The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The power in Trump’s Washington

Johnson, Scalise, Emmer and Stefanik look to stay atop House GOP Conference

Democrats’ blue-collar blues

News: Inside the latest Senate GOP leadership pitches

GOP ready to attempt quick action on tax bill

THE TOP

The power in Trump’s Washington

Happy Thursday morning.

Each new president and each new Congress ushers in a new set of power players to Washington, a group of insiders, lobbyists, advisers and aides who have unique insight — and connections — to make things happen in town.

President-elect Donald Trump is no different. A number of figures have been floating around Trump’s orbit for years. They’ve leveraged their knowledge of the president’s party into lucrative careers in the nation’s capital. Let’s dig in.

Outside players.

– Jeff Miller. Miller Strategies has a stable of blue-chip clients including Altria, Apple, Blackstone, Charles Schwab, Delta, Oracle and Southern Company. But most importantly, Miller is one of Trump’s top fundraisers. Miller raised $120 million for Trump last cycle and will almost certainly beat that record this time around.

– Brian Ballard. Ballard is an institution in Florida and built a healthy business in the first Trump term. But if you ask around the Trump orbit about Ballard, you’ll hear that he endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis this time around. Yet Ballard still has a lot of friends in Trump world.

– Arthur Schwartz. Schwartz is a longtime behind-the-scenes operator who has extremely close relationships with corporations looking for advice in Trump’s D.C. He’s been Donald Trump Jr.’s political adviser for years and is close to the Trump family and Vice President-elect JD Vance. Schwartz also has a big House and Senate leadership network.

– Cliff Sims. Sims is playing an integral role in the Trump transition effort. Sims served in the first Trump administration, penned a critical book about the president but still found himself back in the mix shortly afterward. With John Ratcliffe poised to be CIA director, Sims may find himself in Langley; he worked for Ratcliffe when the Texas Republican was director of the Office of National Intelligence.

– Andy Surabian. Surabian was one of the architects of Vance’s Senate campaign and a close adviser on the VP campaign as well.

– Johnny DeStefano. DeStefano was a key player in Trump’s first White House, helping run personnel for the 45th president. Now, he’s the top outside adviser to Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), a leading candidate to be the next Senate majority leader.

– Wayne Berman. Berman is the longtime head of global government affairs for Blackstone. He’s been a power player for decades. There are efforts afoot to recruit Berman to be deputy secretary of Treasury.

Lawmakers.

– Speaker Mike Johnson: For the first time ever, Trump has a speaker who he is ideologically simpatico with. Johnson tied himself to Trump, and now Trump gets a congressional leader who will back his agenda — for better or worse.

– Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.): Barrasso will be the GOP whip next year and has spent a ton of time with Trump on the campaign trail. Through Schwartz and other figures, Barrasso has a lot of ties to Trump world and is ideologically close to the president-elect.

– House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik: There’s no one who has tied herself to Trump quite like Stefanik. It may work out for her, as Stefanik has been angling for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. But if Republicans have a slim margin in the House, her dream could hit a brick wall.

– House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio): Jordan is already one of the most powerful men on the Hill, boasting a massive staff and an equally large megaphone. Trump sees Jordan as a fellow ideological traveler.

– Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.): Trump’s golfing buddy — and one of his closest allies — will be the chair of the Senate Budget Committee and a critical voice on foreign policy.

– Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.): Cotton is a bridge, of sorts, from the GOP leadership to Trump. He won’t accept a job in the administration, so he’ll be on the Hill for the foreseeable future.

– Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.): Schmitt has been mentioned by some as a candidate to be attorney general. He helped lead Trump’s debate prep over the summer and was a frequent presence on the campaign trail. He’s come a long way from the “Eric” endorsement.

– Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.): Mullin has been with Trump since the beginning and campaigned everywhere for him.

– Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.): Last term, Trump selected Hagerty to be his ambassador to Japan. He’s now in the mix to head up Treasury or State.

– Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.): Daines was the NRSC chair this cycle and successfully navigated the Trump-Senate GOP divide to win control of the chamber in spectacular fashion.

– Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): No longer “Little Marco,” Rubio was on Trump’s VP shortlist and was his top TV surrogate in the closing days of the campaign. He’s also a trusted confidant on intel matters.

– Rep.-elect Brian Jack (R-Ga.): Jack is the only freshman we’re putting on this list. Why? Jack ran Trump’s political operation. He could end up as NRCC chair at some point. And of everyone in the House Republican Conference, Jack understands how this White House — and its staff — works.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Melanie Zanona

November Events: Join Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman on Thursday, Nov. 21 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.). They’ll sit down to discuss the news of the day and the future of defense and industrial policy. RSVP!

POWER IN THE HOUSE

Johnson, Scalise, Emmer and Stefanik look to stay atop House GOP Conference

House GOP leaders are moving quickly to lock down their positions atop the conference as Republicans look poised to keep the majority. Internal leadership elections are scheduled next week, and we’re expecting a drama-free process — as long as Republicans remain in the majority.

Speaker Mike Johnson formally launched his bid for the speaker’s gavel with a “Dear Colleague” letter Wednesday, arguing Republicans have a mandate to govern and need to be ready to deliver “for the people on day one.”

We don’t expect a significant challenge to Johnson, who has tied himself at the hip with President-elect Donald Trump.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise also sent around a letter announcing his intentions to run again for the No. 2 spot, promising to work closely with Trump to enact his agenda in the first 100 days.

Scalise told us in an interview that he spent the last two years “working hard to unite our conference, even with a small majority, that showed what we stood for in the face of really bad policies” from the Biden administration on the economy, border security and energy policy. Now with Trump’s victory and Republicans seizing control of Congress, “We have a real chance to do something about it.”

Scalise said House Republicans want to pass a major reconciliation package within the first 100 days of the new Congress on taxes and other other issues. “We’ll stretch reconciliation as far as it can go,” Scalise insisted.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer started making calls on Wednesday to ask for members’ support for the whip job, according to a source familiar. Emmer will also send this “Dear Colleague” letter to lawmakers later today.

In the letter, Emmer vows to “always be direct, honest, and transparent” and “never make false promises or try to buy your votes.”

Again, there are a lot of things you can say about each of this trio. We’ve written endlessly about them over the past decade or so. But we are hard-pressed to see how anyone can credibly challenge them in the conference election next week.

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik doesn’t have a letter out quite yet. She is angling for ambassador to the United Nations, but sources close to her say she’ll run for conference chair again. Team Trump seems hesitant to tap her for anything if Republicans have a narrow margin in the House.

Also: House Republican leaders will hold a political conference call at 11 a.m. today to brief members on the election results. House Democrats will hold a caucus call at noon.

– John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Melanie Zanona

2024

Democrats’ blue-collar blues

As the full extent of Tuesday’s disaster sinks in — losing the White House and Senate while failing to gain a House majority despite a great opportunity to do so — Democrats are wrestling with a major ideological problem: how to win back blue-collar voters.

Inside the party, Democrats are bashing each other over losing non-college-educated voters and those from families making $100,000 or less. Exit polls show President-elect Donald Trump winning that group, as well as non-college graduates. Trump’s ability to woo these voters helped him win the popular vote while sweeping the seven key battleground states. Trump’s strong showing pulled both House and Senate Republicans to victory.

In an interview, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) — who left the Democratic Party earlier this year — noted that he was scolded by President Joe Biden and other Democrats going back to 2021 over his concerns on inflation, the rising cost of living and the economic fears of the middle class. Trump, he noted, promised to take on those issues directly.

“When I first [warned] about inflation, they all said I was crazy. ‘No, it’s transitory,’” Manchin told us. “I think the president even said ‘I got [17] Nobel laureates’’’ backing the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better package, which Manchin ultimately helped kill over his fear of the inflationary impact. Manchin was later able to help pass the $700 billion Inflation Reduction Act, but he clashed with the White House on the implementation of that measure.

“Basically what Trump said, his message, was able to hit home, it made them more comfortable voting for him over [Harris],” Manchin added of independent voters, who he noted make up most of the electorate. “In West Virginia, they don’t feel comfortable voting for Washington Democrats.”

From the left, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) had an even stronger take:

There’s a general feeling among Democrats that they overestimated the importance of abortion and underestimated the economy, inflation and border security. Yet even some populist Democrats like Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who long championed blue-collar issues, still came up short Tuesday.

Amid the soul-searching, Democrats have already started kicking around ideas to better appeal to working-class voters. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) confirmed there’s talk of revving the Blue Collar Caucus, as we first reported in Wednesday’s midday edition, to “address our party’s clear and consistent underperformance with working-class voters.”

Culture wars: Democrats also privately concede they let Republicans set the narrative on transgender athletes, which became a symbol of Democratic “radicalism.” Republicans spent a significant amount of money on anti-transgender ads in the final stretch, and few Democrats responded.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred was one of the lone Democrats who cut an ad clarifying he doesn’t support boys playing in girls’ sports. But he received some backlash inside the party over the move, according to a source familiar with the situation.

Some Democrats think their party was too dismissive of the potential impact of the GOP attacks. More broadly, they worry Democrats have become too wary of upsetting outside groups and activists.

“They fooled themselves. They have convinced themselves that voters don’t care about this issue,” one centrist House Democrat told us. “It’s just another example, in my opinion, of Democrats not having a spine and letting groups dictate to us, because we want to keep these organizations happy.”

Progressives push back that Harris tacked to the center on a number of issues, including immigration, and argue going any further to the right would compromise their core values as a party.

Expect a lot more bloodletting as Democrats digest the election results in upcoming conference calls and caucus meetings.

— John Bresnahan, Melanie Zanona and Mica Soellner

THE SENATE

News: Inside the latest Senate GOP leadership pitches

The Senate Republicans vying to succeed Mitch McConnell as GOP leader are making post-election calls to their colleagues as they look to secure the requisite votes ahead of the leadership elections on Wednesday.

We checked in with several Republican senators and senior aides Wednesday to better understand how Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are pitching their candidacies.

All three are now tailoring their pitches to the likely prospect of a GOP trifecta. What stood out to us was the posture of senators who are on the fence between the two “Johns.” Many senators see very few differences between Thune and Cornyn, so they’re asking why they should cast their vote for one over the other.

John Thune

In private conversations, Thune is zeroing in on the fact that he served as a committee chair (Commerce). This dovetails with Thune’s argument for empowering committees as a way to “democratize” the conference.

Thune is also touting his aggressive public campaigning in eight-plus states with Senate GOP candidates this cycle, arguing that candidates see him as an effective messenger, not just a fundraising vehicle.

Looking ahead to next year’s tax fight, Thune is telling Republicans he’s the best person to lead the party through that effort, noting he was part of the “Core Four” that crafted the 2017 legislation and has a long history working on tax policy.

John Cornyn

Cornyn is reminding senators that he ran budget reconciliation efforts as whip, including passing the original Trump tax cuts in 2017. This is relevant in the context of a GOP trifecta, which would trigger reconciliation as the likely vehicle for the expiring tax cuts.

The Texas Republican is also playing up his fundraising prowess. Cornyn has raised more than $400 million since his first Senate election in 2002.

Cornyn later chaired the NRSC for two terms and, more recently, created a joint fundraising committee that allows him to raise money for GOP campaigns. Senators tell us Cornyn routinely asks them if they need campaign cash from his coffers — including senators who don’t usually have tough races.

Rick Scott

Scott is pitching himself to senators as the truest Trump ally and the best person to carry out the president-elect’s agenda. This is an implicit dig at Thune and Cornyn, who have rocky histories with Trump. Scott believes Trump could endorse him, too, but it’s a secret ballot election.

He’s also noting that Trump’s campaign co-chief Susie Wiles — a top contender for White House chief of staff — ran his 2010 gubernatorial race.

Scott is also highlighting his close ties to Speaker Mike Johnson.

— Andrew Desiderio

MOMENTS

CLIPS