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How far can Trump push Gaetz — and Senate Republicans?

With election over, House Democrats battle over top committee posts

The Vault: BRT launches ad blitz on 2025 tax debate

Equality Caucus eyes ways to protect LGBTQ members

THE TOP

How far can Trump push Gaetz — and Senate Republicans?

Happy Thursday morning.

Is President-elect Donald Trump leaving his closest Senate allies out to dry?

Some of them fear that’s exactly what’s happening with former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) floundering nomination to serve as attorney general.

We wrote in Wednesday’s PM edition that a strategic divide has emerged between Trump’s transition team and his biggest Senate boosters. Sources familiar with the process say the Trump team has yet to articulate a clear plan for winning the confirmation fight, as even some public Gaetz supporters in the Senate tell us there’s no path to 50 votes.

That dynamic has GOP senators wondering what the Gaetz endgame looks like. Will Gaetz get a confirmation hearing? Will it be a circus? And will Trump insist that the nomination move forward even if enough Republicans come out against Gaetz to guarantee his defeat?

Inside Gaetz’s first day: Alongside Vice President-elect JD Vance, Gaetz met with members of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, in addition to incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune — the man ultimately responsible for getting Trump’s nominees through the confirmation process.

Thune told us the meeting “went well,” adding that Gaetz is “doing what he should be doing” by sitting down with senators. A Trump transition official said Gaetz has been “nonstop on the phones with [senators] and is committed to working with them throughout this process.”

At the same time, the House Ethics Committee was deadlocked on Wednesday over whether to publicly release the report on its investigation into Gaetz’s alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. That led Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) to introduce a privileged resolution to force a House vote mandating the release of the report.

With members leaving today, Casten’s resolution won’t get a vote until after the Thanksgiving recess. The Ethics Committee is scheduled to meet again on Dec. 5. In the meantime, the drip-drip of damaging information continues.

This is interesting: We asked Thune if he thinks it’s possible for Gaetz to get 50 votes needed for confirmation. Thune’s response:

Other Republican senators cautioned against relying too much on statements from colleagues that they won’t vote for Gaetz.

“The sight of the gallows concentrates the mind,” added Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who met with Gaetz on Wednesday. “I’ve listened to a lot of people talk, and grunt, and rant, and rave, and give speeches, and go right down there and vote differently.”

But a Gaetz confirmation vote is likely two months away — if it happens — an eternity in a fast-moving situation like this. GOP senators who support Gaetz are privately wondering whether they’ll end up wasting precious time and political capital on a toxic candidate who many now believe is unconfirmable.

With 53 Republicans in the chamber come January, Gaetz can’t afford to lose more than three votes. Far more than that number have indicated privately that they oppose Gaetz. Some of Gaetz’s supporters in the chamber told us they think most of those holdouts aren’t persuadable.

Gaetz opponents even have quietly discussed reaching out to Trump or his inner circle and asking for the nomination to be withdrawn. It hasn’t happened yet, but there are conversations about this option occurring within Republican ranks.

Gaming it out: The universe of GOP senators who’d be willing to take the blame publicly for tanking Gaetz’s nomination is small.

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), whose brand of maverick is increasingly rare in the Senate, are the obvious possibilities. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could also be in that group. McConnell won’t be in leadership anymore and will be free from the accompanying political pressures.

After that come some allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who dislike Gaetz over his successful efforts to oust the California Republican from the speakership.

Then there are senators genuinely disturbed by the allegations against Gaetz. While Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing — and the Justice Department didn’t charge him despite a lengthy criminal investigation — there are still major concerns over his judgment, temperament and ability to lead a department with more than 115,000 employees.

Stefanik off to the races: One nomination that’s not in trouble is that of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), tapped by Trump to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik has a second round of key meetings scheduled today with McConnell and Collins, along with Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.), according to a source familiar with the plans.

And the New York Republican is already picking up bipartisan support, with Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) saying he “looks forward” to voting to confirm Stefanik.

The expectation from Trump’s transition team is that Stefanik and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who was nominated to lead the State Department, will move quickly through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee early next year.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona

November Events: There’s still time to RSVP and join us today at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.). He’ll sit down with Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman to discuss news of the day and the future of defense and industrial policy.

COMMITTEE WATCH

With election over, House Democrats battle over top committee posts

News: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is privately mulling a bid to become the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, the latest example of generational turnover that has begun in the post-election period.

We scooped in the Wednesday AM edition that Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) is looking to unseat Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) as the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Our friend Sarah Ferris at CNN broke the news that Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) will challenge David Scott (D-Ga.) for the ranking member post on the Agriculture Committee, although other contenders may jump into that contest. And there may be similar challenges for other panels, Democratic lawmakers and aides added.

House Democrats are just starting to grapple with their defeat on Election Day and what it might mean for them in a Donald Trump-dominated Washington. The Judiciary Committee — chaired by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a top Trump ally — will be a key battleground between the two parties. Immigration, trade, abortion, constitutional disputes and “Subversive activities affecting the internal security of the United States” all come under the purview of the Judiciary Committee.

Raskin would have to supplant Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), currently ranking member of the Judiciary Committee. The 61-year-old Raskin — a Harvard-trained constitutional law professor — couldn’t be reached for comment.

Yet a number of Democratic lawmakers and aides said Raskin is considering it. And the Democratic leadership looks ready to let the caucus work its will on this and the other committee disputes.

The 77-year-old Nadler, who won a 2017 fight to become the top Democrat on the Judiciary panel, told us on Wednesday he’s unaware of any potential challenges to his position.

In a letter sent to colleagues Wednesday evening, Nadler touted that he has fought against Trump his entire career. The New York Democrat pledged to “stand as a bulwark against the MAGA Majority’s dangerous agenda.”

Yet a number of members have privately expressed concern over whether Nadler is up to the challenges presented by Trump’s return. They also note that former Speaker Nancy Pelosi chose now Sen.-elect Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) to oversee the first impeachment inquiry against Trump in 2019, although Nadler later served as a House manager during the Senate trial.

Raskin, the ranking member on the Oversight Committee, is on leave from the Judiciary panel. If Raskin were to challenge Nadler and succeed, that would leave an opening atop Oversight. Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) were all floated to us as possible successors. AOC, for her part, dismissed it as “just speculation” and didn’t want to discuss the idea.

House Democrats still have to organize their Steering and Policy Committee, which won’t take place until December, after Congress returns from the Thanksgiving break.

As far as the Natural Resources panel, we pressed Grijalva on the challenge from Huffman. Grijalva’s response: “I don’t want to feed the bullshit.”

But the veteran Arizona Democrat did say he never got a personal heads-up from Huffman about his plans to run. When asked whether he was confident of victory, Grijalva said, “There’s no confidence in this stuff.”

Meanwhile, Huffman said he’s been aggressively lobbying members. “I’m campaigning hard,” Huffman told us.

– John Bresnahan, Max Cohen, Mica Soellner, Melanie Zanona and Jake Sherman

CAPITOL HILL

Equality Caucus eyes ways to protect LGBTQ members

As Congress prepares to welcome a record number of openly LGBTQ members next year, the Equality Caucus and its campaign arm are considering ways to protect them amid recent attacks from Republicans.

Members of the Equality Caucus’ executive board met this week to discuss ways to message against the recent GOP push to ban transgender women from using women’s bathrooms on Capitol Hill. Members also discussed how to boost more LGBTQ members into leadership.

And as we first reported, Caucus Chair Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) requested a meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson to challenge the decision to implement a bathroom ban on transgender individuals, which would impact Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-Del.), the first and only transgender member to serve in Congress.

The move, which was driven by a resolution proposed by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), has sparked internal conversations about what the environment on Capitol Hill looks like for LGBTQ members and staff.

“Right now, I think it’s really crappy,” Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) told us. “[Mace], MTG and their apologists, including the speaker, are creating a hostile work environment.”

Increasing the ranks: The Equality PAC, which heavily boosted LGBTQ candidates and incumbents this cycle, has helped add more LGBTQ members to congressional ranks, including Reps.-elect Julie Johnson (D-Texas) and Emily Randall (D-Wash.), along with McBride.

The campaign arm hosted a reception on Tuesday to celebrate the three new LGBTQ members. McBride received a standing ovation from dozens of members of the Democratic caucus, including leadership.

McBride told us her plan in Congress is to focus on kitchen table issues affecting Delaware, though McBride understands the representation she will bring to Capitol Hill. McBride also said she’d comply with Johnson’s bathroom policy and didn’t want to get bogged down by GOP distractions.

“I ran to serve the state that I love,” McBride told us. “While I may be a first, I am not the last” transgender member.

The campaign arm has also aggressively lobbied to get LGBTQ members into leadership positions. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) was elected as the caucus leadership representative this week.

Johnson, who is the first openly gay member to represent Texas and the South, said her experience serving in the Republican-dominated environment in the Lone Star State prepared her for working with the GOP majority on Capitol Hill.

“I’ve been a lesbian Democrat functioning in that environment for three terms now,” Johnson told us. “It takes a lot of effort to build trust and relationships with the other side and find issues you can work on together. That’s all I’ve known how to do.”

Randall said she’s excited to add more LGBTQ women, in particular, to the halls of Congress. We previously wrote about the record number of women running for office this past cycle.

“We’ve doubled the number of LGBTQ women in Congress,” Randall told us. “It matters not just to be firsts, but also to make sure our experiences are at the table.”

– Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

News: Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), in addition to Sen.-elect Jim Banks (R-Ind.), will serve as NRSC vice chairs next cycle, incoming Chair Tim Scott announced. This is the first time in a number of cycles that the NRSC has appointed vice chairs.

— Max Cohen

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