The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
December 5, 2023
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to speak to senators remotely during a classified briefing this afternoon. And the No. 2 Ukrainian official in that country’s presidential line of succession — Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament — will be at the Capitol today to meet with lawmakers in both parties and both chambers.
But let’s be clear about what the Ukrainian leaders are walking into, literally and figuratively — a legislative “dumpster fire” with enormously high stakes for Washington, Kyiv and beyond.
On Monday, it became obvious just how messy things really are — on several fronts.
Setting the stage: The White House and lawmakers from both parties are warning that Ukraine’s military will almost certainly suffer battlefield losses to the Russians if new U.S. aid isn’t approved before the end of December.
Republicans, however, are conditioning their support for Ukrainian aid on Democrats and President Joe Biden accepting policy changes to address the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Partisan sniping: As we first reported, Senate Democrats walked away from the border negotiations on Friday night after concluding that Republicans were unwilling to meet them in the middle. The two sides didn’t negotiate at all over the weekend as a result.
But on Monday, the lead GOP negotiator, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), disputed the idea that the talks suffered a setback. This came even as the top Democratic negotiator, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), insisted the two sides weren’t currently negotiating and hadn’t since Friday. Republicans sent a counter-proposal Monday night in an effort to revive the talks.
And Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who’s also involved in the border talks, appeared to clap back Monday at Democrats’ suggestions that Republicans were proposing extreme measures.
To be sure, both sides are posturing ahead of a likely procedural vote Wednesday on Biden’s $105 billion foreign aid request. The vote is expected to fail given that the aid package — which covers Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — won’t include GOP border demands.
Of course, a failed vote would send a horrible signal to Ukraine and U.S. allies globally, especially after Ukraine’s top leaders appeal directly to senators for help. Murphy said flatly this is “a really dangerous moment” for the Senate.
“I think the world needs to be very concerned about what’s happening here,” Murphy told us. “Republicans have decided to hold Ukraine funding hostage to a domestic political priority that is among the hardest in American politics to solve.”
Yet Senate Republicans believe a failed cloture vote could be exactly what’s needed to reinvigorate the talks. GOP senators have been telling us that Democrats will eventually come around simply because of the urgency of passing new Ukraine funding.
“It’s a point of leverage,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “There’s a supermajority of people who want this [foreign] aid to go forward, and we think this is an opportunity for us.”
Zelensky’s and Stefanchuk’s entreaties will undoubtedly contribute to that sense of urgency felt by both parties.
Republicans vs. each other: There are also some serious fissures emerging between House and Senate Republicans over their strategy for securing border policy changes.
Speaker Mike Johnson has already told Senate Republicans he won’t put a bill on the House floor that groups Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border security together. Johnson has also warned the other Big Four Hill leaders that he can’t pair Ukraine with anything less than H.R. 2, the House GOP border security bill, as we scooped Monday.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell favors a comprehensive approach to foreign aid and border security, and his negotiators aren’t insisting on H.R. 2. McConnell is getting critical backup from some Senate Republicans who are now openly questioning Johnson’s strategy.
“H.R. 2 didn’t get a single Democrat vote in the House,” Lankford noted. “I have to get 20 Democrat votes here [in the Senate]. If the House is going to say it has to be our bill that we got zero Democrats on but I need you to go get 20 over in your body, that’s not rational. That’s not how things work.”
“That’s good — he’ll get what we send him,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), another GOP negotiator, quipped when asked about Johnson’s position.
Here’s what Senate Republicans are telling us: If the House GOP strategy is “H.R. 2 or bust,” that essentially guarantees U.S. aid for Ukraine will end. But that’s what many of Johnson’s House GOP colleagues want anyway.
Johnson fed into this narrative on Monday when he wrote on X that House Republicans have “legitimate concerns about the lack of a clear strategy in Ukraine, a path to resolving the conflict, or a plan for adequately ensuring accountability for aid provided by American taxpayers.” McConnell, of course, has rebutted many of these arguments.
Here’s the bottom line: The fate of Ukraine aid comes down to whether McConnell and Johnson can find a sweet spot on border policy that can satiate the party’s base and appease Democrats and the White House while clearing Congress before the end of the year.
— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
Join us tomorrow! Sen. John Thune (R-S.D) joins Punchbowl News founder Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio for an interview on news of the day, tech policy and the latest on the 2024 presidential and congressional campaigns. RSVP now to join the conversation at 9 a.m. ET.
THE SPEAKER
Johnson hopes for topline funding deal by midweek
Speaker Mike Johnson has told House colleagues that he expects negotiators to release a topline spending number toward the middle of this week, according to multiple sources.
This is a drum we’re going to keep beating: The first tranche of government spending expires in 45 days (Jan. 19), with the remaining federal agencies — including the Pentagon — running out of money on Feb. 2. The House and Senate are only scheduled to be in session for another seven days this month. And then lawmakers leave for Christmas and New Year’s Day. The Senate returns Jan. 8, while the House is back the following day. There are only 10 days at that point until the first shutdown deadline.
The House has all but given up on passing any more appropriations bills — after promising to do so. Infighting among House Republicans over their GOP-only bills limited them to passing seven of 12 bills.
Over in the Senate, there’s real pessimism about whether senators will ever vote on another FY2024 funding bill, an extraordinary dynamic given how bipartisan the Senate’s process was inside the Appropriations Committee.
You’ll recall that the first Senate three-bill minibus — which included the least controversial of the 12 bills — took more than a month to pass because conservatives objected to the idea of grouping them together. This prevented the Senate from reaching an agreement on amendment votes. It finally got resolved and the minibus was approved overwhelmingly.
But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hasn’t put any of the other nine appropriations bills on the floor since that vote, which was more than a month ago. Democratic leaders point to GOP intransigence preventing an orderly and timely process. But Republican appropriators are suggesting Schumer has given up completely.
“I’m wondering whether the leader has any intention of doing any more appropriations bills,” Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told us. “And I just don’t know the answer to that question.”
— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio
FISA WATCH
Lawmakers juggle FISA details as deadline looms
Senate negotiators are still aiming to get a clean extension of FISA into the annual defense authorization bill, despite House Republicans moving forward with their own version of the high-stakes legislation.
An eclectic bipartisan group of members led by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), as well as Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), the panel’s ranking member, introduced a new FISA reform proposal on Monday. That puts them on a collision course with the Senate, White House, Justice Department and U.S. intelligence agencies. Section 702 of FISA and other provisions will expire at the end of this year.
Across the Capitol, senators are working out details on what a short-term FISA extension would look like as part of the NDAA. Negotiators are expected to release legislative text for the annual defense authorization bill as early as tonight.
“That’s the negotiation that is going on, primarily between the Judiciary Committee and the Intel Committee,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) told us.
The Justice Department and the Director of National Intelligence Office sent a letter on Monday night to Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), along with GOP Sens. John Cornyn (Texas) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.), highlighting the importance of renewing FISA.
The letter, obtained by Punchbowl News, states that Section 702 is “vital for insights into foreign terrorist organizations, including Hamas,” citing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. DOJ officials also object to a major change being pushed by the House.
FISA remains a hugely divisive issue in Congress. Both conservatives and progressives have civil liberty concerns about extending Section 702 authority without significant changes to the law.
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) — long a FISA critic — said he hasn’t been engaged with the Senate talks but doesn’t see a clean extension being possible with the level of opposition on the Hill.
“We’re going the distance with reform. Business as usual is not going to be acceptable,” Wyden told us. “When I started, it was pretty lonely. You could have meetings about 702 reform operations in a couple of phone booths. And I’m looking around now and I’m seeing a lot of allies.”
The House view: Jordan and House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) met with Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday night to discuss FISA reforms.
Johnson is sharing very little with his leadership team about what his plans are for FISA. Last week, Johnson voiced support for a temporary FISA extension until early February, lining it up with the second government funding deadline.
But that would put Johnson at odds with conservatives — chiefly the House Freedom Caucus — who see reforming FISA as a top priority. Jordan and some in leadership, including Majority Leader Steve Scalise, want changes to the law as well. In addition, conservatives are already skeptical about some policies in the NDAA — and Johnson’s team has cautioned leadership about attaching FISA to the defense policy bill.
To that end, the House Judiciary Committee will hold its markup on their bill — dubbed the Protect Liberty and End Warrantless Surveillance Act — starting at 10 a.m. on Wednesday. The legislation would reauthorize Section 702 for three years but with major revisions.
The House bill would require all intelligence agencies and the FBI to obtain a warrant from a FISA court before reviewing communications involving any U.S. person caught up in an investigation. It would also reduce the number of FBI officials allowed to make such queries of information collected under 702.
Additionally, federal agencies couldn’t purchase data on Americans from Big Tech companies without a warrant, said Biggs.
“Without serious reforms to FISA 702, our Fourth Amendment rights will be all but gone,” Biggs said in a statement. “My legislation addresses numerous loopholes in federal law to end this unconstitutional practice and to ensure rogue agents are held accountable.”
The House Intelligence Committee will hold its markup on Thursday morning, though few details have been released about its proposal. However, we do expect it to be a different version than Judiciary’s proposal.
Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Jim Himes (D-Conn.) told us last week he opposed his colleagues’ arguments to revamp FISA, emphasizing that any lapse in the law would impact national security.
But there’s a growing list of 50-plus lawmakers who have publicly said they won’t support a short-term clean FISA extension. Last week, a bipartisan group wrote to Democratic and GOP leadership to raise their concerns about taking such action.
— Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan
… AND THERE’S MORE
A source flagged this unique fundraising appeal sent by Speaker Mike Johnson on behalf of the NRCC. It’s no secret that Johnson is a cultural conservative. But this email hits some pretty interesting notes.
Some notable excerpts:
Read the full email here.
Some New Dems updates: Now that New Dem member Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) is a newly elected member of the DPCC, Rep. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) is replacing Trahan in the New Dems’ leadership.
W.H. economic messaging: There’s been plenty of talk recently of the merits — or lack thereof — of “Bidenomics.”
But here’s some actual news of how the White House is messaging on the economy this holiday season: the Small Business Administration is launching an outreach push encouraging Americans to support small businesses during the holiday season.
Democrats want to tout the growth in small businesses during President Joe Biden’s time in office and see this holiday campaign as a follow-up to Small Business Saturday last week.
— Max Cohen
The latest quarterly edition of The Vault, our financial services newsletter, lands today. Check in later this morning for our Washington-to-Wall Street pipeline, featuring an exclusive interview with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. We also explore how the credit card wars are playing out, the latest on crypto and, of course, who’s up and who’s down in the financial world.
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo has donated ~$2 billion over the last five years to help build a sustainable, inclusive future for all by supporting housing affordability, small business growth, financial health, and other community needs. What we say, we do. See how.