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December 21, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
It’s going to be a huge day on Capitol Hill.
| → | Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address a joint session of Congress this evening. It’s Zelensky’s first known trip outside of Ukraine since February, when Russia launched the brutal invasion of its smaller neighbor. Zelensky will meet earlier in the day with President Joe Biden and top Cabinet and national security officials. Biden and Zelensky will hold a press conference as well. |
| → | Senate leaders are still trying to reach a time agreement to move the $1.66 trillion omnibus spending bill in the next day or two. The deal hasn’t come together yet, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are hoping it can today. |
A massive winter storm is bearing down on the Midwest and East Coast, and senators want to get home for the holidays. The omnibus package contains $45 billion in economic and military aid for Ukraine and NATO allies, so Zelensky’s visit comes at a critical time for House Republicans, who are being urged by their leadership to oppose the legislation.
| → | And the Jan. 6 select committee is scheduled to release its final report on the deadly attack on the Capitol at some point today. |
Ukraine: We scooped Tuesday afternoon that Zelensky was headed to Washington. Biden and Zelensky discussed the possibility of a Washington visit during a Dec. 11 call, and the invitation was formally extended by the White House on Dec. 14, according to a senior administration official. Zelensky accepted several days later. White House officials and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office began putting the details together over the weekend, with security of paramount importance, of course.
“Extensive planning” for this event goes back weeks, according to a Pelosi aide. The idea was first raised during a bilateral meeting in October between Pelosi and Speaker of the Ukrainian Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk in Zagreb. Pelosi had attended the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform in Croatia, at the invitation of Zelensky and Stefanchuk.
In a Tuesday letter from congressional leadership formally inviting Zelensky to speak, Pelosi said, “America and the world are in awe of the heroism of the Ukrainian people. In the face of Putin’s horrific atrocities, Ukrainian freedom fighters have inspired the world with an iron will and an unbreakable spirit – fighting back against Russia’s brutal, unjustified invasion.”
The address to a joint session is a fitting coda both for this Congress and Pelosi, who will step down from the House Democratic leadership at the end of this session. Pelosi visited Ukraine and helped shepherd much of the U.S. aid for that embattled country through Congress.
Zelensky’s visit to the Capitol is in many ways a natural progression for the Ukrainian leader, whose nation has benefited greatly from U.S. assistance that has only been possible because of bipartisan cooperation in Congress. Later today, for example, Biden is slated to announce the transfer of a Patriot missile battery and precision bombs as part of a fresh $1.8 billion infusion to the Ukrainian military.
Zelensky’s address – tentatively scheduled for 7:30 p.m. – is one of the most meaningful in years. He’s not the first world leader to address lawmakers while their country is engulfed in war. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill did so in the midst of World War II, while Iraqi and Afghan leaders also made similar speeches in recent years.
Yet Zelensky has become a global symbol of Ukrainian courage and determination in the face of overwhelming odds. His country has withstood 300 days of attacks from Russian forces and remains unconquered.
War fatigue is real here in D.C., however, especially among House Republicans. GOP lawmakers from the top down to the rank-and-file have openly questioned the continued flow of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine.
Zelensky’s visit will be a huge boost for senior Republicans like McConnell and retiring Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio), who have actively sought to tamp down the “isolationist” streak in their party. In many ways, that’s Zelensky’s goal — to rally support for the Western coalition against Russia at a time when it’s seeing some cracks both at home and abroad.
This push will not, however, dissuade conservatives who see U.S. aid to Ukraine as a case of misplaced priorities. When Zelensky addresses Congress tonight, we’ll be looking to see who doesn’t show up.
One more note: The Senate will vote today on the nomination of Lynne Tracy to be U.S. ambassador to Russia. Tracy – who would be the first woman to hold this high-profile post – previously served as deputy chief of mission in Moscow. A career Foreign Service officer, Tracy is currently U.S. ambassador to Armenia. She would replace John Sullivan, who recently stepped down.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio
THE REST OF TODAY’S MADNESS
Senate trying to wrap up omnibus, Jan. 6 panel preps report release
Senate leaders are scrambling to finish work on the nearly $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package, perhaps as early as today.
On Tuesday night, 21 Senate Republicans voted to begin debate on the omnibus spending bill. The vote was 70-25. This is a very positive sign for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, who have been leading GOP efforts to pass the measure.
The key here will be how long GOP conservatives drag out the process knowing Christmas is Sunday, a big winter storm is about to hit much of the country and supporters have already shown they have 70 votes. We imagine the bill will be through the Senate today or tomorrow.
Nine amendments were “hotlined” late Tuesday night. This list includes proposals to get rid of earmarks, end financial support for transporting migrants and extended federal coverage to victims of the 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Beirut. We’ll have more on this today.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be able to push the bill through the House in just one day as soon as the Senate passes it.
Jan. 6: We scooped on Tuesday that the select committee has begun turning over documents and transcripts to federal investigators following a request by special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the twin criminal probes into former President Donald Trump. On Monday, the select committee released the executive summary of its final report and approved criminal referrals to DOJ on Trump and his allies.
Today marks the release of the select committee’s final report, which is roughly 1,000 pages long. It will still take the panel several more days to complete the release of all the evidence in its possession.
Year-end staff move: Anna Taylor, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s director of economic policy, will be leaving the majority leader’s office at the end of the year for a private-sector job.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE QUEST FOR 218
The new power dynamic: McCarthy vs. the Senate GOP
In normal times, House and Senate Republicans would at least pretend that they’re going to be unified going into a Congress in which they have control of at least one chamber of Congress.
Not this time.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and his GOP colleagues are threatening to go to war with the Senate Republicans during the 118th Congress, undermining any hope that the party will come together over the next two years.
Let’s take Tuesday as a prime example of how divided the GOP is.
McCarthy tweeted that he’d block the legislative priority of any senator who votes for the $1.66 trillion omnibus package being supported by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Hours later, 21 Senate Republicans summarily ignored McCarthy’s threat and voted to begin debate on the omnibus measure. Test votes of this nature are good predictors of how lawmakers will vote on final passage.
If McCarthy holds true to his word, that means he would have to block spending bills, a priority of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is slated to be the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee. It also means he’ll have to oppose immigration bills offered by border hawks such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). McCarthy wouldn’t be able to consider sanctions bills offered by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) or energy legislation authored by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
Not to mention, McConnell and Senate Minority Whip John Thune also voted to advance the spending package.
In other words, McCarthy is promising to ignore the core of the Senate Republican Conference. That doesn’t seem terribly sustainable, although his operation says it is. Furthermore, McCarthy allies say he’s intent on trying to defeat the omnibus package, although that seems very, very difficult at this point.
Of course, McCarthy is in the middle of a fight to become speaker on Jan. 3, so he has to take pains to tack as far to the right as possible.
To that end, we wouldn’t be surprised to see McCarthy give a long floor speech opposing the omnibus. There’s even been talk of McCarthy attending a Senate GOP steering lunch this week to express his opposition to the omnibus.
The chasm between the Senate and House GOP does have the potential to weaken McCarthy’s hand in 2023. The White House will probably support deals between McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and then try to jam McCarthy. McCarthy vows he won’t be jammed. Remember: McCarthy’s hand is further damaged because of the House’s discharge petition process, which forces a bill to the floor if it has the support of 218 members. Democrats will be looking to pick up some vulnerable Republicans on these petitions.
McCarthy knows that Senate Democrats will oppose much of what the House passes, but publicly threatening his GOP allies is a risky long-term strategy.
For what it’s worth, McConnell was asked Tuesday if he supports McCarthy’s bid for speaker. Here’s what he had to say: “Absolutely. I’m pulling for Kevin. I hope he makes it.”
– Jake Sherman
LAST GASP
Ways and Means votes to release Trump’s taxes
The House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday voted to release former President Donald Trump’s tax returns and related IRS audit information following hours of behind-closed-doors deliberations. The internal committee vote brought an end to Ways and Means Committee Chair Rep. Richie Neal’s (D-Mass.) years-long mission to get hold of Trump’s tax returns.
A major finding: The IRS’ mandatory presidential audit program was “dormant,” according to a committee report. “The IRS only opened one mandatory examination from 2017 to 2020 for returns filed while the former President was in office,” the report reads. The IRS only began to audit Trump the same day that Ways and Means Democrats requested his tax information in 2019. Check out the full document here.
That report further states that Trump took “a questionable $916 million deduction, using a grantor trust to control assets, manipulating tax code provisions pertaining to real estate taxes, and extensively using pass-through entities.”
Neal told reporters that the public likely won’t see some materials for a couple of days due to a rigorous redaction process.
Ways and Means Republicans, led by Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the ranking member, accused Democrats of unleashing “a dangerous new political weapon” by opening up an individual’s tax returns to the public.
“Going forward, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee will have nearly unlimited power to target and make public the tax returns of private citizens,” Brady said.
Of course, Congress possesses the authority to release private tax returns. In the early 1970s, the committee investigated then-President Richard Nixon’s tax deductions and released information related to the probe. The GOP-controlled Ways and Means Committee in 2014 also released thousands of pages of internal IRS documents as part of the Lois Lerner investigation.
The House is scheduled to vote this week on legislation from Neal – the Presidential Tax Filings and Audit Transparency Act – that would codify these IRS regulations into law.
The Coverage:
| → | NYT: “Trump Paid $1.1 Million in Taxes During Presidency, but $0 in 2020, Report Shows,” by Mike McIntire, Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig |
— Max Cohen
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INSIDE THE PAGES
The most interesting provisions in the omnibus
A year-end omnibus is often referred to as the last train out of the station. In other words, this gigantic 4,100-plus page bill is the final big legislative vehicle that the 117th Congress will pass. So there’s a lot in here that’s extraneous to the basic functions of funding the federal government.
So this morning, we wanted to highlight a few of the most interesting provisions.
| → | Division O, Sec. 202: The bill has a correction that allows current enrollees in service academies to become a professional athlete instead of serving in the military. This is, at least in part, aimed at Army linebacker Andre Carter II, a highly-touted pro prospect. |
The recently passed FY2023 defense authorization bill closed a loophole that allowed athletes to defer their military service in order to play professional sports.
The omnibus, however, revises that and allows athletes who entered one of the service academies before June 1, 2021, to go ahead and play pro sports while holding off on their military requirements. Students that enrolled after that date will be required to complete their military service first.
| → | Division O, Title III: Four immigration provisions were extended as part of this package. |
No. 1: The legislation extends the e-Verify program.
No. 2: The package extends a program for “non-minister religious workers.”
No. 3: The “Conrad 30” program, which allows rural healthcare workers access to the United States, is extended.
No. 4: DHS is allowed to issue H2-B visas beyond the caps for low-skilled workers.
| → | Division O, Sec. 404: This provision renames the Lake Champlain Basin regional watershed program as the “Patrick Leahy Lake Champlain Basin Program.” It also provides the program with $35 million each year until 2027. Nice to be the retiring Senate Appropriations Committee chair! |
| → | Division Q, Sec. 103: If there were a “hostile nuclear detonation” and insurance policies for airlines were canceled and their fleets grounded, the FAA could provide temporary insurance for 90 days. |
| → | Division Q, Sec. 107: This allows fractionally owned private jet carriers to set an age cap for pilots at 70. |
| → | Division AA, Title VII: The omnibus awards Ben Ferencz, the oldest living Nuremberg prosecutor, the Congressional Gold Medal. |
| → | Division AA, Title IX: The National Flood Insurance Program is extended until Sept. 30, 2023. |
– Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Turnout exceeded expectations in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Virginia’s 4th District. The firehouse primary, which was only announced on Dec. 12, was conducted to select the Democratic nominee for the special election to fill the late Rep. Donald McEachin’s (D-Va.) seat. The results of the race are expected to be released later today. |
More than 26,000 voters cast ballots in the primary, according to local officials. State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who would become Virginia’s first Black congresswoman, is heavily favored to beat her main challenger, state Sen. Joseph Morrissey. McClellan received endorsements from a wide swath of Democrats ahead of the primary, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Virginia Democratic Reps. Don Beyer, Jennifer Wexton and Gerry Connolly.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Leon Benjamin Sr., who received the GOP’s nomination on Saturday. The special election to fill the vacant seat will be held on Feb. 21. This is a heavily Democratic district.
— Max Cohen
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Punchbowl News Presents
By transforming bill tracking and floor action with expert analysis from the Punchbowl News team, The Portal delivers concise, curated insights that cut through the noise, helping policy leaders win. Request a demo today.