The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Schumer, McConnell with the majority on the line

Hawley’s evolution from firebrand to… dealmaker?

Lawmakers beef up personal security over safety fears

News: Cuban, Hoffman spearhead Business Leaders for Harris group

THE TOP

Schumer, McConnell with the majority on the line

Happy Friday morning. There are 32 days until Election Day.

As promised, we’re focusing this morning on the two Senate leaders as part of our semi-regular Leader Look series. In case you missed it, our examination of House leadership ran in yesterday’s AM edition.

Chuck Schumer

The Senate majority leader is coming off yet another government funding fight where his position won out — a clean bipartisan bill free of poison pills.

Schumer didn’t take the bait on Speaker Mike Johnson’s six-month CR with the SAVE Act gambit. It helped that Senate GOP leaders and the White House had no interest in Johnson’s plan either. But Schumer has been able to keep his caucus unified through consecutive bicameral negotiations.

Yet the lame-duck session might not be as kind to Schumer. Congress will have only five weeks to hammer out a huge FY2025 spending package. Lawmakers also need to pass the annual defense authorization bill once the Senate and House versions are reconciled. Each of those could take at least a week of floor time.

Schumer has already shown he wants to prioritize confirming President Joe Biden’s judicial nominees. He also held a handful of messaging votes over the summer. But this came at the expense of passing individual appropriations bills or the Senate’s version of the NDAA, drawing strong rebukes from Republicans.

The New York Democrat reasoned that judicial nomination votes were a better use of the Senate’s time. As a result, Democrats and Biden are close to eclipsing former President Donald Trump’s 234 judicial confirmations. But floor time could be difficult to come by given the legislative demands in the lame duck.

Schumer’s majority on the line: Be honest. Did anyone really think that, one month out from Election Day, we’d be looking at this year’s Senate map and conclude that none of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents can be entirely written off?

That isn’t to say Schumer will remain the majority leader in the next Congress. Right now, it’s a safe bet that Republicans will win the Senate next month. After all, they really only need to flip one seat because West Virginia is already going to turn red thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) retirement. Plus, there’s an argument to be made that Democrats are only wasting money in Texas and Florida. (As of now, they’re only in for just short of $3 million in Texas, as we reported Thursday evening).

But the narrative has changed. Republicans’ fundraising struggles are real, and Democratic candidates continue to rake in millions of dollars. While Montana looks to be trending away from Democrats, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is holding firm and continues to raise boatloads of cash.

So the fact that it’s not all doom and gloom a month out from the election is a positive development for Democrats. Whether that translates to holding onto the Senate majority is an entirely different question. But Democrats could stem their losses to prevent Republicans from having a wider — and more workable — majority.

A 51-49 GOP majority — regardless of who’s in the White House — isn’t the worst possible result for Democrats, especially considering Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) will still be around as swing votes. A 52- or 53-seat Republican majority, however, makes it harder for Democrats to have influence.

On the home front: Schumer played a prominent role in the internal Democratic deliberations that ultimately saw Biden end his reelection bid.

Schumer’s 30-minute meeting with Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Del., was a pivotal moment. His pitch had more sway with Biden not only because they’d served together, but because of the affection Biden has for the Senate and this particular crop of Democratic senators.

Schumer seems to have delivered the message that Biden had lost his home turf — his cherished Senate. For Biden, that had an impact.

Mitch McConnell

The Kentucky Republican is nearing the end of his record-breaking tenure as Senate GOP leader.

The Republican Conference has changed dramatically in recent years as retirements of McConnell-aligned senators gave way to younger members who are more Trump-like. As a result, McConnell’s influence within the conference has waned.

But let’s not lose sight of what McConnell has been able to accomplish in the seven months since announcing he wouldn’t seek another term as GOP leader.

As we’ve noted previously, McConnell was instrumental in getting the foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan across the finish line. He successfully beat back a small but powerful group of Trump-aligned Republicans who tried to kill the measure.

And McConnell isn’t going quietly. He’s still taking swings at the “America First” worldview, part of his broader effort to push back on what he sees as a growing isolationist streak in his party.

McConnell is also continuing to make the case against the dramatic changes to the leadership structure that some of the candidates vying to succeed him have embraced. He’s publicly slammed the notion of term limits, and we’ve scooped that McConnell has been laying out his case for maintaining leadership power during closed-door GOP meetings.

— Andrew Desiderio

Don’t miss tomorrow’s first episode of The Readback podcast! Our Max Cohen will take listeners behind the scenes with our reporters and others on Capitol Hill, getting the scoop on the top stories of the week. Catch The Readback podcast in your Daily Punch feed tomorrow morning.

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THE SENATE

Hawley’s evolution from firebrand to… dealmaker?

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) came into the Senate six years ago at age 39 as an acolyte of then-President Donald Trump, part of a new crop of Republicans who wanted to shake up the stuffy and more traditional Senate GOP Conference.

At first, Democrats wanted to stay far away. After Hawley defeated Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Democrats grouped him in with the “hell no” caucus — conservatives who vote against everything and want to grind the federal government to a halt.

That feeling was exacerbated after Jan. 6. Hawley’s fist pump outside the Capitol to pro-Trump protesters and his efforts to lead objections to President Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory drew further enmity from Democrats.

The tone was set early on. Hawley introduced himself to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) after being sworn in and got this response: “Oh, yeah, I know who you are. Claire McCaskill was my best friend in the Senate.” Ouch.

Fast-forward four years, and Hawley is cruising to a second term having cultivated some unlikely allies in a bid to push his own party in a new direction. While still a conservative stalwart, Hawley has attracted cross-aisle counterparts — including some of the most liberal senators — on issues that cut against traditional GOP orthodoxy.

“I’ve learned more about the institution and learned more about how to get things done,” Hawley told us, reflecting specifically on his push for more Covid-era stimulus checks with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “As a really young junior senator at the time, I realized this is the ticket here … That showed me there’s a path here.”

Strange bedfellows: As a result, Democrats are comfortable working with Hawley in ways they wouldn’t have been a few years ago. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) is partnering with Hawley on a more heavy-handed approach to regulating artificial intelligence, for example. Blumenthal told us he views Hawley as a reliable partner.

“He can be pretty insightful on issues like corporate power and abuse, the dangers of AI and advanced technology,” Blumenthal said of Hawley. “The areas of our agreement are sometimes surprising, but they’re basically non-ideological.”

Democratic senators we spoke with now see Hawley as something of a dealmaker — though in a nontraditional sense, of course. After all, Hawley wasn’t out there voting for the bipartisan deals struck during the last Congress.

Consider this, though. Hawley partnered with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) to force a Senate vote earlier this year on re-upping a since-expired compensation program for victims of nuclear radiation. He even got Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to vote for it after placing holds on two former McConnell staffers’ unrelated nominations.

Populism personified: Hawley’s economic views sometimes make him sound like a progressive on everything from crackdowns on corporate power to support for labor unions. He’s even marched in union picket lines.

In April, Hawley voted with Democrats to maintain a Biden administration NLRB rule that the rest of his party said amounted to overly burdensome red tape for employers.

Hawley has called for rolling back Citizens United, too, drawing a rebuke from McConnell during a closed-door GOP lunch. Hawley is pretty much the only Republican who backs getting rid of corporate cash in politics.

Conservatives have a “natural instinct” to be a firewall against government action, Hawley said, but added: “Are you just here to say no? Or are you here to do something?”

“I’m forthrightly trying to push my own party toward being more pro-labor, more pro-worker in general,” Hawley said. “And part of my strategy is finding willing partners across the aisle… You learn things in the process that I think makes me better at my job.”

— Andrew Desiderio

CAMPAIGN SAFETY

Lawmakers beef up personal security over safety fears

House lawmakers are shoring up their security this campaign season amid a rise in threats and heightened safety concerns heading into the election.

Democrats and Republicans said they’ve been working with local law enforcement to make sure they’re staying safe as they campaign. Many also noted increased concerns after the two recent assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump. And, of, course there’s a long history of violence targeting lawmakers directly.

We spoke with over a dozen members about their concerns about safety and security. Some declined to comment publicly due to the sensitive nature of the topic, but they all expressed the need to enhance protection measures.

An uptick in threats: The U.S. Capitol Police, which only releases annual data, noted that there were more than 8,000 threat reports in 2023. USCP tracks verbal or written threats targeted toward members, Hill staff and the Capitol complex.

Sources within USCP told us that they’re on track to exceed last year’s figure as threats typically heighten during election years and amid high-profile news events.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us while he tries to “tune out” threats, he recalled his wife getting a threat last fall related to his opposition to Rep. Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) speaker bid.

And Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) said she’s been the victim of heavy political protest over her stance on Israel.

“I’ve had security come to my home because of the pro-Palestinian protesters,” Beatty told us. “My staff in the district is very sensitive to making sure that I have appropriate security for large events when things happen. We’re cautious like all the members are.”

A critical response: Lawmakers can use both their office funds – known as the Members’ Representational Allowance – and campaign dollars to hire security.

Last month, the Federal Election Commission expanded the use of federal campaign funds to allow political candidates, family members and staff to pay for additional physical and cybersecurity protections.

The House Administration Committee has also been giving presentations to members about the options and resources available for their safety.

And the panel is in the early stages of working with the Capitol Police to figure out the best ways to help Special Assistant US attorneys better prosecute threats against members.

Both Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) and Ranking Member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) said they’re in frequent contact with Capitol Police about member safety.

“Safety remains a top priority for me,” Steil told us. “I am in constant communication with both members and U.S. Capitol Police on how we can enhance security for offices in D.C. and personal districts.”

The committee’s Modernization Subcommittee has also taken steps to enhance the House switchboard to better help the Sergeant At Arms track threatening calls.

Separately, House Democrats also launched a task force to investigate member security back in December 2023.

For high-profile members like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), threats are a constant worry whenever they’re away from the Capitol.

Ocasio-Cortez was targeted at a New York movie theater earlier this year by pro-Palestinian activists. AOC said more needs to be done to prevent hostile and sometimes dangerous confrontations with protesters.

“A lot remains to be desired in terms of district-level security,” Ocasio-Cortez told us. “It’s something that certainly should be worked on. It’s absolutely an issue.”

– Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

News: Cuban, Hoffman spearhead Business Leaders for Harris group

First in Punchbowl News: Mark Cuban, Reid Hoffman, Reed Hastings and other prominent entrepreneurs are launching “Business Leaders for Harris” in a bid to support Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.

The group’s rollout includes first-person testimonials from the chief executives and a podcast featuring Cuban and Hastings, in addition to endorsement videos from small business owners who previously supported former President Donald Trump.

Some standout quotes from the business leaders:

— Cuban said he’s backing Harris because she will help more Americans reach the American dream.

— Ken Chenault, former American Express CEO, praised Harris’ “opportunity economy” vision and said a Trump presidency would bring “chaos and fear.”

— Hastings, executive chair of Netflix, said he knows Harris from her time in California and thinks she will be “a great president for business.”

— Kyle Sweetser, a two-time Trump voter and general contractor from Alabama, said he’s voting for Harris because Trump’s tariffs will increase the costs of key goods.

The outreach to the traditionally right-leaning business community comes as the Harris campaign seeks to win over independent and conservative voters suspicious of Trump.

— Max Cohen

…AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has a new 60-second spot airing nationwide, featuring Trump administration alumni saying former President Donald Trump is not fit for office.

The Money Game: Kristin Lyerly, the Democrat running in the open seat in Wisconsin’s 8th District, raised $1.1 million in Q3. Lyerly is facing Republican Tony Wied in the battle to replace former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.).

Despite Lyerly’s impressive haul, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the seat as “Solid Republican.”

— Max Cohen

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