Dwayne Carson, the former top lobbyist at Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, is launching Carson Consulting — his own lobbying shop. Carson was a longtime Hill Republican aide, serving as deputy director of the Republican Study Committee as part of his work for former Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.).

Carson has also worked in federal affairs for BlueCross BlueShield.

— Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

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