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November 3, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning. There are five days until Election Day.
If Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker in January, he’s vowed to devolve much of the decision-making on policy issues to committee chairs. To be sure, this is something that previous House speakers claim they want and then do just the opposite.
Yet the last two Republican speakers – John Boehner and Paul Ryan – served as committee chairs themselves and had strong views on policy. McCarthy’s grounding is in the leadership, where he’s served since 2011. So McCarthy may actually extend some deference to his chairs if elected speaker.
Here’s our reporting, based on numerous conversations, about who will be the committee chairs if Republicans win the House majority. Remember – these are going to be the members drafting bills, leading investigations and controlling the debate on Capitol Hill if Republicans win. We’ll dive into the Senate in the coming days, although the battle for control of that chamber may not be resolved until December.
| → | Agriculture: Pennsylvania Rep. G.T. Thompson. The farm bill will be up for reauthorization next year. The Agriculture Committee also has jurisdiction over food stamps and other social safety net programs. Furthermore, crypto regulation may be taken up by this panel too. |
| → | Appropriations: Texas Rep. Kay Granger. We don’t need to explain how important the Appropriations Committee is. They control the federal purse strings and will be involved in lots of legislating during the next two years. Sidenote: The four top lawmakers on the House and Senate Appropriations panels could be women in the 118th Congress, a first. That is if Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) wins reelection. |
| → | Armed Services: Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers. McCarthy has vowed to dig deep into the disastrous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021. HASC will likely lead that investigation. |
| → | Budget: This gavel is up for grabs. In the mix: Pennsylvania Rep. Lloyd Smucker, Texas Rep. Jodey Arrington and Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter. Smucker and Arrington seem like favorites at this point. Wildcard: If Rep. Jason Smith (Mo.) loses the race for Ways and Means Committee chair, he could end up running the Budget panel. |
| → | Education and Labor: North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx has been seeking a waiver to circumvent term limit rules. But McCarthy, under pressure from other members, has signaled he’s not interested in granting such waivers. If McCarthy sticks with this position, expect this gavel to go to Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg. Dark horse: If Indiana Rep. Jim Banks loses the whip race, he could end up as Education and Labor chair. Worth noting: Republicans have put education policy at the center of much of their campaign-season rhetoric, so this committee will be important. |
| → | Energy and Commerce: Washington State Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers. As the late Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) said, if it moves its energy. If it doesn’t, it’s commerce. That’s a broad mandate and an apt description for a committee that will be at the center of Big Tech hearings, investigating the federal government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the deadly fentanyl epidemic, and much more. |
| → | Ethics: We expect McCarthy to stick with Mississippi Rep. Mike Guest here. Guest was tapped as the top Republican on the panel after the late Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) was killed in a tragic car crash in August. This is the job no member wants but it can be a stepping stone to a better one down the road. |
| → | Financial Services: North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry. McHenry, a close ally of McCarthy’s, will be leading the GOP policy on financial institutions and crypto regulation. Also expect McHenry to take a lead role in trying to convince House Republicans not to hold the debt limit hostage next fall. |
| → | Foreign Affairs: Texas Rep. Mike McCaul. Foreign Affairs will also be involved in probing the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. |
| → | Homeland Security: There’s another contested chairmanship here. Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw is making a play for the gavel as is Tennessee Rep. Mark Green. Crenshaw is playing up the angle that the Lone Star State should have the top slot on the panel. Guest was also vying for this slot, but he has decided to go for an Appropriations seat instead. That’s a key priority for the Mississippi delegation. |
| → | House Administration: Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Stiel seems to be the top candidate for the gavel on the committee that controls internal House policies. This is a McCarthy appointment, not ratified by the GOP steering committee. |
| → | Judiciary: Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan is easily the most influential Republican figure outside of the leadership. Jordan will have all sorts of issues under his jurisdiction, including the FBI, DOJ and possibly a presidential impeachment. |
| → | Natural Resources: Arkansas Rep. Bruce Westerman. This panel will see action on oil drilling and the Green New Deal. |
| → | Oversight: Kentucky Rep. Jim Comer. Oversight is always a critical committee when the House is controlled by a different party than the president. The entire federal government comes under Oversight’s purview. Expect some turf wars with other committees, though. |
| → | Rules: Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole will run the committee that prepares legislation for the House floor. |
| → | Science, Space and Technology: Oklahoma Rep. Frank Lucas. Lucas chaired Agriculture, so he has experience with a gavel. |
| → | Small Business: Texas Rep. Roger Williams, a former car dealer from the Austin area, is definitely interested. We heard last night that Minnesota Rep. Pete Stauber is also taking lawmakers’ temperature about a run. |
| → | Transportation and Infrastructure: Missouri Rep. Sam Graves will get it. Graves chaired the Small Business Committee in the past. |
| → | Veterans Affairs: Illinois Rep. Mike Bost. |
| → | Ways and Means: We’ve covered this contest for months between Reps. Vern Buchanan (Fla.), Jason Smith (Mo.) and Adrian Smith (Neb.). We give a bit of an edge to Jason Smith right now, but as one aide put it, this is a jump ball. |
As we scooped last night, Buchanan is hosting a fundraiser Saturday night in Longboat Key, Fla., with McCarthy and former Speaker Newt Gingrich.
| → | Intelligence: Ohio Rep. Mike Turner. |
Of interest: Former Speaker Paul Ryan was the debut guest on the “Control” podcast, hosted by Brendan Buck, a former Ryan top aide, and Annalyse Keller, who worked for former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.).
| → | On McCarthy: |
| → | On a Republican majority’s challenge: |
– Jake Sherman
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WHITE HOUSE WORD
Biden’s split screen: Democracy and Democrats
President Joe Biden has two messages in the closing days of the 2022 campaign.
First, voters should keep Democrats in power after an historic two years during which a Democratic-controlled White House and Congress passed landmark infrastructure, gun control, social and economic rescue packages.
But Biden also delivered a darker message last night in a speech at Union Station – Republican “election deniers” could dismantle the democratic systems that have kept America going for the last 240-plus years.
It’s a fascinating split screen, unlike anything anyone’s ever seen. Biden is trying to help his party win this election even as a huge swath of the GOP is still denying that he won the last one.
And it comes just days after a horrific attack at the home of Speaker Nancy Pelosi that carried frightening overtones of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Paul Pelosi remains hospitalized after being struck in the head with a hammer by an assailant reportedly motivated by right-wing conspiracy theories.
It’s not clear whether Biden’s warnings are resonating with the American public. Polls show that democracy – broadly defined – is a concern for voters, but it’s not the top issue as they face soaring prices for food, gas and housing, rising crime and higher interest rates.
Dozens of House and Senate races across the country are polling within a point or two heading into the final weekend of the cycle. Senate contests in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona are up in the air. These races will decide who controls the currently 50-50 Senate, an enormous issue that directly impacts the direction of Biden’s presidency. On the House side, hardline conservative Republicans are warning they may impeach Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, as well as investigating the business dealings of the president’s family.
Dozens of lawsuits have already been filed to challenge the process of counting votes, including by GOP lawyers who aided former President Donald Trump’s efforts to send fake electors to Congress on Jan. 6. GOP groups and operatives who pushed the false claim that Trump won “have recruited poll workers by the thousands” in battleground states such as Michigan, according to the AP, even as election workers quit over fears of violence.
Here’s Biden in his speech at Union Station:
More Biden:
It’s the second time that Biden has offered such dire comments about the country’s future in recent months. On Sept. 1, Biden warned in a Philadelphia speech that a “battle for the soul of this nation” was underway, warning that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
INSIDE THE GOP WHIP RACE
Banks tours the Midwest in final week before Election Day
New: Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), one of the candidates for GOP whip if Republicans take the majority, is spending the last week of the 2022 campaign barnstorming the Midwest.
Banks will be in Ohio campaigning for GOP hopefuls J.R. Majewski, Madison Gesiotto Gilbert and Max Miller. He’ll also go to Michigan to campaign for Republicans Paul Junge, Tom Barrett and Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.). Banks will head to Illinois to stump for Republican attorney Esther Joy King, and then wind up the trip in his home state of Indiana to campaign for Jennifer-Ruth Green, a former U.S. Air Force officer.
One of the knocks on Banks is that he doesn’t spend enough time on the road or doesn’t raise enough money. But the campaigning in this last week is meant to beat back on that. Banks also has an allied super PAC now that is putting money into races nationwide.
We scooped on Tuesday night that Banks had nabbed a critical endorsement in his race for majority whip – Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa). Hinson is a popular first-term lawmaker who is seen as being a prime candidate for chief deputy whip should Banks beat NRCC Chair Tom Emmer and Rep. Drew Fergsuon (R-Ga.). Banks is tied to the conservative wing of the House Republican Conference. Hinson’s backing is being seen in GOP circles as a sign that Banks is drawing from more than the right wing of the conference.
Of course, one endorsement doesn’t make an entire race. But Hinson is a good pickup for Banks. And in a leadership race as close as this three-way contest, every single vote counts.
Also: Emmer allies tell us they are anticipating rolling out a big batch of endorsements in the coming days. It would make sense to us if they did this after Election Day.
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY TIKTOK
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THE CAMPAIGN
| → | New: The DCCC is mounting an effort to tie Rhode Island Republican House candidate Allan Fung to “Republican leadership” in the toss-up race for the state’s open 2nd District seat. |
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has said Fung, the former mayor of Cranston, R.I., is “not an extremist.” But the spot opens with images of the Jan. 6 insurrection, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
“This is the Republican Party in Congress now. And Allan Fung will vote with them,” the narrator says. “That Republican leadership wants to cut Social Security and Medicare. They want higher prescription drug prices. And a nationwide ban on abortion – even in Rhode Island.”
| → | Joe O’Dea, a Republican running against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado, put another $1 million into his campaign on Oct. 31, according to a filing made public Wednesday night. He put $500,000 in on Oct. 28. Former President George W. Bush and Laura Bush each gave $2,900 to O’Dea’s campaign. |
| → | Trudy Busch Valentine, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Missouri, put $2 million of her own money in her campaign account Oct. 31. Valentine is a big underdog against Eric Schmitt to take the retiring Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) seat. |
– Jake Sherman and Max Cohen
FRONTS
– Jake Sherman
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