The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Trumpquake rocks Washington

Too close to call: The outstanding Senate and House races

GOP leadership drama plays out in a newly Republican-dominated D.C.

Highlighting the ‘firsts’ of the 119th Congress

HFC members go rogue to block Social Security bill

THE TOP

Trumpquake rocks Washington

Happy Wednesday morning.

Welcome back to Donald Trump’s Washington.

Trump’s stunning evisceration of the Blue Wall and Vice President Kamala Harris’ underperformance in all corners of the country has ushered in a new era for U.S. politics — a dramatic shift rightward.

Trump’s all-but-official victory is stunning in its completeness. The former president is on track to sweep all seven of the key battleground states, a huge reversal from 2020. Trump will even win the popular vote by millions of votes. He lost that badly in the last two campaigns.

Trump wasted no time in claiming victory even before his win was formally certified.

Addressing a crowd at 2:30 a.m. EST in West Palm Beach, Fla., that included Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump declared a new “golden age of America.”

“I’d like to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th and the 45th president,” Trump declared.

“Look what happened? Is this crazy? But it’s a political victory that we’ve never seen before, nothing like this,” Trump added. “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”

Trump’s historic comeback — from the depths of political wilderness following the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection and subsequent criminal convictions to now heading back to the Oval Office in January — also included running the table in big Senate races.

And Trump asserted that it “looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives.” That’s still uncertain with lots of races undecided, although House Republicans exuded confidence heading into Wednesday morning.

The Senate, as expected, has flipped to the Republicans. What’s currently a 51-49 GOP majority could dramatically expand with Trump-fueled victories. If the current numbers hold, Republicans could be looking at a 56-44 majority, the most in nearly a century. Not even the most optimistic Republicans predicted that they’d win seven Democratic-held seats.

Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Jim Justice won in West Virginia. GOP challengers are leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Montana. In Nevada, don’t count out Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen yet. But Republicans fended off challengers in Florida, Texas and Nebraska, dashing already-slim Democratic hopes of holding onto the Senate.

This big Senate majority would give Trump a real chance to enact his agenda and get his Cabinet confirmed without major issues. Furthermore, Trump may be able to add to the 6-3 Supreme Court majority that he built from 2017 to 2021.

The battle for the House is still too close to call. Yet Johnson could fulfill his prediction and keep the House majority, giving Republicans a trifecta for the next two years

Democrats picked up seats in House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ backyard, unseating Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.). Democrats added new minority-opportunity seats in Louisiana and Alabama, although there are still legal fights there.

But Democrats lost seats in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) are barely hanging on, and hoped-for Democratic wins in Nebraska, Iowa and, most importantly, California, haven’t materialized, yet.

Should Republicans keep the House, they’ll have full control of D.C. for the second time in eight years. This time, Trump would have a more cooperative and submissive speaker in Johnson and a Senate majority filled with candidates who won their races on the backs of the MAGA movement’s popularity.

Republicans’ legislative ambitions on Capitol Hill will be sky-high and only limited by their ability to get 218 votes in the House and 60 votes in the Senate. That is if Republicans keep the filibuster intact, which they insist they will.

The only potential check on Trump’s power will be if House Democrats find a way to sweep enough seats in the West to win back the majority.

Trump’s ascendance reshuffles all the power dynamics on Capitol Hill. Suddenly, figures such as House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) will be among the most important people in the Capitol, with a direct line to the most powerful man in the world.

What should you expect in Trump’s Washington?

— Congressional leaders have promised an incredibly productive first 100 days. That means that you should expect Republicans to try to extend the Trump-era tax cuts by April 30. This filibuster-proof reconciliation package could include big changes to energy policy and other areas as well.

— Given a healthy Senate majority, Trump will be able to confirm almost any nominee he wants. It would be much easier, for example, to give Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a position atop one of the health agencies, if he wants to serve in the federal government.

— We expect Trump to reach into red states for Cabinet selections. For months, it seemed like Team Trump would only take one senator for the Cabinet, but now they feel like they can take two or three. Names that have been floated include Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik has been gunning to be the next U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) has also been mentioned as a potential selection for an administration job, according to Trump sources.

Sidenote: Mike Pompeo, the former House Republican, CIA director and secretary of State, is lobbying for Defense secretary, according to Trump world. The Trump transition team will be meeting today at Mar-a-Lago.

— U.S. aid to Ukraine is likely over. Trump has said that he’ll quickly broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv. In any event, Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) see no reason to keep spending U.S. dollars to defend Ukrainians.

— Trump has said that Elon Musk will be charged with slashing the size of federal agencies. This will be a struggle that Congress will have to engage in.

— Trump will dramatically remake immigration policy. Will he be able to deport millions of undocumented immigrants? This would set off a gigantic political struggle.

And Congress will be in the middle of it all.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

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2024

Too close to call: The outstanding Senate and House races

The polls are closed in every state, but vote counting in some parts of the country may continue for days if there isn’t a clear winner.

We don’t yet know if Republicans will hold onto their slim House majority. The battleground races out west are far from settled.

And as expected, the Senate has flipped to the GOP — though the party’s margins could grow significantly once races are called in the Blue Wall states and out West. We’re talking about a potential 56 seats for Republicans. They haven’t held that many Senate seats since the 71st Congress.

The Senate: As of this writing, Republicans have secured a Senate majority of at least 51 seats. If Tim Sheehy holds on to defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), that’s 52.

Looming GOP wins in the Blue Wall states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — could pad their majority further to as many as 55 seats. There’s also the Nevada Senate race. As of now, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is trailing GOP challenger Sam Brown by roughly 2,300 votes. Rosen could still pull this out, however.

If former President Donald Trump can carry GOP candidates to victories in the Blue Wall states, that would be a dramatic turnaround from four years ago, when Republicans openly blamed Trump for dragging them down and ultimately losing the Senate majority. In 2022, you’ll recall, many of Trump’s preferred candidates won their primaries but lost the general election in what Republicans believed were winnable states.

But Republicans made a conscious decision this cycle to keep Trump close when it came to primaries and endorsements — a strategy driven by NRSC Chair Steve Daines.

Republican challengers in the battleground Senate races hugged Trump tightly in the final stretch as polls continued to show Trump out-performing them in their respective states. It may take a bit until we know whether it worked, but as of now, most of the GOP candidates are running almost even with Trump in the outstanding races.

The Arizona Senate race is far from being officially called yet, although Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) seems on track to defeat Kari Lake, who did little to try to appeal beyond the MAGA base.

The House: California, California, California. There are five toss-ups in the Golden State that remain uncalled. Democrats need to win as many as they can to win the majority.

We’re looking at GOP Reps. Michelle Steel (Calif.), Mike Garcia (Calif.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.) and John Duarte (Calif.). Other key uncalled western races include Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).

House Republicans are playing a lot of defense here. There’s still a lot of counting to go, so remain patient. But the trends are good for the GOP.

None of the Michigan races are called yet. Republicans are leading in the open 7th District and have a good flip opportunity there. Plus, we’re still waiting to see if Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) or Don Bacon (R-Neb.) survive. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) is winning a very close race as well.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

THE SPEAKER

GOP leadership drama plays out in a newly Republican-dominated D.C.

For months, aides and lawmakers in the House Republican Conference mused that Speaker Mike Johnson was weak and susceptible to a challenge.

All of that chatter may suddenly go silent.

Johnson has spent his last 378 days as speaker crisscrossing America, preaching the gospel of former President Donald Trump, raising cash and predicting that Republicans would sweep the House, Senate and White House on Election Day.

Now, if Republicans hold the majority, Johnson’s position atop the House Republican Conference would be secure.

Johnson has to win a floor vote for speaker. But if Republicans hang on – which may not be clear for days – Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer will remain atop the House GOP.

Across the Capitol, the Senate Republican leadership race between Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and freshly reelected Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is also in full swing following Tuesday’s big night for the GOP. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be able to fulfill his hope of handing a new majority to whoever succeeds him after a record-breaking run in the post.

Multiple GOP senators and aides told us Thune, Cornyn and Scott have been working the phones hard. They’re sending texts and making phone calls in a bid to line up support. Thune, the minority whip, might have the inside track since he’s already in leadership.

But Cornyn is lobbying his colleagues very hard. Cornyn raised a lot of money for senators this cycle and in the past, and he has a lot of chits out there to cash in. He’s popular and well-respected, although there are some questions from conservatives over his support for the CHIPS Act and a gun-control bill.

Senate Republicans will hold their leadership elections on the same days as their House GOP counterparts — Nov. 13. That doesn’t give any of the trio much time to formally nail their votes, although the contest has been percolating at a low level for months.

Back to the House for a moment: There are two big questions about the GOP leadership structure that we now need to think about. Did NRCC Chair Richard Hudson do enough to put himself in the mix to be Energy and Commerce Committee chair? Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Bob Latta (R-Ohio) have been battling it out for months. But Hudson could make the case that after a night like this he deserves the gavel.

If House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik goes into the Trump administration, as is widely assumed, that will open up the No. 4 position. Many people have mentioned Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) as the favorite. But Hinson may want to run for Senate when Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) retires. Running for the Senate after being in the leadership is not advisable.

First in Punchbowl News: Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), House GOP conference secretary, plans to run for her position again, according to her spokesman.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Melanie Zanona

119TH CONGRESS

Highlighting the ‘firsts’ of the 119th Congress

The 119th Congress will usher in a number of notable “firsts” when it kicks off in early January. Here are some of the incoming members who are poised to make history:

— Sens.-elect Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) will become the first two Black women to serve together in the Senate. Neither Delaware or Maryland have ever had a Black senator. And Delaware has never been represented by a woman in the upper chamber.

We talked to Blunt Rochester before the election, and she reflected on the possibility of being sworn into the Senate alongside Alsobrooks.

– Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-Del.) will become the first openly transgender member to serve in Congress. Her election comes at a time when Republicans have increasingly targeted transgender rights.

– Rep.-elect Julie Johnson (D-Texas) will be the first openly gay member to not only represent Texas but the entire South.

— Emily Randall (D-Wash.) is on track to become the first openly LGBTQ Latina in Congress. Her race hasn’t been officially called but she’s well ahead in the safe blue seat.

— Sen.-elect Andy Kim (D-N.J.) will be the first Korean-American senator.

— Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is poised to become the first Hispanic senator from Arizona. His race also hasn’t been called but he’s ahead.

— Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) will become the first Hispanic lawmaker to represent Ohio statewide. He will also become the first senator born in South America.

— Melanie Zanona

HOUSE HAPPENINGS

HFC members go rogue to block Social Security bill

While all eyes were on the election, two House Freedom Caucus members went rogue during Tuesday’s pro forma session to try to kill a widely-backed Social Security bill — and ambush their leadership again.

In a parliamentary maneuver, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) asked unanimous consent to lay the Social Security Fairness Act on the table. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who was presiding, didn’t object. House Republican leadership had no idea the HFC members would do this. It violates protocol for pro forma sessions.

The bill they tabled has 330 cosponsors and got enough discharge petition signatures to force a floor vote. HFC members have been grumbling about the successful effort. The legislation would repeal limits on the Social Security benefits that public workers or their spouses can qualify for if they also have government pensions.

GOP leadership is weighing what to do next.

— Laura Weiss and John Bresnahan

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