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November 6, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
There are 12 days until the government runs out of money and if you’re a member of the House, you should be at least slightly nervous.
Speaker Mike Johnson, who is beginning his second full week on the job, probably has to move a government funding bill this week in order to avert a shutdown when funding expires Nov. 17.
Johnson hasn’t shared much with his leadership team. The GOP whip operation is not currently in action at all. Remember, when GOP speakers move government funding bills, the majority leader and whip operation typically hold listening sessions and begin to work the vote days — if not weeks — in advance. That hasn’t happened yet.
The House Republican Conference is slated to meet on Tuesday behind closed doors and sources in the speaker, majority leader and majority whip’s office told us that they don’t expect much of an answer on the path forward until after that gathering.
But we wanted to take this opportunity to lay out a few options for you that may help inform your thinking ahead of next week.
1) Clean government funding bill. Johnson has signaled that his personal preference is a bill to fund federal agencies until the middle of January. Jan. 12 makes sense under that scenario with the following Monday being a holiday — Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Johnson hasn’t said whether he wants the bill to be clean or not. But this would be the path of least resistance for the Louisiana Republican. Since Johnson became speaker, the House passed the Legislative Branch and Interior appropriations bills. Johnson could make the argument that Congress needs more time on a long-term spending package because the House lost three weeks after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was booted from the speakership.
We’ll say this about Johnson: the Louisiana Republican is a neophyte who never pushed through any bill of consequence. But over the last week, House Republican leadership has been a bit surprised at how Johnson has used his power. The GOP leadership was able to pass the Leg branch bill, which faced significant hurdles, without breaking much of a sweat. Johnson isolated the opposition — including Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) — and convinced the Georgia Republican not to be the lone GOP holdout against the bill.
In other words, all evidence points to the fact that Johnson is still firmly in his honeymoon phase. Johnson can use political capital to push through a clean stopgap bill. But it is likely to sap some of the goodwill he has in the conference.
2) Immigration and/or cuts. One idea bouncing around the House Republican Conference is, again, trying to twin government funding with H.R. 2, the GOP immigration bill. We understand the temptation here. There are serious problems at the U.S. border with Mexico, and House Republicans want to confront Democrats and the Biden administration on them.
The downside is that H.R. 2 is a broad bill that has provisions most senators will reject. And remember that Senate Republicans are working on a separate border plan they say will not amount to a conservative wish list, and they’ll seek to attach it to the national-security supplemental.
Another pathway would be picking a few provisions out of H.R. 2 and attaching them to the funding bill.
If Republicans choose to try to slash federal spending in a two-month stopgap, they’ll have a tough time. House Democrats will object strenuously. And Senate Democrats and Republicans are likely to throw it in the trash bin just like they plan to do with Johnson’s Israel bill, which conditioned aid to $14 billion in IRS cuts.
3) The laddered approach. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) has floated a “laddered CR.” This would extend government funding for each agency for different periods of time. This isn’t going anywhere in the Senate. And if it picks up any steam in the House GOP, you should expect an immediate government shutdown.
Senate insiders assume that the Senate GOP will want to wait to see if the House can move a bill. So it’s all on Johnson’s House.
Sneak peek: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be the special guest at a fundraiser for Johnson before the end of the year at the S-3 Group’s townhouse on Capitol Hill. S-3, a lobbying firm, is a hotbed of former Scalise aides, including Matt Bravo and Marty Reiser. S-3 represents Doordash, Business Roundtable, Air Line Pilots Association, American Petroleum Institute, Google, JP Morgan Chase, Boeing and others.
— Jake Sherman
November Events: Tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 7 at 9 a.m. ET, we’re discussing news of the day, 5G leadership and spectrum policy with Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.). There’s still time to RSVP.
BROWN BAG LIVE, TALLY EDITION!
Immediately following our conversation with Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) tomorrow, Anna, Heather, Andrew and Max will kick off our second in-person Brown Bag Lunch briefing. They’ll answer your questions and break down the road to 2024. RSVP here to join us at The Morrow.
BIG MOVES
Top Sanders staffer will be AOC’s new chief
News: Mike Casca, the deputy chief of staff to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), will become the new chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Casca has been with Sanders since the Vermonter’s 2020 presidential campaign. He then went to Capitol Hill as Sanders’ communications director and later became his deputy chief of staff.
Casca declined to comment.
The move, confirmed by several sources, is a big one in progressive politics on Capitol Hill. Ocasio-Cortez is, perhaps, the most prominent progressive lawmaker on Capitol Hill. Her operation frequently is the fulcrum of the grassroots progressive movement.
Although Ocasio-Cortez is not in leadership, she drives much of the conversation on the left. And her political operation is one of the strongest in Congress. She has $5.4 million on hand and routinely raises more than $1 million each quarter.
Casca is replacing Gerardo Bonilla Chavez, who has been with AOC since 2019. Our friend Pablo Manríquez profiled him for The New Republic last week.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE SENATE
Senate Republicans’ next big move on the Tuberville battle
To hear Senate Republicans tell it, they want to find every possible way to break Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) military promotions blockade before resorting to a temporary patch proposed by Democrats.
But unless Tuberville suddenly relents — the equivalent of Hell freezing over — what they’re really doing is laying the groundwork for an eventual vote in favor of the Democratic resolution that would allow multiple promotions to be approved in tandem.
In the coming days, Republicans — who say the resolution would amount to setting a dangerous precedent — will attempt to show that they’ve exhausted every possible option and were forced into backing it. And that will mean putting Tuberville’s intransigence on full display.
“Sometimes you have a rough evening and you can reorient your thinking,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said of the likelihood Tuberville backs off. “But I’m not done. Oh, I’m not done.”
Republicans like Sullivan are trying to show they’re bending over backward to convince Tuberville to find a different way to express his view on the abortion policy. One is to pursue a lawsuit, which would take months if not years, and the other is to place a hold on the nominee for Pentagon policy chief, Derek Chollet.
Of course, neither would be palatable to Tuberville because his leverage would suddenly vanish. That’s why Republicans are planning even more attempts to confirm promotions on the Senate floor this week — which will once again serve to highlight Tuberville’s obstinacy and help GOP senators explain their eventual vote for the resolution.
“I’m all for keeping the Senate’s existing rules in place. But Tommy’s ruining it for all of us,” one GOP senator close to the ongoing talks lamented.
Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said the resolution would set a bad precedent, but Tuberville’s holds “also set a bad precedent — placing a hold on hundreds of military promotions at a time of war and national-security tumult.”
When asked if Tuberville was negotiating in good faith, Sullivan, who’s leading the effort with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), paused before responding: “I think there are opportunities for good-faith negotiations, absolutely.”
Not necessarily a ringing endorsement. And it says a lot about the spot Tuberville is in. The Alabama Republican has boxed himself into a position that will not yield the outcome he wants — the reversal of the Pentagon’s abortion policy. But the alternative is a total capitulation, which wouldn’t go over well with the GOP base that’s cheering him on.
Democrats believe the trend of GOP senators speaking out against Tuberville will only accelerate as defense hawks continue to show that Tuberville isn’t backing off.
“I don’t think Tuberville wins. I think in the end we solve the problem,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “If there aren’t [enough GOP votes] the first time we offer it, there probably will be the second time.”
There are institutional considerations here, too, and these will surely be vocalized at a special Republican Conference meeting on Tuesday afternoon.
The Democrat-led resolution, while not technically a rules change under the Senate’s definition, is, in layman’s terms, a temporary change to existing rules with a specified end date.
This would be short of going nuclear. And there’s a belief within leadership that the longer this drags on, the more it whets Democrats’ appetite for the nuclear option.
Another argument we expect will be made at the Tuesday meeting: This doesn’t just harm the military; it hands Democrats an election-year argument that Republicans are willing to tear down the military over abortion.
Another thing to consider — the messengers. Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) are probably the best people to make the case to the universe of Republicans who’d consider voting for the resolution. Reed and Sinema, who are co-leading it, have good relationships with Republicans and track records for building coalitions.
— Andrew Desiderio
PRESENTED BY BOEING
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DISARRAY
House Democrats hit back on Tlaib in new letter
Rep. Brad Schneider’s (D-Ill.) staff is circulating a new letter, criticizing a phrase used by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) when describing the war between Hamas and Israel.
The statement, for which Schneider’s staff is seeking signatures, says this:
Tlaib released a video last week in which a crowd is heard chanting “from the river to the sea.” The phrase refers to Palestinians taking land in Israel from the Jordan River in the eastern part of Israel to the Mediterranean Sea, which borders the western portion of the Jewish State. The chant is widely seen as calling for the end of Israel.
Tlaib later said: “From the river to the sea is an aspirational call for freedom, human rights, and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction, or hate.”
On Sunday evening, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) weighed in, calling the phrase one of “division & violence.”
We hear that Republicans may try to censure Tlaib again, but this time write the resolution to tightly deal with Tlaib’s comments.
— Jake Sherman and Heather Caygle
What to expect from Weiss
David Weiss — the special counsel investigating Hunter Biden — is testifying in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday. Here’s what to expect from Weiss’ behind-closed-doors transcribed interview.
Weiss is the U.S. attorney for Delaware and has been investigating President Joe Biden’s son since former President Donald Trump’s tenure. House Republicans have made Weiss a central figure of their oversight agenda, accusing the federal prosecutor of mishandling the Hunter Biden probe and allowing politics to interfere with his investigation.
Weiss’ goals: Weiss will be the first special counsel to testify in front of Congress during an ongoing investigation. Weiss is doing this to combat mischaracterizations of his work, according to his team.
“Mr. Weiss is prepared to take this unprecedented step of testifying before the conclusion of his investigation to make clear that he’s had and continues to have full authority over his investigation and to bring charges in any jurisdiction,” Special Counsel spokesperson Wyn Hornbuckle said in a statement.
Gary Shapley, an IRS whistleblower, testified to the House Oversight Committee that Weiss didn’t have full authority in the Hunter Biden case. Specifically, Shapley has argued that in an October 2022 meeting, Weiss told members of the investigation that he was not the one who decided whether to file charges or not.
Weiss is expected to strenuously deny this and maintain he had full authority over the inquiry.
One thing Weiss won’t divulge: Any details on how the Hunter Biden probe is currently unfolding.
“Consistent with department policy and the law, he will be unable to address the specifics of his investigation,” Hornbuckle said.
Zooming out: Taking a step back for a moment, it’s important to note that there is no evidence that the president had any involvement in Weiss’ investigation. Attorney General Merrick Garland granted Weiss special counsel authority in August. And Garland has maintained that the investigation is independent of political considerations.
Hornbuckle said Weiss will brief Congress after the investigation is closed and he’s finished his report, as is typical for special counsels.
— Max Cohen
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