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IN THIS EDITION

New warning signs for Johnson

House Dems in the spotlight on tax deal

Scalise raises north of $27 million in 2023

Kevin Morris says he didn’t expect anything from Joe Biden

Green securing votes for Mayorkas impeachment

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New warning signs for Johnson

Happy Friday morning.

Congress averted a government shutdown Thursday. The Senate cleared the stopgap — which extends government funding until March — by a comfortable 77-18 margin.

In the lower chamber, members of the House Freedom Caucus tried to get Speaker Mike Johnson to put the bill through the Rules Committee and amend it with H.R. 2. Johnson resisted, and the bill passed 314-108.

But behind that massive total were some warning signs for Johnson.

There were some notable votes against him. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, Johnson’s No. 3 who is said to be in the mix for former President Donald Trump’s running mate, bucked the speaker.

Also defying Johnson:

→	Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (Texas)

→	Veterans Affairs Chair Mike Bost (Ill.)

→	Rep. Mike Gallagher (Wis.), the chair of the China Select Committee

→	Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (Tenn.)

→	Ethics Chair Mike Guest (Miss.)

→	Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (Ohio)

→	Administration Chair Brian Steil (Wis.)

→	Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (Ark.)

→	Small Business Chair Roger Williams (Texas)

There should be alarm bells blaring on the second floor of the House leadership suite. This is a stunning number of defections from lawmakers who should be loyal to Johnson.

Johnson needs all the loyalty he can muster. He is about to enter an extraordinarily challenging period — one that would challenge any speaker, not to mention one who’s been in power fewer than 100 days.

Let’s run down what to expect over the next few weeks.

1) Border and supplemental. It’s fair to say that the White House meeting between congressional leaders and President Joe Biden did not solve anything major when it comes to the foreign aid and border supplemental.

As early as next week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will begin the process of bringing this package to the floor.

Johnson will tear the bill apart — partially because he will inevitably disagree with the policy, and partially because it’s in his political benefit to do so.

And then there’s the fact that a majority of House Republicans outright oppose more Ukraine funding. At some point, Johnson is going to want to call the White House to Capitol Hill to brief Republicans on Ukraine. That will be quite the show.

2) How soon does the Senate move? Schumer has queued up nomination votes for the beginning of next week, but it’s unclear if the legislative text for the border portion will be ready in time for the Senate to begin the process of passing it.

“We want to make sure everyone has a chance to see and fully understand what the bill would do,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us Thursday. “I don’t think there’s any particular rush. It’s more important that we get it done right.”

Senate GOP leaders don’t want the perception to be that they’re trying to jam this through with little time to review and critique it. This is of particular concern for Republicans who oppose Ukraine aid and will try to torpedo the effort.

Of course, the exact timing is up to Schumer.

3) All eyes on McConnell. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been one of the strongest advocates for the supplemental — not just the border policy changes, but also what he sees as the urgent national-security priorities addressed in the package.

McConnell has a difficult task. He’ll need to convince enough GOP senators to support the package as a way to show Johnson it has strong Republican backing. GOP leaders say a good benchmark is half of the conference — so at least 25.

Johnson could ultimately decide to say no to the Senate bill regardless of how many Republicans vote for it. But this will be an important number for McConnell, whom we expect will intensify his push.

4) The right and left will mobilize. During the first two years of Biden’s presidency, the Senate passed major bipartisan legislation with the support of all Democrats and just a handful of Republicans to get 60 votes.

This isn’t going to be one of those bills.

Conservatives who oppose Ukraine funding will be against it, as will progressives who oppose the border policy changes. The big question is whether there’s a large enough universe of senators in both parties who could vote for the bill. If there’s any prayer of getting a vote in the House, it’ll need a lot more than 60.

5) What will Trump do? It’s not hyperbole to say Trump has the power to kill this entire effort. Trump has been cool to Ukraine funding. And his political operation is certainly wary of Republicans giving Biden a win — even a perceived one — on an issue like the border that has made him so vulnerable.

If Johnson hasn’t already declared the Senate bill dead, Trump coming out against it could be the nail in the coffin.

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

NEW EVENT! Join us on Friday, Feb. 9 at 9 a.m. ET for an interview in Cincinnati, Ohio. Punchbowl News founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman will be joined by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) for a conversation about the news of the day and the challenges facing small business owners. This event is the first in a two-part travel series presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices, and will feature a fireside chat with Barb Smith, owner of Journey Steel, and Liz Field, owner of the Cheesecakery. RSVP now!

House Dems in the spotlight on tax deal

We’ll find out this morning whether key House Democrats plan to support the bipartisan tax deal that Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) struck with Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) earlier this week.

When Ways and Means kicks off its markup of the Smith bill at 9 a.m., expect Democrats to make plenty of noise about wanting more from the package — particularly on the child tax credit.

But they’re not ruling out support for legislation that would devote $33 billion to helping families while also expanding business tax benefits, an affordable housing incentive and disaster relief.

Ways and Means ranking member Richie Neal (D-Mass.) said he’s going in with an “open mind” and will “see where the flow goes” during the markup, but he wouldn’t say definitively how he’ll vote.

Still, Neal credited House Democrats with wedging some priorities into the deal, saying there’s not much more that could have been done with slim majorities in both chambers.

“We feel as though there’s a work product here,” Neal said Thursday evening. “We’ll vote accordingly tomorrow.”

Expect those amendments: Before the final vote, Neal said Democrats would have some “pretty vigorous amendments” including one to expand the child tax credit further. He said that proposal would make the point that it’s what Democrats will do if they win in November.

Democratic support will be critical to passing the deal given the likelihood that any House vote will be held under a suspension of the rules, which would require a two-thirds majority for passage. Even if Democrats support the measure, expect to keep hearing about their priority program, the child tax credit, from here on out.

— Laura Weiss

THE MONEY GAME

Scalise raises north of $27 million in 2023

News: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise raised $27.2 million for Defend the House, his joint fundraising committee, continuing his very solid fundraising in the post-Kevin McCarthy era.

Scalise pulled in $13.5 million in large-dollar contributions. Scalise is known for his online fundraising. The Louisiana Republican continued that trend raising $11.5 million online from 126,000 donors.

Scalise also transferred $9.7 million to the NRCC and gave $3.5 million to other GOP candidates.

Top GOP lobbyist hosting Johnson fundraiser: Jeff Miller, a top Republican lobbyist and close friend of McCarthy, is hosting a major fundraiser for Speaker Mike Johnson’s Grow the Majority joint fundraising committee.

The event, Jan. 31, is expected to raise north of $4 million, according to a source close to the fundraiser. Scalise, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson are all expected to attend as is every Republican committee chair.

— Jake Sherman

Kevin Morris says he didn’t expect anything from Joe Biden

News: Kevin Morris, the Hunter Biden associate who testified on Capitol Hill Thursday, told investigators he never expected anything in return from President Joe Biden after he loaned his son large sums of money.

“My only goal was and is to help my friend and client. In this country there is no prohibition against helping a friend in need with no ulterior motive,” Morris said in his opening statement, according to a copy we obtained.

“I did not and do not have any expectations of receiving anything from Hunter’s father or the Biden administration in exchange for helping Hunter, nor have I asked for anything from President Biden or his administration,” Morris added in his opening statement.

Morris testified before the House Oversight Committee in a closed-door session on Thursday.

Some background: Morris, a prominent entertainment lawyer in Los Angeles, met Hunter Biden in 2019 at a Joe Biden presidential fundraiser. Since then, Morris has spent nearly $5 million to financially assist Hunter Biden.

In Morris’ opening statement, he said he was “confident Hunter will repay these loans.”

House Republicans, of course, see the issue differently. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) said Morris’ “massive financial support to Hunter Biden raises ethical and campaign finance concerns for President Joe Biden.”

Comer argued in a statement after the interview that Morris’ interactions with Hunter Biden followed “a familiar pattern where Hunter Biden’s associates have access to Joe Biden himself.”

Republicans are investigating the extent to which associates of Joe Biden’s family members affected Biden’s decisions in elected office. To date, the House GOP hasn’t found any conclusive evidence Biden committed impeachable offenses.

Oversight Democrats, led by ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), have decried the GOP focus on Morris as particularly off base.

“It is hard to articulate how far removed this interview is from an impeachment inquiry for presidential high crimes and misdemeanors,” Raskin said in a statement.

In case you missed it: Hunter Biden will appear for a transcribed interview on Feb. 28, top GOP investigators announced on Thursday.

— Max Cohen

HOUSE GOP

Green securing votes for Mayorkas impeachment

News: House Homeland Security Committee Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) is holding individual meetings with skeptical Republicans to convince them to support impeaching DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Green told us that he’s working on convincing “less than a handful” of Republican members dubious about whether Mayorkas has met the level of high crimes and misdemeanors to justify impeachment. The chairman wouldn’t say whether he has the votes for impeachment yet.

“We’re going to sit down with them one-on-one, which we’ve already started,” Green said. “I’ll be surprised to get any Democrats, although behind the scenes they’ll tell you Mayorkas should’ve been fired months ago. It’ll probably be a [party-line] vote.”

Every vote counts here, with Republican leaders navigating one of the narrowest margins in congressional history. Depending on when the House votes on impeachment, Republicans could potentially afford to lose only two votes if all Democrats are present and opposed.

Impeaching Mayorkas has been a top goal for House conservatives, who pushed Green late last year to expedite his probe. Green spent nearly a year investigating what he says is Mayorkas’ “dereliction of duty” at the U.S.-Mexico border. The committee will mark up an impeachment resolution on Jan. 31 after holding just two impeachment hearings.

While we anticipate any impeachment vote will be along party lines, here’s who we’re keeping an eye on:

→	Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) told us he has an “open mind” and spoke with Green and his staff, but also plans to chat with outside constitutional experts before making a decision. Buck has also been noncommittal about the House GOP effort to impeach President Joe Biden.

→	Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) refused to say if he would vote to impeach Mayorkas but said he is willing to sit down with Green and his staff if asked.

→	Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is also keeping his cards close to his chest when it comes to impeachment. McHenry, who is clearly exasperated by House conservatives’ throwing the chamber into chaos, said he “hasn’t studied it at all.”

→	Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) has been a leading impeachment skeptic. McClintock has consistently ripped the push by his colleagues to impeach Biden and Mayorkas, warning against redefining such efforts.

→	Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us he will “listen carefully on the case for and against” impeaching Mayorkas, but typically has a high bar for impeachment. Bacon added that he thinks there’s been a clear dereliction of duty on the southern border.

Meanwhile, all 18 Republican members of the Homeland Security panel put out a statement on Thursday saying they back impeaching Mayorkas following the panel’s second hearing.

Democrats to watch: It’s no secret House Democrats are fired up about the border, as we reported last week. Fourteen Democrats joined Republicans to vote for a resolution this week that condemned the Biden administration’s “open border” policies.

But, we didn’t find any Democrats who back impeaching Mayorkas.

“It’s a political stunt. It’s not going anywhere,” said Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.).

Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, two Texas Democrats who are angry about the border crisis, also said they don’t see how impeaching Mayorkas solves the situation.

— Mica Soellner

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