Is there life in the Senate?

IN THIS EDITION

Spending talks have a faint pulse

Ohio Republicans cut redistricting deal with Dems

Tech: Smartphone bill backers ramp up

Smith on shutdown, Congress’ role in helping small businesses

THE TOP

Spending talks have a faint pulse

Happy Thursday morning.

News: President Donald Trump says he has reached a trade deal with China. In his telling, the agreement will have China begin buying soybeans and oil and gas from the United States. Trump said China will also “continue the flow” of rare earth materials. In exchange, Trump will cut tariffs on Chinese goods.

Today is Oct. 30. That means it’s been a month since FY2025 ended and federal agencies closed. This will become the longest government shutdown in American history by the end of next week barring some miracle. The Senate is heading home this afternoon without doing anything to reopen the government.

There’s been absolutely no movement for weeks now. Every potential off-ramp has been closed, with both Republicans and Democrats digging in even deeper.

Has that definitively changed? No.

But there’s been some optimistic talk in the Capitol over the last few days, with rank-and-file senators saying they’ve restarted bipartisan negotiations over FY2026 spending bills.

Let’s be abundantly clear here: A bipartisan appropriations package doesn’t solve what’s at the heart of this shutdown impasse — a fundamental disagreement over the Covid-era enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Democrats have said they won’t vote to reopen the government without a concrete deal on these tax credits. And the vast majority of Republicans — including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune — have little to no interest in extending them.

Thune raised eyebrows Wednesday after saying he would be meeting “pretty soon” with Democrats who’ve been involved in informal bipartisan talks over health care and the shutdown. But Thune later said he doesn’t have “anything to report” about a potential meeting and said his position remains the same: Open up the government, then we’ll talk.

Yet the view among senators goes like this: Any progress — or even better, an agreement — on full-year spending bills can help sweeten whatever Obamacare-related deal materializes to end the shutdown.

It’s also a way to rebuild bipartisan trust that’s all but disappeared during this bitter shutdown fight.

The theory seems to be that Congress should try to get a spending deal and hope that Trump will eventually engage on Obamacare subsidies. This is a risky bet. Trump, who is just finishing a major Asia trip, has been unwilling to do anything so far to end the shutdown. An alternative view is that Trump could cut a deal with Democrats that Republicans hate.

Another weakness in this strategy for Democrats is that it further separates the Obamacare issue from government funding.

Unless Republicans decide to negotiate on ACA subsidies now (they say they won’t) or Democrats are willing to accept a GOP promise that health care talks will start after the government is open (they say they can’t), this shutdown will drag on without an obvious end.

But the FY2026 spending talks are at least registering some very modest signs of life.

For now, the imminent expiration of SNAP funding and the increasingly frequent air traffic delays at major hubs across the United States are focusing Congress’ mind on the absurdity of the now month-long shutdown.

The spending wars. Bipartisan discussions on the full-year spending bills picked up on Wednesday after being at a standstill over the last few weeks. That doesn’t mean lawmakers are on the precipice of reopening the government anytime soon. For many senators, this is more about avoiding a year-long CR than anything else.

Democrats ran a hotline Wednesday night on an agreement to group three appropriations bills with the defense spending bill, as we scooped: Labor-HHS, Transportation-HUD and Commerce-Justice-Science. The hotline — a way to check for objections — also included language from Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) regarding the dispute over the new FBI headquarters.

After blocking a vote on the FY2026 Defense appropriations bill two weeks ago, Democrats are looking to show there would be no problems on their side to move forward with a larger spending package.

Instead, there may be issues on the GOP side. Conservatives likely will have problems with the bipartisan Labor-HHS bill that the Senate Appropriations Committee advanced. The FBI issue in CJS also roiled the Appropriations panel earlier this year. Plus, appropriators included an amendment in the CJS bill that would require Attorney General Pam Bondi to give the panel a report on disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The Democratic hotline came shortly after Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said that when Democrats blocked the defense spending bill earlier this month, she wanted to add more than just the Labor-HHS bill. The Democratic hotline includes two additional spending bills for a total of four.

Collins also wants to finalize a bicameral agreement on the three-bill minibus the Senate already passed, which would cover Agriculture, Military Construction-VA and the Legislative Branch.

“These have been bipartisan negotiations with the ‘Four Corners,’” Collins said, referring to the top GOP and Democratic appropriators in both the House and Senate. “They could be wrapped up very quickly.”

The House. This structure could present both Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries with problems.

Even though Johnson says he wants a bipartisan, bicameral spending deal, anything that comes out of the Senate will face gigantic hurdles in a conference committee and eventually on the House floor. That’s been true all throughout this shutdown. The rubber is going to meet the road on this for Johnson at some point.

And for Jeffries, the separation of Obamacare and FY2026 spending is going to be a problem. House Democratic leaders have taken a very, very clear line that the two need to stay connected.

But it’s clear that the Senate is beginning to appear interested in getting out of this shutdown. And it will be up to Jeffries to square that circle with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

News: Vice President JD Vance will lead a roundtable at the White House this afternoon focused on how the shutdown is impacting aviation.

We’re told that the attendees include Airlines for America CEO and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, and other industry leaders.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Samantha Handler

TODAY: Join us at 9:15 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.). We’ll be streaming live from the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Summit. Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer and Senior Congressional Reporter Andrew Desiderio will sit down with Luján following a fireside chat with David Solomon, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, and Khari Parker, co-founder of Connie’s Chicken and Waffles. RSVP now!

REDISTRICTING WARS

Ohio Republicans cut redistricting deal with Dems

News: Republicans on Ohio’s redistricting commission struck a deal with Democrats on a compromise congressional map after hours of late-night deliberations.

Here are the details, according to multiple sources close to the process:

– Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes will be drawn into a slightly more favorable northeast Ohio district, although it will still be very competitive.

– Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will be in a redder Cincinnati-area district, though it will also still be competitive.

– Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur will see her northwest Ohio district become slightly more red. Kaptur is currently in a seat President Donald Trump won by 7 points.

The current Ohio delegation split is 10 Republicans to five Democrats. The remaining two Democrats, Reps. Joyce Beatty in Columbus and Shontel Brown in Cleveland, remain in deep blue districts.

And Democrats retain an outside chance of contesting seats held by GOP Reps. Max Miller, Mike Carey and Mike Turner.

This compromise is a shocking development. Ohio’s constitution mandates a complicated redistricting process that includes the commission and the state legislature. The Buckeye State is required to redraw its map for 2026 because it passed in 2021 without bipartisan support.

Both parties expected the commission to reach a stalemate and that redistricting would revert back the state’s GOP-controlled legislature.

But Democrats were able to successfully leverage the prospect of a referendum campaign. For their part, Republicans dangled the threat of pushing through a less favorable map if Democrats rejected their offer.

The redistricting commission will meet today at 4 p.m. ahead of its Oct. 31 deadline to submit the map.

This new map proposal is certainly worse for Democrats. But it’s not as bad as it could be. In a very strong Democratic year, Kaptur, Landsman and Sykes could win reelection.

Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission showed Democrats a map that would doom Kaptur, Sykes and Landsman, according to a source close to the process, and they said the state legislature would introduce that 13R-2D map on Nov. 1 if no deal was reached by the commission.

The calculus. This map is a safe bet for Democrats. Two seats get worse, but one gets slightly better. Why would they hesitate to take it?

The redistricting commission map is final. A legislature-enacted map could be frozen for 2026 and put before the voters in a referendum if Democrats can collect some 250,000 signatures in 90 days.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said he would fundraise and support any signature-gathering campaign. But it would be a herculean effort in the middle of fall and into the holiday season. It’s a high-risk, high-reward option.

Meanwhile, Republicans accepted a worse map than they may have had otherwise in exchange for avoiding the uncertainty of a referendum.

Some additional thoughts to consider: Emilia Sykes is the daughter of Vernon Sykes, who served in the Ohio legislature for more than four decades before retiring in 2024. The elder Sykes had good relationships with Republican lawmakers who are now deciding the fate of his daughter’s congressional district.

One name to watch as the map is finalized: Ohio Senate President Rob McColley is eyeing Kaptur’s seat, according to sources familiar with his plans. Republicans believed McColley would angle for his home in Henry County to be drawn into the district, scrambling the primary field there.

– Ally Mutnick

Tech: Smartphone bill backers ramp up

The bipartisan House duo behind a bill that would take on Apple’s and Google’s smartphone app stores is ramping up their push to get support for the measure on Thursday.

The effort from Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) and Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) comes as the House Energy and Commerce Committee moves to finalize a package of bills aimed at protecting kids online — a potential vehicle for the two lawmakers’ legislation.

Cammack and Trahan are sending a “Dear Colleague” to fellow House members seeking more co-sponsors for their App Store Freedom Act, and noting the upcoming panel’s kids safety push.

Here’s their pitch on the “control” that Apple and Google exercise over consumers’ access to smartphone apps:

The lawmakers’ plea for more co-sponsors comes amid some momentum. Three lawmakers — Reps. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.), Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.) and James Comer (R-Ky.) — have already signed on this week.

The bill focuses on competition and represents a rare effort to regulate Apple in particular. It would require allowing users to hide Apple and Google default apps in favor of rivals’ offerings, or to use third-party app stores.

Cammack and Trahan said in the letter, however, that the two Big Tech companies’ control gets in the way of “a kids-first app store… built from the ground up to protect kids, replete with a curated set of apps, tailored review practices run by experts in child safety, and feature-rich parental controls.”

We’ll note that Apple and Google have been turning up parental controls, and Apple has expanded the details on its app age ratings. Both companies argue they use their app stores to screen out dangerous apps, while third-party app stores would let malicious apps in.

We recently scooped that outside advocates from both sides of the political spectrum have been urging House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) to wrap the app store bill into the kids package.

In addition, the Coalition for App Fairness, a trade group that’s been a key force pushing the bill, announced on Tuesday it had added Elon Musk’s social media app X to its membership.

— Ben Brody

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Smith on shutdown, Congress’ role in helping small businesses

Punchbowl News joined Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses Summit Wednesday for a conversation with Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.).

Smith discussed the shutdown and said a clean continuing resolution is the right move to avoid the “gamesmanship” in Congress.

He warned that the government will end up spending more once it reopens.

Small business: Smith suggested ways policymakers can strengthen small businesses, including “the federal government getting out of the way.”

He also urged small business owners to share their stories with Congress.

“You’re on the front lines of the economy,” Smith said. “Your challenges, your victories along the way, it’s very important for us to hear that.”

Fireside chat: Kevin O’Leary, entrepreneur and star of ABC’s “Shark Tank,” and Jill Bommarito, founder and CEO of Ethel’s Baking Co., implored Congress to support small businesses.

“Our message, tomorrow, and every day is please make it easier for small businesses to have access to capital,” Bommarito said.

O’Leary said talking with Hill staffers helped him fix “bad law” in the big Republican policy bill.

Watch the full conversation here.

Punchbowl News will host another conversation this morning with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) on artificial intelligence and small business at 9:15 a.m. You can watch it here.

– Shania Shelton

THE CAMPAIGN

The NRDC Action Fund is running an ad in Lansing, Mich., featuring an actor playing Babe Ruth. Really. The actor says that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — which Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) supported — is “no home run.” This may be the only time we see Babe Ruth in a campaign ad in the 2026 cycle.

You can watch the spot here.

— Jake Sherman

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