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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
There are 17 days until a partial government shutdown. Congress returns to town next week.
While things in Washington are slow, we thought it would be useful to lay out the most important storylines this year. We’re going to stay intently focused on the politics of governing and legislating in the nation’s capital. Clearly, the 2024 election is the biggest political story of the year. But we’re also drilling down on the other key plotlines for the coming weeks and months.
Government funding. The most immediate challenge Congress has to deal with is a pair of government funding deadlines during the next month. As we reported in the AM edition Monday, there’s no FY2024 topline funding deal yet.
Speaker Mike Johnson has said he doesn’t want to pass another short-term stopgap funding resolution. And conservatives hate omnibus packages. But there’s very little chance that Congress can pass 12 separate spending bills by the dual Jan. 19 and Feb. 2 deadlines. So something has to give.
The border crisis. Nearly everyone we talk to in Washington understands that the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border is both a humanitarian and political disaster. There are thousands of migrants crossing the border every day. But leaders on Capitol Hill and President Joe Biden face serious difficulties in getting an agreement to stem the flow of migrants for a variety of reasons.
Johnson, who will be in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Wednesday, has effectively said that he won’t accept anything less than H.R. 2, the hardline House GOP border and immigration bill.
Of course, the Senate would never take up H.R. 2. And Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has encouraged bipartisan border discussions that include top Biden administration officials. But even if this group reaches a tentative agreement, Johnson and House Republicans will be incredibly cool to it.
The future for Ukraine aid. The whole world knows that the fate of Ukraine as a sovereign nation likely depends on Congress’ ability to strike a deal to resolve the U.S.-Mexico border crisis.
If that weren’t daunting enough for Kyiv, the pro-Ukraine Republican is becoming a rare breed on the Hill. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has made it his mission to press for robust U.S. support for Ukraine, but his view isn’t winning support from Hill Republicans nor the party at large.
Congress hasn’t approved new Ukraine aid for more than a year now. And even though the border talks are progressing, it’s unclear whether the United States will be able to follow through on Biden’s oft-stated promise to sustain Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”
Aid to Israel. One of the most controversial decisions that Johnson made since taking over as speaker was tying $14 billion in Israel aid to IRS funding cuts. That decision — coupled with Schumer’s decision to group Israel with Ukraine and Taiwan, and Republicans’ subsequent border-security demands — has led to a stalemate.
But as we noted on Monday, the Biden administration is moving to supply Israel with some weapons without Congress’ approval. The pressing question is whether Hill leaders will look to move Israel aid as a standalone with the situation in the Middle East becoming more precarious.
2024 race for Congress. The focus in coming weeks will be former President Donald Trump’s bid to win the GOP presidential nod, as well as Biden’s vulnerability. But the House and Senate are truly up for grabs this year.
The field of competitive seats in the House has shrunk, although it’s a bit too early to say Republicans or Democrats have a definitive advantage in November. Our friends at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter say there are just 24 toss-up seats in the House. New York and North Carolina haven’t finalized their maps. Georgia, Alabama and possibly Florida and Louisiana may add minority-majority seats favoring Democrats. Democrats are well-positioned to make a serious bid to win the House.
Over in the Senate, Republicans are still favored to retake the majority. Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in red states like Montana and Ohio. Arizona is a mystery; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) — who’s involved in the border talks — hasn’t said whether she’s running again. West Virginia is already certain to flip to the GOP with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement.
But Democrats could benefit from a poor slate of GOP candidates in some states. This has been Republicans’ perpetual downfall in the Trump era. Senate GOP leaders have openly lined up behind their favored candidates in key states, so we’ll see if that works.
Trump. We’re about to hear a lot more from — and about — the former president in the coming days. If that’s possible. The GOP presidential primary season officially kicks off in two weeks, and Trump is in position to run away with the nomination. Trump will also be in federal and state court throughout this period.
You don’t need us to tell you that Trump’s grasp on the GOP remains as firm as ever. That means he effectively has the power to shape the direction of Congress’ priorities this year.
It’ll be difficult for GOP leaders like Johnson to ignore Trump’s inevitable musings on the supplemental package, for instance, which conservatives will undoubtedly pan as weak on border security. If the Senate nears a deal to unlock Ukraine aid and Trump comes out against it, it may be impossible for Johnson to bring it up in the House.
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS
It is President Biden’s turn to deliver for the Postal Service. The Biden Administration needs to use its authority to rectify the half-century-old unfair pension obligations negatively impacting postal workers and postal ratepayers. This is a simple fix, and the Administration can act immediately, but they keep stalling the solution and sweeping the problem under the rug. Let’s stop the raid on the USPS pension fund.
BORDER WARS
Migrant crisis roils big cities as Hill talks grind on
Even as the bipartisan talks over border security and immigration continue on Capitol Hill, the continuing wave of migrants arriving in large northern cities is changing the political dynamics surrounding the high-profile issue.
After New York City officials threatened to seize buses carrying migrants into the city if they failed to follow certain rules last week, hundreds of asylum seekers were dropped off in New Jersey over the weekend, where they sought to take trains onto New York.
And in Chicago, a plane full of migrants arrived at an airport near the city at 1 a.m. Sunday and were “then placed on buses chartered by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and dropped in various surrounding suburbs, left to find their way to the city,” according to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Johnson said there was “no communication” from Texas officials about the migrants, including their arrival on a private plane.
Abbott has dramatically shifted the immigration debate by dispatching buses carrying tens of thousands of asylum seekers caught crossing the U.S.-Mexico border to cities across the country.
The tactic has made a huge impact in New York City and other major metropolitan areas far from the border. New York City Mayor Eric Adams, for instance, has complained that more than 7,000 migrants entered the city’s intake system in just the last two weeks. That’s part of more than 150,000 migrants who arrived in New York City since spring 2023, with more than 60,000 still receiving city services.
Adams has slammed Abbott for using the migrants as “political pawns” in the immigration and border security debate, but he’s also appealed for more federal help to deal with the inflow. Abbott’s office countered that big-city mayors — many of them Democrats — are hypocrites for refusing to support a tougher stance on border security.
Faced with a historic surge of asylum seekers trying to enter the United States, Abbott has signed a new Texas law that allows state law enforcement agencies to arrest undocumented immigrants. Pro-immigration groups immediately challenged the law in court, arguing that Abbott is clearly violating federal law by usurping federal authority over immigration and border security.
Abbott is also spending more than $1 billion in state money to build a new fence along parts of Texas’ long border with Mexico.
The bipartisan congressional talks being led by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) continued throughout the holiday recess, although there is no sign of a breakthrough at this point. The issue has become merged with the ongoing debate over U.S. aid to Ukraine as Republicans refuse to approve more funding for that embattled ally unless Democrats agree to new border security and immigration measures.
Speaker Mike Johnson will be heading to the border this week with a group of House Republicans. Johnson has been pushing for Congress to pass H.R. 2, the House GOP’s hardline immigration-and-border-security bill. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas will also visit the border this week.
— John Bresnahan
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS
Unfair pension obligations affect the cost borne by American postal ratepayers. Let’s stop the raid.
BEHIND THE SCENES
Butler’s cash, Mucarsel-Powell’s post-Congress life and Rogers’ lineup
Ever wonder what the head of EMILY’s List earns each year? Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) just filed her financial disclosure form, and she made $700,000 from serving as president of the group.
Butler, who California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed to fill the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat, is not running for election in 2024.
Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.), who is running against Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), reported she made $479,554 in 2022 and 2023 — after she lost her seat in the House. Mucarsel-Powell reported consulting work for the Roseman University of Health Sciences in Nevada, Third Way and served as a fellow at the George Washington University. She was also paid $3,900 for appearing on Telemundo.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who is running for the nomination to take on Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) for the Senate, has racked up a long lineup of board seats and consulting clients. For example, Rogers reported having made $460,000 from Nokia, $191,056 from the Mitre Corporation, $137,000 from IAP Worldwide Services and $724,887 from IronNet Cybersecurity.
— Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
Good Fight, one of the outside groups supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ bid for the GOP nomination, has a new 60-second bio spot running across Iowa. The ad is a straight-to-camera ad by Casey DeSantis, the governor’s wife.
The first lady of Florida talks about DeSantis supporting her during her fight against cancer.
DeSantis is down more than 30 points to former President Donald Trump in most Iowa polls.
— Jake Sherman
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Tesla inked Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck to lobby. Geoff Burr, the former chief of staff for the Department of Transportation during the Trump administration, and Gregory Sunstrum, the former chief of staff to Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), will lobby for the automaker.
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS
Now is the time for action President Biden! Let’s stop the raid.
MOMENTS
All times Eastern.
9 a.m.: The House will meet in a pro forma session … President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
5:45 p.m.: Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will depart St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, en route to Joint Base Andrews.
9:45 p.m.: The Bidens will depart Andrews for the White House, arriving at 9:55 p.m.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “In 2024, Expect New Debates on A.I., Gender and Guns,” by Rick Rojas |
→ | “LaPierre, Longtime N.R.A. Leader, Faces Trial That Could End His Reign,” by Danny Hakim in New York |
→ | “Putin Vows to Keep Up Bombardment After a Russian City Is Hit,” by Anatoly Kurmanaev and Constant Méheut |
→ | “South Korean Opposition Leader Is Stabbed,” by Choe Sang-Hun in Seoul |
WaPo
→ | “In Haley’s home state, some Republicans point fingers inward on race, history,” by Meryl Kornfield in Charleston, S.C. |
Bloomberg
→ | “Iran Sends Warship to Red Sea After US Sinks Houthi Boats,” by Sam Dagher and Arsalan Shahla |
AP
→ |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF LETTER CARRIERS
It is President Biden’s turn to deliver for the Postal Service. The Administration needs to use the legal authority it was granted by Congress to rectify an issue that hurts this immense workforce of public servants. OPM’s flawed methodology added an astounding $3 billion to Postal Service expenses in 2023 and accounted for nearly half of last year’s net loss. Failure to stop the raid on Postal pension funds will not only adversely affect the USPS but also impact the millions of Americans who depend on its services. All it takes is a phone call, it’s time for President Biden to prove his “pro-labor” agenda doesn’t exclude postal workers. Let’s stop the raid.
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