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THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning, and welcome to November.
Congress’ window to approve more aid for Ukraine is quickly closing. And no one on Capitol Hill may feel this moment more acutely than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The next few weeks will test not only McConnell’s fraying relationship with his right flank but also his willingness to partner with President Joe Biden and Senate Democrats to muscle a huge Ukraine aid package through the chamber.
We can’t emphasize this enough — support for Ukraine among Republicans is eroding quickly. Senate Republicans tell us they believe the Nov. 17 government funding deadline could be their last chance to pass a significant aid package for the war-torn country.
“We’ve got three weeks to get this done,” one GOP senator said. “If we don’t, we’re telling Russia they can go have Ukraine.”
What had once been a strong pro-Ukraine majority of the Senate GOP Conference is now much more fragile. And even then, Senate Republicans who back Ukraine are increasingly focused on military aid rather than economic or humanitarian funding, arguing European nations should step up on the latter.
McConnell has remained consistently pro-Ukraine throughout the conflict, even hosting the Ukrainian ambassador at the University of Louisville’s McConnell Center this week.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said flatly that McConnell’s position is “out of touch” with the party’s base. Public polling shows that support for aiding Ukraine is waning, especially among Republicans. Ukraine opponents inside the Republican Party argue the United States has to fix its border issues first before getting involved in foreign wars, and this view is winning out.
But Ukraine, in particular, is a legacy-defining issue for the 81-year-old McConnell. He sees the fight in Ukraine tied to Taiwan, Israel and other U.S. national security imperatives.
McConnell is also doubling down on his view that Congress must address more than just Israel in a national-security spending package, as new Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders have proposed. The White House is opposed to the House Republican plan.
On Tuesday, McConnell acknowledged he’s on the same page as Biden and congressional Democrats “conceptually.” But McConnell also said that his push for more Ukraine funding is looking increasingly contingent on a bipartisan breakthrough on the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
“Democrats will have to accept a really serious U.S.-Mexico border protection bill in order to get our people on board for a comprehensive approach,” McConnell said.
The White House has proposed billions of dollars in new border security funding, but Republicans have dismissed that approach as simply a continuation of what they term the administration’s failed policies. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, for his part, has said immigration policy changes are a non-starter in any supplemental package.
That’s where a new GOP effort comes in. Republicans, including the most vocal Ukraine backers, tell us they want to make it clear in their public messaging that the Ukraine portion won’t get approved without a side-by-side border-security effort. In many ways, that’s the only way they’ll be able to justify a massive Ukraine aid boost to their constituents.
“Eventually, you’ve got to have the border fight,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told us. “I’m not going to support any of this stuff until I know what’s going to happen with our own border.”
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) is leading a group of Republicans — and some Democrats, though he won’t name names — who are trying to write a border-related bill that could conceivably clear the 60-vote Senate threshold. Lankford told us he’s not aiming to make this a conservative wish list.
“We’re not trying to over-ask. We’re trying to ask ‘What are the things that DHS is also asking for, what are the things that need to be done to actually stop the acceleration of people coming across the border?’” Lankford said, naming asylum laws as one area to address.
“Clearly, there’s a major problem and the administration knows it and feels it and so do we,” Lankford added. The Oklahoma Republican hopes to have his proposal put together as soon as possible.
New: Schumer teed up votes on three more high-level military promotions that Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) has been blocking.
It came after Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) forced Schumer’s hand with a cloture petition, which allows any senator who gets enough signatures to force a vote on a nomination.
Tuesday night, Schumer filed cloture on the two remaining Joint Chiefs vacancies — the chief of naval operations and the Air Force chief of staff. Also scheduled is a vote on the No. 2 Marine Corps commandant.
The latter took on new urgency this week after Gen. Eric Smith, the Marine Corps commandant, was hospitalized due to an apparent heart attack.
Sullivan told us that he’ll continue using this tactic to force votes, but he emphasized the chamber needs to find a more holistic solution. Next on his list are the NORAD/NORTHCOM chief, as well as commanders for the 5th Fleet and 7th Fleet.
We scooped Tuesday that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is prepping a separate effort to force votes on the NORAD/NORTHCOM commander and the deputy CENTCOM commander.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
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THE SPEAKER
Johnson fills senior-staff ranks with leadership newbies
Speaker Mike Johnson has loaded up his senior staff with a crew of leadership neophytes as he gears up to run the House.
Give Johnson credit here. Within a week of winning the speakership, the Louisiana Republican has filled every key position on his leadership team. But unlike previous speakers who sought seasoned hands in such roles, Johnson has mostly eschewed experience in favor of political allies and fellow conservative travelers.
This is an incredibly busy time for Congress. Government funding runs out in 16 days. And Johnson is trying to pass an Israel aid bill today that’s coupled with $14 billion in cuts to the IRS — something that the GOP leadership is split on and is nervous about passing.
This is the team Johnson’s going to battle with.
Take Johnson’s new top communications hand, Raj Shah. Shah is a former Trump White House deputy press secretary who also worked at Fox Corporation and the RNC — all entities that sought to and succeeded in tightly controlling their message.
Unlike previous communications directors for speakers such as Nancy Pelosi, John Boehner, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, Shah has never worked on Capitol Hill, where 535 members and their countless aides feed a hungry press corps news and gossip. The speaker’s communications director typically relies on years-long relationships with Hill reporters to help limit the damage when the majority inevitably fails on something.
Shah will also be counted on to court right-wing media, some of whom view him with heightened suspicion. In addition, he will be working for a speaker whose history has been left largely unvetted by the news media. Reporters in Washington and across the country are only beginning to dig into Johnson and his past.
Johnson’s new policy director is Dan Ziegler, the former executive director for the Republican Study Committee. The RSC serves as a think tank for some of the most conservative members of the House.
Since leaving the Hill, Ziegler has been paid to influence members of Congress on behalf of giant corporations. Ziegler has been lobbying for Williams and Jensen, where he has sought to influence policy on behalf of Amgen, the biotechnology company; Bloom Energy; Elevance Health; Eli Lilly, the pharmaceutical giant; Ford Motor Company; Merck; the News Media Alliance; Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic; Pfizer; PHRMA; Sanofi; the Vanguard Group; and Visa.
Ziegler’s lobbying profile is still online and touts his connection to Johnson — precisely the kind of thing the right in the House rails on.
“This includes two years working for current Speaker Mike Johnson during his tenure as the RSC Chairman during the 116th Congress,” the profile reads.
Johnson’s office didn’t have an immediate comment on whether Ziegler will recuse himself from involvement in energy, health care or financial services policy.
Ziegler donated $1,000 to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign for president. Johnson, however, hasn’t endorsed former President Donald Trump’s campaign for the White House.
The Trump campaign didn’t have immediate comment on Ziegler’s appointment.
The appointment of Ziegler also robs Johnson of his best downtown ally. But since he was elected as speaker, a broad swath of lobbyists has been laying claim to this title.
Rounding out Johnson’s senior staff is Hayden Haynes, Johnson’s personal office chief of staff; Chris Bien, a McCarthy staffer who will run the floor; and Courtney Butcher, a former aide to the House Republican Conference will run the member services shop.
— Jake Sherman
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THE HOUSE FLOOR
The latest on expulsion and censure
The House is back tonight and will start working its way through the three privileged resolutions filed last week.
You’ll remember: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) wants to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.); Democrats want to censure MTG; and Rep. George Santos’ (R-N.Y.) own New York Republican delegation wants to expel him from Congress.
First and most importantly, we expect both sides to have some attendance issues today — maybe significant issues — that will affect these votes.
Democrats are going to try to table the Tlaib resolution when it comes up for a vote. We talked to senior House Democratic sources who say they expect all their members to vote in favor of tabling it, which effectively kills the resolution. The question is whether enough Republicans join with them to do so? Keep an eye on the Michigan delegation, which opposes Tlaib’s censure.
Yes, there’s a lot of tension and infighting within the Democratic Caucus over the Israel-Hamas war. And Tlaib angered several of her colleagues by leaving up a tweet that accused Israel of bombing a hospital in Gaza despite intelligence proving otherwise.
But House Democratic leaders expect they won’t have problems getting their rank-and-file to vote together because of who authored the resolution — MTG — and the outlandish claims within it, including accusing Tlaib of inciting an insurrection.
The Tlaib resolution “is an extreme, disingenuous and clearly partisan ploy,” Democrats said in a whip notice sent around Tuesday.
The MTG censure: Democrats, led by Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), filed a motion to censure MTG in retaliation for her efforts against Tlaib. Balint delivered a fiery speech on the House floor last week explaining why the far-right firebrand should be censured.
We expect Republicans to firmly oppose this resolution. Again, this isn’t because all House Republicans love MTG. But GOP leaders and members will defend one of their own against Democrats.
Now about Santos: The House will also have to consider the resolution to expel Santos that several New York Republicans filed last week.
The cynical take: Democrats say vulnerable New York Republicans are doing this now to give themselves political cover after opposing Democrats’ effort to boot Santos earlier this year. Democrats also point to Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who is leading the expulsion effort while also fundraising off of it.
Still, all 212 Democrats are expected to back the measure. Even institutionalists who would typically vote against something like this because Santos hasn’t been convicted of anything are in favor.
But, of course, any expulsion effort needs two-thirds support in the House. That means at least 77 Republicans would have to join with Democrats if all members are present and voting. The key will be how many lawmakers show up. Because Santos can be booted with two-thirds present and voting, that number is sure to be lower this week.
Speaker Mike Johnson isn’t in favor of expelling Santos, saying the freshman lawmaker deserves due process. Santos, who is facing a 23-count federal criminal indictment on bribery, wire fraud and identity theft charges, won’t go on trial until September 2024. But Republicans could change their tune if the House Ethics Committee finishes its probe first.
In a new twist, the Ethics Committee released a very unusual statement Monday night saying it would have an update on the probe “on or before November 17.” This was clearly an attempt by the secretive panel to buy more time for its probe before the House takes any action against Santos.
Ethics’ statement provided some insight into the scale of its investigation of Santos. Remember, Ethics may have subpoena power but it doesn’t have the investigative infrastructure on the scale of a law-enforcement agency.
The special investigative subcommittee assigned to the Santos case “has contacted approximately 40 witnesses, reviewed more than 170,000 pages of documents, and authorized 37 subpoenas. The Committee’s nonpartisan staff and the ISC Members have put countless hours into this investigation, which has been a priority for the investigative team and involved a significant amount of the Committee’s resources.”
— Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
What the Senate wants to hear from Powell today
The Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate move at 2 p.m. today. There’s not too much suspense about the outcome at this point, but Washington has other questions on its mind.
A broad majority of economists expect the Federal Open Market Committee will vote to hold rates steady. The Fed last hiked interest rates by 25 basis points in July, bringing the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5%.
We expect inflation will continue to be a dominant topic of today’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Price increases on an annual basis continue to slow, though inflation remains above the Fed’s target of 2%.
“The everyday consumer is still living paycheck-to-paycheck,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said. “They’re still suffering with high gas prices and high food prices. The things that they consume regularly are the things that are driving their budgets to a place where they just can’t make ends meet.”
But more than any Fed presser in months, global turmoil is looming large over the U.S. central bank. Regional wars, whether in Ukraine or in the Middle East, don’t make the Federal Reserve’s price stability mandate any easier to achieve.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said she hoped Powell would weigh in on the current strength of the U.S. economy and “whether commodity price increases that we may see as a result of the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will not trigger the Fed to increase interest rates once again.”
“Higher interest rates will not produce more oil,” Warren said, adding that she was also concerned about the price of grain.
We’ll also probably hear about bond markets today, with sky-high yields that have been delivering heartburn to Washington and Wall Street alike in recent weeks. Those yields are making credit more expensive, particularly in housing.
“It looks to me like the bond markets are doing [Powell’s] work for him,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. “The bond market could tank us all, really tank the economy. It’s the market, and the markets do what markets do.”
— Brendan Pedersen
THE CAMPAIGN
Fat Joe, the popular rapper, stars in a new ad by Power to the Patients criticizing hospitals and insurance companies. The spot is running here in D.C.
— Jake Sherman
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MOMENTS
All times Eastern
9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
11:40 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House en route to Andrews, where he’ll fly to Minneapolis. Deputy Press Secretary Emilie Simons will gaggle aboard Air Force One.
2:35 p.m.: Biden will depart Minneapolis en route to Northfield, Minnesota, arriving there at 2:50 p.m.
3:50 p.m.: Biden will tour a family farm in Northfield and then he will deliver remarks about “how Bidenomics and his Investing in America agenda are ensuring rural Americans do not have to leave their hometowns to find opportunity.”
5:15 p.m.: Biden will depart Northfield arriving back in Minneapolis at 5:30 p.m.
7:15 p.m.: Biden will participate in a campaign reception.
8:30 p.m.: Biden will depart Minneapolis for Andrews.
11:05 p.m.: Biden will arrive at the White House.
CLIP FILE
Fort Worth Report
→ | “Powerful Granger not running again for Congress, sources say,” by Jacob Sanchez, Miranda Suarez and Maria Recio |
NYT
→ | “Tammy Murphy, N.J. Governor’s Wife, Prepares to Run for Menendez’s Seat,” by Tracey Tully |
→ | “Can Global Leaders Get a Handle on A.I.? U.K. Summit Makes a Start,” by Megan Specia and Adam Satariano in London |
WaPo
→ | “Transformed Trump family will take center stage in New York courtroom,” by Jonathan O’Connell, Josh Dawsey, Shayna Jacobs and Isaac Arnsdorf |
Bloomberg
→ | “US and Israel Weigh Peacekeepers for the Gaza Strip After Hamas,” by Peter Martin and Jennifer Jacobs |
WSJ
→ | “U.S. All but Stopped Spying on Hamas in Years After 9/11,” by Warren P. Strobel |
AP
→ | “Gaza’s phone and internet connections are cut off again, as Israeli troops battle Hamas militants,” by Najib Jobain in Rafah, Gaza Strip and Samy Magdy in Cairo |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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