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November 3, 2023
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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning.
Speaker Mike Johnson is about to run into a legislative buzzsaw.
On every major issue Congress is currently considering, Johnson is not only out of step with Senate Democrats and the Biden administration — but he’s also out of step with Senate Republican leadership, which has its own unique set of challenges.
The Israel aid bill that passed through the House Thursday evening is dead on arrival in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to completely ignore it.
The passage of the Israel bill was a victory for Johnson. But his decision to couple the aid with $14 billion in cuts to the IRS robbed Israel of the money it needs in the short term. And it robbed the Louisiana Republican of the opportunity to make law early on in his speakership.
Now the Senate could soon dump a bill that pairs aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan on Johnson’s lap — likely with provisions addressing the U.S.-Mexico border crisis.
By then, Israel will need the money urgently and Johnson will have to figure out how to muscle it — or some other bill — through his chamber. Johnson has already told Senate Republicans he won’t accept grouping aid to Israel and Ukraine.
With the government shutting down in 15 days, Johnson has said he wants to extend spending authority until Jan. 15. But on Thursday, the speaker floated a bizarre plan hatched by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) — a “laddered CR.” The scheme, which Johnson only described obliquely, would extend government funding agency by agency for different periods of time. This could effectively create a cascade of government shutdown threats over the next few months.
Even GOP leadership aides found the plan bizarre and were alarmed Johnson mentioned it. The Senate, of course, would not go for this.
Left unsaid is that whatever stopgap House Republicans push, Johnson seems certain to seek to pair it with policy changes or steep spending cuts. These will also be a tough lift in the Senate and with President Joe Biden.
And Johnson’s stated preference to tie a Ukraine package to a GOP-approved fix for the southern border essentially amounts to pairing an issue that has huge bipartisan support — helping Ukraine — with one of Congress’ most vexing policy challenges — immigration.
Republicans are now messaging it as a trade, of sorts: If we give Democrats more Ukraine money, they should give us some border policy changes in return. The problem with this argument is that a majority of Republicans still back Ukraine aid, too, so it’s not just Democrats asking for it.
A group of GOP senators, led by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), is crafting a border proposal that would include significant policy changes. Schumer has said policy changes are a non-starter in the supplemental.
But Lankford insists that the plan, which could be released as soon as next week, will be something that could conceivably attract some Democratic support.
“[Our border plan] actually has to be able to get a result with consequences that matter. We’re not talking about messaging here,” Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told us.
But let’s be real. The Senate hasn’t gotten 60 votes for anything major on immigration policy in a very long time. Immigration reform is the third rail of American politics. And House conservatives are already dismissing the Senate effort, which puts additional pressure on Johnson.
Lankford’s group is looking to overhaul asylum laws and address controversial policy matters like “catch and release” and “remain in Mexico,” according to multiple Republicans. This will almost certainly spark a call from Democrats to include protections for DREAMers.
These kinds of grand bargains have an abysmal track record. Remember the Senate’s big immigration debate in 2018? How about when the House ignored the Senate’s immigration bill in 2013?
This time around Senate Republicans have serious leverage to deny Democrats the votes for the supplemental without a GOP-approved border plan. Barrasso said the border portion is Republicans’ “red line.”
But don’t forget, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cares deeply about passing a robust Ukraine package. Making it contingent on a historically difficult issue like immigration is making the Ukraine hawks nervous. And Senate conservatives have been warning their leadership all week against taking actions that would undermine Johnson.
McConnell is undeterred. He once again spent the week hammering home his view that Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan are all interconnected and demanded a comprehensive U.S. response.
At the same time, McConnell blessed Lankford’s border effort and acknowledged that his conference won’t support anything resembling Biden’s supplemental request without “serious” border security.
If the latter doesn’t come together, McConnell will have to look to the middle of his conference to see if there are enough votes to put a foreign aid package over the finish line. And the window for Ukraine aid is quickly closing.
“If we walk away from Ukraine, the Europeans are going to say, ‘Why can we count on you? We were with you on ill-considered wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,’” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said. “‘Now, when we need your help, you’re going to walk away?’”
Also: House Republican leaders punted consideration of the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development spending bill to next week. The official reason was attendance issues today. The leadership is also having trouble with the bill due to stiff opposition from New York Republicans over cuts to rail and transit funding.
— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio
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LEADER LOOK
What Jeffries thinks about Johnson, 2024
We sat down with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Thursday for an extensive interview about the broad implications of the 2024 election.
Jeffries had a lot to say on everything from the impact Donald Trump will have on down-ballot races to Democrats’ chances of winning the House in 2024. Plus, Jeffries dished on the top races he’s watching. We’ll have the full interview in a special edition of The Tally, publishing next Tuesday. But first, here’s a preview:
On Speaker Mike Johnson: The House’s top Democrat had some kind words for new Speaker Mike Johnson despite the DCCC going hard on the “MAGA Mike” depiction.
Jeffries and Johnson had their first meeting as leaders on Wednesday.
“I think Mike Johnson is smart,” Jeffries told us. “His philosophy is different than my philosophy. But Mike Johnson cares about America. House Democrats care about America. Let’s try to find common ground.”
Jeffries made clear, however, that he believes “every decision that Republicans have made this Congress” has “reinforced the extremism that has taken hold of the modern-day Republican [Party.]”
Then vs. now: We asked Jeffries how the political environment in 2022 compares to this cycle. Jeffries argued that Democrats massively overperformed expectations last cycle — holding onto the Senate and only narrowly losing the House — and would do so again.
Frontliners: Eighteen Republicans are sitting in districts won by President Joe Biden, all top targets for Democrats next cycle. But Jeffries also touched on Democrats’ most vulnerable members, who are in districts carried by former president Donald Trump.
Those Democrats are Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) — who Jeffries called “Ms. Toledo” — Matt Cartwright (Pa.), Mary Peltola (Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.).
“They will certainly, in my view, survive in 2024 with a much better political climate and given the resilient campaign infrastructure that they have built up,” Jeffries said.
Jeffries also nodded to key Democratic pickup opportunities in the deep south including in Alabama and Georgia and potentially Louisiana and Florida.
— Heather Caygle and Max Cohen
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Dems begin to criticize Israel’s military operations in Gaza
New: Israel’s military operations in Gaza are coming under heavy criticism from Democrats in Congress, in what could be a sign of what’s to come from President Joe Biden and his national-security lieutenants.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a close Biden ally on foreign policy, took it a step further on Thursday when he released a statement calling on Israel’s military to dramatically shift its strategy as it pursues Hamas terrorists, citing “unacceptable and unsustainable” civilian casualties in Gaza.
Most Democrats have been giving the Israeli military the benefit of the doubt since the Oct. 7 attacks, noting that Hamas often operates from densely populated civilian areas and uses innocents as human shields. But Murphy said flatly that the bombing campaign is creating a humanitarian disaster and failing to achieve Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas.
In an interview late Thursday, Murphy warned that the Israeli government could be making the same mistakes the United States made in Iraq and Afghanistan, where terror groups only picked up steam over time.
“It is pushing Israel and the United States away from our allies as the world watches this catastrophic level of civilian harm,” Murphy told us. “There seems to be too much permissiveness in the Israeli decision-making structure for civilian casualties.”
Murphy is not calling for a ceasefire. He said Israel has “a right and a responsibility” to “decapitate” Hamas for its horrific terrorist attacks last month, noting that Hamas would never agree to a ceasefire anyway.
But he’s reflecting a shift among Democrats about Israel’s tactics in Gaza, suggesting the Biden administration should push the Israeli government to adopt a more deliberate and surgical approach to wiping out Hamas.
“We’ve all seen an increased level of urgency in the attention President Biden has given to the humanitarian cost of this war,” Murphy added. “My sense is this is a pretty serious ongoing discussion between the administration and Israel about the scope of their operations.”
Statements like these are sure to capture the attention of senior Biden administration officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is in Israel today.
Other Democrats are speaking out, too. A Senate group led by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) released a statement late Thursday calling for a short-term pause that allows humanitarian aid to reach the hardest-hit areas in Gaza. The senators said it’s “nearly impossible” to deliver this aid given the current scale of Israel’s operations.
“The failure to adequately protect non-combatant civilians risks dramatic escalation of the conflict in the region and imposes severe damage on prospects for peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians,” the senators said.
— Andrew Desiderio
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Lawmakers push for climate action in the 2023 farm bill
Climate change is a divisive topic on Capitol Hill. But, slowly, bipartisan agreement is starting to emerge when it comes to one key piece of legislation — the farm bill.
The farm policy package is due for reauthorization in December, just as two recent reports highlight the damaging impact climate change is having on agriculture and threats to the global food supply. The timeline is looking tight though, with few legislative days left this year. Top lawmakers have already conceded they’ll need an extension into next year as negotiations continue.
“I just want to remind everyone that farmers and ranchers were the original environmentalists,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said when asked if he’s pushing for climate provisions in the bill.
Marshall said conservation programs in the past farm bills have been “very successful,” and he wants to ensure Congress continues to provide money for them.
The massive farm bill — last passed in 2018 — has implications for a range of issues, including childhood nutrition, food stability, farm insurance for damage and loss from extreme weather events and more.
We’re following efforts to address climate change in the farm bill as part of our platform, The Punch Up, which examines the equity divide in the United States and efforts to bridge it.
At the frontlines of climate change: Emissions from agriculture are responsible for about 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Farmers this year have already suffered record-breaking heat, droughts and unexpectedly voracious flooding. And the United States is experiencing a critical shortage of products like corn, wheat, beef and poultry partly because of such climate disasters.
In recent months, lawmakers have convened listening sessions both in Washington and across the country as they prepare to draft the farm bill. But climate policy is often a third rail.
Still, recent moves by the agricultural community to acknowledge climate impacts and take action may make it an easier issue for Republican lawmakers to address the issue without significant political blowback.
Areas of agreement: Precision agriculture and regenerative farming are some areas of bipartisan support in the farm package. Regenerative farming— a practice indigenous communities have used for millennia — emphasizes growing crops and raising livestock in a way that nurtures the environment.
Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, told us farmers can play a big role in achieving the country’s climate goals.
“They’ve got to be our partners, and we’ve got to make it affordable for them to make the transition to practices that are going to maintain their farms and their ability to produce food and reduce carbon emissions,” Welch said.
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said she’s focused on several issues, including precision agriculture, crop insurance and disaster payments.
And lawmakers in both parties told us they recognize that smaller, independent farmers and poorer agricultural communities bear the bigger brunt of climate change. They have a tougher time affording the high adaptation costs and shifting to more sustainable practices. The farm bill can help if it includes the right provisions.
“It’s important for all of us, but there’s no question that people on the margins are disproportionately affected,” said Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), another member of the Ag panel.
— Elvina Nawaguna
… AND THERE’S MORE
EMILYs List, the progressive group dedicated to electing pro-abortion rights female candidates, is out with messaging guidance hitting Speaker Mike Johnson.
We’ve tracked how Democratic groups have seized upon Johnson’s anti-abortion rights record to attack the Louisiana Republican.
In a statement putting Johnson “On Notice,” EMILYs List singles out Johnson’s co-sponsorship of “a total federal abortion ban with no exceptions,” vote to “punish doctors for providing reproductive health care” and his opposition to access to contraception.
Want more information on how EMILYs List is messaging? Check out this media toolkit they’re circulating among their partners.
One suggested talking point: “We have to stop MAGA Mike and every Congressman who voted to install him.”
On air. The Anti-Defamation League has a new ad running in New York and D.C. saying that Hamas is the enemy of Israelis and Palestinians. This is one of the first ads we’ve seen on the war in Israel.
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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