The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The Canvass: hits, misses and predictions for next year

Next Congress will be more productive, Canvass predicts

119th Congress expected to prioritize taxes and inflation

Canvass accurately predicted GOP wins and leadership shifts

Foreign policy a top issue in 2025 as wars abroad rage on

THE TOP

The Canvass: hits, misses and predictions for next year

Welcome to the end-of-year edition of our survey, The Canvass. What’s unique this time is that we’re wrapping up one of the most chaotic and unproductive congressional sessions in recent memory.

We’re also closing the chapter on one very consequential president’s term and ushering in another that will no doubt be consequential too — and chaotic if past is prologue.

Throughout the year, our Canvass community, comprised of senior Capitol Hill aides and K Street leaders, has predicted key policy outcomes, GOP leadership woes, election results and more.

The year in summary: We started 2024 with a fairly new House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had been crowned only two months before the end of last year. A big concern at the time was whether Johnson could survive the rowdy right flank that had ousted his predecessor.

Throughout the year, Canvass respondents rightly predicted that Johnson would keep his job in 2024. He did, and it appears, he will stave off any challengers in 2025.

Still, lots of partisan chaos and intra-party fighting marred the final year of the 118th Congress and hindered its ability to turn bills into law. More on that later in this edition.

On the election front, we had some major hits and — much like the rest of the country — some oopses. No one needs a reminder of just how surprising President-elect Donald Trump’s landslide win was as well as the GOP managing to hold on to its House majority.

Next year will usher in a GOP trifecta that will certainly make for an interesting year for The Canvass.

In the meantime, here’s what we have for you in this edition of The Canvass Year-End Report.

Here is the full 2024 recap with help from our partners at LSG. You can also find the year’s top takeaways in a one-pager here.

Join the Canvass pool: We’d love to have you as part of our Canvass community. If you are a senior congressional staffer, sign up here to participate in The Canvass Capitol Hill. If you’re a leader downtown, sign up here to take part in The Canvass K Street.

— Elvina Nawaguna

119TH CONGRESS

Next Congress will be more productive, Canvass predicts

The 119th Congress will get more done than the current one, two-thirds of top Hill aides predict. That would follow a historically unproductive outgoing session that struggled with hyper-partisan gridlock and endless drama.

With Republicans fully in charge and President-elect Donald Trump back in the White House, the new Congress has a shot at getting more bills turned into law and helping Trump accomplish much of his agenda. Still, slim majorities and intra-party divisions could make things tricky and prove to be a real test for GOP unity and action.

No shortage of chaos: The outgoing Congress was at least productive in one area — theatrics. From leadership drama and intra-party fighting to recent culture wars over bathroom usage, there was a lot of chaos to go around.

As a reminder, the 118th Congress got off to a rough start with the embarrassing House speaker fight, where Republicans kicked out then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and left their chamber without a leader for weeks. That cost Congress precious legislative days.

McCarthy’s successor, Speaker Mike Johnson, had his own rocky start too. Johnson has had to grapple with the extreme right wing of his party, which would not excuse any sort of compromise with Democrats, making it tougher to pass bills.

Even with Republicans taking full control of all branches of government next year, Johnson will still have a tricky job on his hands. He’ll have to figure out how to balance the demands of the extreme right and the need to pass legislation.

Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) told Punchbowl News in November that midterm elections are already on people’s minds and Republicans will have to defend their small majority, possibly impacting how much they can get done even in a fully red Washington.

Trump 2.0: Most Canvass respondents (60%) predict that Trump will be effective in his second term in the White House.

The GOP’s full control of Congress and a majority conservative Supreme Court certainly mean Trump has a really good chance of implementing lasting and consequential policy.

In our November poll, 93% of Canvass respondents said they expect Trump, not Republican congressional leaders, to drive the agenda on Capitol Hill.

We’ll, of course, keep tabs on how things are going when we return next year.

— Samantha Bell

TOP PRIORITIES

119th Congress expected to prioritize taxes and inflation

The economy took center stage in the 2024 election, helping Republicans win landslide victories. Canvass respondents foretold that it would be the issue voters watched all year long.

The top two issues that respondents predicted would matter in the election were the economy and inflation, according to both our September survey of senior Hill staffers and our July poll of K Street leaders.

In the May edition of our survey of senior folks downtown, respondents cited the top three economic issues for voters as grocery and food prices, housing and rental costs, and gas prices — in that order.

Canvass respondents from Capitol Hill and the lobbying world saw Democrats entering the election with momentum. Still, these economic woes were ultimately salient concerns when Americans went to the polls. And that boosted Republicans in ousting the Democrats from the White House and the Senate.

What it means: After an economy-focused election, lawmakers are set to zero in on a whole lot more in that arena.

In our November survey, 76% of senior Hill aides said taxes would be among the 119th Congress’ top three priorities. Similarly, in our October K Street survey, 81% of respondents named taxes a top-three priority.

That makes sense with most of the Trump tax cuts expiring at the end of 2025. Plus, President-elect Donald Trump floated lots of new tax cuts on the campaign trail. Republicans are already debating how to pass Trump’s priorities and whether to move quickly on a tax bill or prioritize border security first.

It could, however, be a rocky road. Some House Republicans are worried that splitting off border funding and waiting to tackle tax cuts could run the risk of failing to get a tax bill to Trump’s desk after all.

Still, Hill aides have been feeling good about their odds. Nearly every top GOP aide who responded to our November survey said it’s likely that Congress will address the expiring 2017 tax cuts before they lapse at the end of 2025. Even 97% of Democrats agreed.

– Laura Weiss

CANVASS HITS

Canvass accurately predicted GOP wins and leadership shifts

Canvass respondents were spot-on with their predictions on major leadership transitions among Hill Republicans. That included their correct call on Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) succeeding Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as Senate GOP leader.

In February, most Capitol Hill respondents (59%) said 2024 would be McConnell’s final year as Senate Republican leader. On Feb. 28, he announced his decision to step aside after nearly two decades on the job.

The Senate: With the GOP sweeping control of both chambers and the White House, some Democrats were left shocked. But not our Canvass respondents, who anticipated the Republican Party’s takeover of the Senate.

Throughout the year, our surveys showed that Washington leaders on K Street and the Hill thought Republicans would control the upper chamber in 2025.

Canvass respondents also accurately predicted the outcomes of the most critical Senate races, including Democratic wins in Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan and Maryland, as well as the GOP gain in Montana.

The House: In February, most senior Hill staffers (74%) called Mike Johnson an ineffective speaker of the House — including 58% of Republicans. Johnson didn’t fare better when we asked K Street a month later. Despite the pessimism about Johnson’s efficacy, most on Capitol Hill believed he would get to keep his office for the remainder of the 118th Congress.

Not only did Johnson keep his gavel after a motion-to-vacate vote, the Louisiana Republican is on track to be reelected as speaker next month.

Shutdown: The deadline to keep the government funded is Friday. This should be a familiar feeling to Canvass respondents. Early in the year, both K Street and Capitol Hill respondents recognized the low likelihood of a government shutdown, which ultimately aligned with Congress’ ability to secure funding agreements.

Congress, it appears, is about to pass a continuing resolution that President Joe Biden will sign.

— Robert O’Shaughnessy

FOREIGN POLICY

Foreign policy a top issue in 2025 as wars abroad rage on

This year was a big year for foreign policy on the Hill, and our Canvass respondents were on top of the major developments.

The war in Ukraine continued with congressional Republicans divided on how to approach it. Democrats fought among themselves about the Israel-Hamas war as the conflict spread to nearby regions. All this while, conflicts continued in other parts of the world.

In April, Congress passed a major foreign aid package containing aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. Wide majorities of both K Street and Capitol Hill Canvass respondents predicted these outcomes.

Among top Hill staffers, 88% thought Israel aid would pass, 84% thought Ukraine aid would pass and 75% thought Taiwan aid would pass.

Among top lobbyists, 81% thought Israel aid would pass, 68% thought Ukraine aid would pass and 61% thought Taiwan aid would pass.

Israel: Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the simmering conflict with Iran, has dominated the headlines and occupied President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda.

More than two-thirds of top Capitol Hill staffers believe that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration will have more influence over Israel’s military actions than Biden did.

Ukraine: Trump has been insistent he wants a quick conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine. The embattled nation has been fighting back the Russian invasion for more than two years.

Just earlier in December — well before Inauguration Day — Trump called for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Still, 68% of Capitol Hill Canvass respondents contend that Trump’s victory will harm Ukraine’s efforts to win the war against Russia.

That finding aligns with Trump’s suggestion he would reduce military aid to Ukraine and the overall reluctance among Republicans to continue supporting that country’s war efforts.

— Max Cohen