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October 4, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Welcome to a House Republican leadership race and all it entails. These contests are personal, political, regional and very rough and tumble.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s stunning downfall at the hands of hardline conservatives has set off a chain reaction inside the upper ranks of the GOP conference. The only spot technically open right now is speaker, but that could quickly change.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise has already made an extensive round of calls seeking endorsements for speaker. He’ll meet with the Texas Republican delegation today (other candidates may, too). The 25 Texas votes are the biggest prize out there for House Republicans. Scalise already locked up the endorsement of Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas).
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the powerful Judiciary Committee chair and a conservative favorite, is making calls and sounding out supporters. It could get very interesting very fast if Jordan, who is aligned with McCarthy and being pushed by some of his allies, enters the race. A Jordan-Scalise speaker race would be one for the books.
Both Scalise and Jordan will have trouble capturing moderate support. So another centrist candidate may emerge.
Let’s start here: Scalise is the early favorite by dint of his position and operation. Does that guarantee he’ll win? No. But he’s the clear favorite. We’ll do a quick SWOT to explain why.
Strengths: In leadership races, the incumbent has a massive advantage. The Louisiana Republican has a sophisticated staff operation that has been running and winning leadership races for nine years.
Remember how difficult it is to get to 218. Scalise starts with the highest floor of all Republicans. Now that floor may not be as high as McCarthy’s was, somewhere around 200 votes. But Scalise has an array of GOP allies including House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (Texas), Reps. Drew Ferguson (Ga.), Ann Wagner (Mo.), Brad Wenstrup (Ohio), Vern Buchanan (Fla.), August Pfluger (Texas) and Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.). Scalise will draw heavily from the South — just like he did when he first broke into the leadership in 2014.
Team Scalise is tight knit. The majority leader has had the same cadre of aides around him for years. That starts with his chief of staff Brett Horton, a fellow Louisianan who has been with Scalise since 2010.
Here’s something else to consider: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has already endorsed Scalise. Emmer was thought to be eyeing the speakership himself, despite his inexperience in the leadership. But Emmer told us Tuesday night that he believes Scalise “would make a great speaker.” That would also allow Emmer to move up to majority leader.
Let’s be honest here. Scalise is more of a hardliner than McCarthy. If you are one of the lawmakers who want the speaker to take the hardline position from the outset, Scalise is your guy. That’s not a criticism — but it should be said that Scalise isn’t one to revert to compromise early.
Weaknesses: OK, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Scalise was recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer, and he’s undergoing chemotherapy.
Scalise also was nearly killed by a crazed gunman in a June 2017 mass shooting. The guy has been through the ringer, physically and mentally. Does Scalise have what it takes to be speaker? Can he be on the road 100-plus days per year, away from his wife and children, doing the political travel required of modern speakers? His allies say yes, and Scalise says he’s fine. But there’s a definite hesitancy that we sense from some in Scalise’s orbit.
Scalise raises nowhere near the money that McCarthy raises. That’s just a fact. McCarthy is a prolific fundraiser who seemed to relish the plane-to-hotel-to-plan grind to fill the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund’s coffers.
But the big problem for Scalise, to put it bluntly, is separating himself from the specter of McCarthy. The psychodrama between McCarthy and Scalise dates back 15 years. We lived it. The two men never really trusted each other. And we’re seeing lawmakers make the case that it’s time for a completely new face atop the conference. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a leading centrist, told us he wasn’t ready to commit to Scalise, which is the same posture he took back in January.
Remember: The New York GOP delegation is a small but influential group. You’ll see people like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) emerge as a power broker, of sorts. Swing-district lawmakers such as Lawler and New York GOP Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito and Marc Molinaro are furious with the hardliners and are going to want someone to confront them. McCarthy spent time and tens of millions of dollars getting these New Yorkers elected. Scalise will be a tough sell for them.
Opportunities: Scalise can’t really throw McCarthy under the bus, or he’ll risk alienating hardcore McCarthy supporters. But Scalise has seen McCarthy operate up close and can spell out how he’ll operate differently.
Threats: We mentioned Jordan’s real interest in the race above. There are doubts that Jordan can win over moderates, but he’d be a huge hit with conservatives, both on the Hill and in right-wing media. He’s a strong fundraiser. Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) are already backing the Ohio Republican. Jordan would be a legit threat to Scalise, although he may not be interested in the political side of being speaker.
When asked by CNN’s Manu Raju whether he will run for speaker, Jordan responded “That’s a decision for the conference.”
Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry seems to not want the gig, even though he already has the security detail on account of this temporary position. McHenry shook his head “No” when we asked if he was interested Tuesday night. However, there’s a large group of House Republicans who would want his services atop the party.
Other members to watch: RSC Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) may look at a race for speaker, but we can’t imagine he’d draw much interest from the moderate crowd. Hern may look at other posts when they come open.
This will be a tremendously interesting week. The candidate forum is currently scheduled for next Tuesday and the internal GOP election is next Wednesday.
Also: If Scalise and Emmer move up to speaker and majority leader, there’ll be an opening at whip. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), the chief deputy whip, will have a big advantage here.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
NEW: Join us on Thursday, Oct. 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y) on cybersecurity and AI. This event is a part of our exciting new digital platform that launched Tuesday, The Future of Cybersecurity, presented by Google. RSVP now to join us in person or on the livestream!
THE SENATE
Senate Republicans whack House GOP dysfunction
Republican senators were aghast on Tuesday after a small minority of the House GOP Conference booted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from the speakership.
In the upper chamber, Republicans immediately saw practical implications for the must-pass agenda — from appropriations to the Defense authorization bill — and for their party’s own standing ahead of the 2024 elections.
“It raises questions about whether or not some Republicans can govern,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said bluntly. “That’s going to be an issue.”
Senate Republicans described McCarthy as essentially a martyr for the cause of averting a government shutdown over the weekend by putting forth a stopgap funding bill that a big chunk of the House GOP conference opposed.
Tillis said McCarthy “showed some skill” in pushing through the 45-day stopgap measure on Saturday. But that was what put McCarthy’s detractors over the edge and resulted in a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair on Tuesday.
Here’s how Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell put it in a statement released late Tuesday night:
Other Republicans were more candid.
“Clearly, it’s a great day for the House Democrats,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said. “They’re happy.”
“There is a faction in both parties, but certainly most visibly in mine, that wants to perform and be seen, as opposed to actually legislate and govern,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) added. “And that is what’s led to the outcome you saw today.”
What haunted McCarthy throughout his brief tenure was his willingness to rely on Democratic votes for must-pass legislation — such as the debt-limit compromise — when he couldn’t pass something with only GOP votes.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has met frequently with McCarthy, said it was a “sad day when you have 5% of a caucus [who say] it’s a political crime to talk to the other side.”
“Thank God we still have the filibuster,” Manchin said of the Senate. “If not, we’d be the same [as the House]. That’s the most important thing.”
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) had some choice words for his fellow Montanan, GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale, who was among the eight Republicans voting to oust McCarthy. Daines, of course, is the NRSC chair and Rosendale is flirting with a Senate run — something Daines and others are urging against.
“I didn’t realize that Matt Rosendale and Nancy Pelosi attend the same prayer group,” Daines said.
Funding worries: A more immediate concern for lawmakers is the fact that the government shuts down in 44 days and neither chamber is making progress on FY2024 appropriations bills, raising the possibility that another continuing resolution will be needed in mid-November.
This is exactly the outcome that conservatives who ousted McCarthy want to avoid.
“It just adds additional uncertainty to the process,” said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a former House member. “We already have a pretty busy legislative calendar between now and year’s end, and that detracts from our productivity.”
Just two GOP senators we spoke with seemed to validate the arguments of the eight Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy from the speakership.
“There was a real breakdown in trust with those that voted against him,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said, knocking McCarthy for a “breach of faith” over the legislation that raised the debt limit.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he was “very sympathetic” to those House Republicans’ views on the appropriations process, but declined to weigh in on whether it was wise to oust McCarthy.
— Andrew Desiderio
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Cardin blocks military aid for Egypt after Menendez’s SFRC ouster
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) announced Tuesday he would block U.S. military aid to Egypt, citing the country’s deteriorating human-rights record.
This is a fascinating development following the indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), whom Cardin replaced as chair of the powerful panel.
Menendez is accused by federal prosecutors of accepting bribes to take official actions to benefit the Egyptian government — including pushing for Egypt to receive U.S. aid under the foreign military financing program.
Without mentioning Menendez, Cardin said it was “imperative that we continue to hold the government of Egypt, and all governments, accountable for their human-rights violations.”
Here’s more of what Cardin said in a lengthy statement released Tuesday night:
Cardin added that his hold will remain in place “until specific human-rights progress is made.”
Under current law, the chair and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs panels have the authority to unilaterally block certain weapons transfers and sales to foreign governments.
The Biden administration views the military aid Cardin is blocking — totaling around $235 million — as essential to security in the region. However, the State Department has held back a small portion of it to push Egypt to improve its human-rights record.
In his statement, Cardin acknowledged that Egypt is a vital U.S. security partner but said that government should cease its widespread crackdown on dissent before its military gets more U.S. aid.
— Andrew Desiderio
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PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
Did you miss our pop-up event Tuesday with Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) discussing national security, foreign policy and artificial intelligence? You can watch the full conversation here:
THE CAMPAIGN
News: The Republican Main Street Partnership is launching a six-figure digital ad campaign boosting GOP members who backed the bipartisan stopgap funding bill that passed last weekend.
Of course, this continuing resolution has drawn the ire of many House Republicans — most prominently the hardliners who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday.
The Republican members of the House who will be receiving RMSP back up are Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Dan Newhouse (Wash.), Bryan Steil (Wis.) and Mike Simpson (Idaho).
Here’s an example of an ad backing up Chavez-DeRemer, who represents a district won by President Joe Biden in 2020. The image urges voters to thank their representatives for “keeping the government open.”
— Max Cohen
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