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November 28, 2022
Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning. Welcome back from the Thanksgiving break. The Senate returns today, the House will be back Tuesday evening. President Joe Biden arrived back in Washington from Nantucket on Sunday evening.
Both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are ready to resume a critical lame-duck session. The top priority is funding the federal government past Dec. 16 – we’ve got some news there – plus passing the annual defense authorization package, same-sex marriage and reforming the Electoral College, among other topics. The Georgia Senate runoff is heading toward a high-stakes finish, while House Democrats will hold a historic passing of the torch from Nancy Pelosi to Hakeem Jeffries.
Let’s start with government funding.
The current continuing resolution keeping federal agencies open expires on Dec. 16. We can report that Democratic leaders are already discussing another one-week extension until Dec. 23. But even if they get a one-week CR, we’re not sure they will be able to cobble together a yearlong omnibus by that date, as we told you the other day. Christmas at the Capitol!
A one-week extension would make sense if the two sides are close to deal on a topline spending target and simply need some more time to work out the details for all 12 bills. But as we noted, there’s no overall agreement on how much to spend (split between defense and nondefense spending) and there are lots of policy riders to work out.
The Senate will need several days to process any omnibus package and overcome GOP objections. There’s also the possibility of last-minute theatrics in the House. Conservative Republicans may not hate anything more than an omnibus funding package.
There’s even been some discussion of a yearlong stopgap measure, but this would be a last resort for all involved.
The Pentagon is already warning congressional leaders in both parties about the negative impact on the U.S. military of a year-long CR (something that’s never happened on defense spending.)
In letters to Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and their GOP counterparts, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said failure to come to a full-year funding agreement – not a CR – would “result in significant harm to our people and our programs and would cause harm to our national security and our competitiveness.”
The White House and Democratic leaders are pushing for a full year of government funding. Biden has requested $37 billion in economic and military aid for Ukraine, as well as tens of billions of dollars in new Covid aid and disaster relief. There are problems on all these fronts.
We see little chance of Republicans agreeing to any new Covid funding. And House Republicans, in particular, are increasingly wary of unfettered Ukraine military assistance, despite the fact that Ukraine is beating Russia on the battlefield. The Pentagon faces increasing calls from GOP lawmakers to account for all the U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine.
Let’s also note that there’s been some discussion of lifting the debt limit during the lame-duck session, including by Pelosi, but we don’t see that happening. There just isn’t time to do a reconciliation package and move it through the House and Senate. Democrats will keep talking about it, however.
The Senate, meanwhile, are planning on finishing up the same-sex marriage bill this week. It’s likely to take until Thursday, barring any time agreement. The House must hold another vote on the revised measure, and then it’s on to Biden’s desk for his signature on the landmark bipartisan legislation.
Once it’s done with same-sex marriage, the Senate will shift back to the annual defense authorization package, a must-pass bill. The bipartisan Electoral College reform package is likely to be added to the NDAA or the omnibus package.
All told, the lame duck is trending longer than many expected. Much of the action seems to be weighted toward mid to late December. Everything in this Congress takes longer than it should.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle
TOMORROW: Join us at 9 a.m. ET tomorrow for our virtual conversation with Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) about the future of democracy, voting rights reforms and much more. You won’t want to miss it – RSVP here!
INSIDE THE HOUSE
Dems to coronate new leaders as McCarthy continues his quest
The House has a bunch of important organizing to do this week for the upcoming 118th Congress.
House Democrats
| → | House Democrats will meet Wednesday at 9 a.m. to vote on their leadership for the next Congress. This is essentially a coronation for the 52-year-old Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York. Jeffries will take over for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, marking the first time in 20 years that the California Democrat isn’t in charge of the caucus. |
Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts will be the minority whip, succeeding current House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Hoyer has been the number two House Democrat for 20 years as well. Rep. Pete Aguilar of California will move up to Democratic Caucus chair. And current House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina will be the assistant Democratic leader, but lower in the hierarchy than his current post. All are running unopposed.
Multiple Democrats told us they expect that the top four spots – Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar and Clyburn – will be agreed to by unanimous consent.
Pelosi and Hoyer are still running the House for the remainder of this session, of course. And they will be here next year too.
Democrats won’t be voting on committee ranking members this week. The Steering and Policy Committee still has to organize after the new leadership team is in place. Right now the Democratic leader has significant influence over Steering by stacking the panel with allies, but there’s a proposed amendment seeking to change that.
Democrats will also vote this week on a slew of proposed changes to their internal rules, some of which could dramatically change the way the caucus operates if adopted.
Here’s the entire list, but let us highlight some interesting ones.
| → | Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) is trying to implement ranked choice voting for the caucus’s leadership races. |
| → | Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) has proposed term limits for committee chairs and ranking members. Democrats have long struggled with committee chairs serving without any limits. The House previously had term limits for committee chairs but Democrats got rid of them in 2009. House Republicans have a six-year limit on committee chairs and ranking members. Foster’s rule puts a six-year limit on chairs with the option of seeking a waiver from the Democratic Caucus to serve longer. |
| → | We’ve written about this, but just as a reminder: Reps. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) want to institute a new rule that would have the speaker or Democratic leader nominate a DCCC chair. The caucus then would have to ratify that selection. |
| → | Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) is looking to add a “Battleground Representative” to the leadership table, an attempt to make the party more responsive to its politically vulnerable lawmakers. We first reported this last week. |
| → | Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) wants to limit the Democratic leader’s influence over the Steering and Policy Committee by reducing the number of members on the panel. Right now, the top Democrat gets to pick 15 members of the panel. Case’s amendment would reduce that to five. Case also wants to eliminate language allowing Democratic deputy whips and committee leaders from getting an automatic spot on the panel. |
| → | Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) is pushing an amendment that would require committee chairs to mark up bills that are co-sponsored by the majority of the Democratic Caucus and the majority of the members of the committee. The proposal also states that the Democratic leadership needs to bring bills to the floor that have the support of two-thirds of the caucus. |
Republicans have considered similar proposals in the past. Leaders in both parties are generally hesitant to give up the power to decide how they manage the caucus.
Overall, there’s nothing terribly earth shattering in any of these amendments. But it’s interesting nonetheless and serves to highlight some of the fault points in the Democratic Caucus at this moment.
Democrats will present their amendments to the Committee on Caucus Procedures this afternoon. That panel, run by Rep. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), will then vote on which proposals to recommend to the full caucus. The caucus will vote on changes when it meets Wednesday.
Of note: Democrats can bring their amendment to their full caucus for a vote Wednesday even if the caucus procedures panel doesn’t recommend it.
House Republicans
On the other side of the aisle, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy still has to find 218 Republicans to vote for him for speaker. There are six or so Republicans who have expressed various levels of opposition to McCarthy’s ascension to the speaker’s chair. The GOP is likely to control 222 seats in the next Congress.
There are a few important moments for House Republicans this week.
| → | On Tuesday, Republicans will have elections for regional steering representatives. Remember, the House Republican Steering Committee chooses chairs and committee assignments. The Steering Committee is largely made up of the leadership and regional representatives. The regional representation map has changed to give more power to the rank and file. |
| → | On Wednesday House Republicans will consider a number of amendments to their internal conference rules. Most notably, the GOP will consider a motion by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) to reinstate the earmark ban. House Republicans rolled back their official opposition to earmarks in 2021 when they were in the minority. The House GOP has shifted on the issue of earmarks in recent years. We’ll see if that openness continues in the heat of a race for speaker. |
— Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan
📅
What we’re watching
| → | Tuesday: The House Rules Committee will meet to discuss possible rules changes for the next Congress. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will meet to consider a number of ambassadorial nominations. |
The Senate Judiciary Committee subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights will hold a hearing on the merger between supermarket giants Kroger and Albertsons. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) will chair the hearing.
| → | Wednesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a closed hearing on electronic warfare. Senate EPW will have a hearing on the bipartisan infrastructure law, focused on the private sector. The Senate Banking Committee will have a hearing on the nomination of Martin Gruenberg to be chair of the FDIC. |
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have a hearing on a number of key ambassadorial nominations, including Lynne Tracy to be U.S. ambassador to Russia.
| → | Thursday: The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the FTX collapse. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam will testify. |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is running ads with Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean language subtitles ahead of the Dec. 6 Senate runoff. The ads have Warnock talking about the importance of voting. Warnock, of course, is facing Republican Herschel Walker. |
– Jake Sherman
JOB NEWS
| → | Justin Goodman, the former top spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, is joining SKDK as executive vice president. Goodman is a longtime veteran of Schumer’s operation. |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
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Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.