Inside Thune's health care decision day

IN THIS EDITION

Republicans’ health care spiral

Texas races mired in messy primaries

Cuellar to get his Approps post back

The Vault: Democrats move to ban Trump dollar coin

House Dem leadership names AI commission

THE TOP

Republicans’ health care spiral

Happy Tuesday morning.

News: A bipartisan group of House members is introducing a bill to extend the enhanced Obamacare subsidies for two years with new income limits and anti-fraud measures.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is leading the effort, along with GOP Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) and Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), plus Democratic Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Tom Suozzi (N.Y.), Don Davis (N.C.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.). The legislation — summarized here — would also crack down on pharmacy benefit managers and expand health savings accounts.

The bipartisan group is considering trying to force a House vote through a discharge petition. And they have a legislative vehicle they could use to speed up the process.

Yet using a discharge petition would be a long shot. It’s not clear if House Democratic leadership would back this compromise, which would need heavy support from their side to succeed. But lawmakers seeking an ACA patch — even if it can’t happen until after the subsidies expire on Dec. 31 — are turning to last-ditch plans as the deadline approaches.

Senate ‘show’ votes. Senate Republican leaders are set to decide after today’s lunch meeting whether to hold a vote on a GOP-drafted alternative to Thursday’s planned vote on Democrats’ bill extending the Obamacare subsidies for three years.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune made news Monday evening when he backed a proposal from Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and HELP Committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.).

Crapo told us that he and Cassidy assembled a plan they believe can get the widest backing from GOP senators, who so far haven’t been able to unite behind a single proposal. If enough Senate Republicans back the Crapo-Cassidy approach, that could push Thune to hold a separate vote on it on Thursday. Senators and aides still believe Thune is unlikely to go that route.

But Thune has been under a ton of pressure from those GOP senators who want to be able to vote on an alternative to the Democrats’ bill.

“What signal will it send if Republicans say, ‘Aw man, we’re going to say no to the Democrats’ plan but we’re not going to offer anything,’” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who left open the possibility of voting for the Democratic bill. “The message that will send is: ‘Good luck to the American people and we don’t really care.’”

Yet make no mistake about it — neither the Democratic bill nor the Crapo-Cassidy bill will become law.

It’s also difficult to see how a true bipartisan negotiation could begin after these messaging exercises fizzle out, especially with the Senate likely to need all of next week to pass the annual defense policy bill before the holiday recess begins.

Senators are skeptical of January action, and the floor could be jammed up with appropriations bills by that time. Government funding runs out Jan. 30.

While Thune is trying to frame the Crapo-Cassidy bill as a starting point for bipartisan negotiations, Democrats have long panned the very foundation of the proposal as a non-starter and even fought to remove similar provisions from the GOP reconciliation bill.

But Thune seems to be banking on a re-run of the sequence that ended the recent government shutdown — rank-and-file Democrats breaking from their leadership to join Republicans. Thune said this week’s messaging exercises are “leadership-driven” and that Democrats’ position is “untenable.”

It’s unlikely that enough Democrats would be willing to break with their party to support something resembling the Crapo-Cassidy bill, even if Republicans were offering to add a short-term pared-back ACA extension.

On top of that, restrictions on the use of federal funds for abortion services continue to be a major impediment to a bipartisan compromise.

A separate Senate GOP plan unveiled this week by Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) — a two-year Obamacare extension with income caps and other reforms — doesn’t include any abortion language, which is turning off many Republicans.

This idea also highlights Republican divisions over the broader legislative strategy. The Crapo-Cassidy bill essentially creates a new system without a gradual wind-down of the Obamacare subsidies. Moreno said Congress should address the narrow issue of the looming subsidy cliff before doing anything else.

“We’re pretty much in concert [with Crapo-Cassidy]… But we have to solve these Biden bonuses first and then do some of the things that can be done,” Moreno told us. “Let’s just fix this hyper-specific thing.”

In the House. Most of the House Republican leadership seems befuddled over why Speaker Mike Johnson promised to pass a health care bill this month. But the GOP leadership may just have to make it happen. There are strong political incentives in trying to vote on something when health care premiums are about to spike for millions of Americans.

The tentative leadership plan seems to be to unveil some of the contours of the health-care proposal during the House Republican Conference meeting on Wednesday morning.

As of now, the House GOP health care effort seems to center around a bill that would expand HSAs, reform PBMs, institute risk pools for health insurance plans and put in place cost-sharing reductions, according to multiple sources close to the discussions.

The House GOP leadership still hasn’t decided whether their plan will extend the expiring Obamacare subsidies. This seems to be a sticking point at the moment. There’s a chance that the House GOP leadership bails on its plans to pass a bill if the Senate declines to move on a GOP plan.

NDAA latest. House Republican leadership is somewhat concerned about the NDAA this week. It’ll be on the floor Wednesday. Getting the rule passed will be a challenge. House GOP leadership is leaving open the possibility of passing the measure on suspension if they can’t get a rule. Suspension would require two-thirds for passage.

— Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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THE LONE STAR STATE

Texas races mired in messy primaries

Senate GOP leaders worked for months to stop the slow-motion train wreck of their Texas primary.

First, they spent millions of dollars on an expensive TV ad blitz designed to boost incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Then they tried to avoid a three-way primary with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas).

None of it worked.

Despite tens of millions in spending to rehab Cornyn’s standing with conservative voters, Paxton remains, at worst, neck-and-neck with the incumbent. Other polls show Paxton with a more significant lead among primary voters.

And after months of trashing Hunt publicly and privately — as well as a concerted pressure campaign to cut off his donors — Senate leadership couldn’t get him out of the Senate race.

Here’s Senate Majority Leader John Thune on their conundrum:

Now the GOP fight will drag on even longer, likely past the March primary and into a May runoff.

By the time Texas’ filing deadline came on Monday, it was clear the three Republicans were solidly dug in.

Democrats. Things are complicated on the Democratic side, too.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) kicked off her Senate campaign Monday with a launch video that featured audio of President Donald Trump trashing her. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024.

Crockett has made a name for herself as a hardline progressive during her House tenure. Crockett once derided Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, as “Governor Hot Wheels,” a comment for which she later refused to apologize. Crockett has also picked feuds with Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and others. This has made Crockett very popular on the left, but it’s unclear how it will play statewide.

Republicans said they were excited about the possibility of facing Crockett in the general election.

“I think she wins the Democratic primary, and she is the worst possible candidate they could have in Texas,” Cornyn said. “She’s unelectable.”

Crockett’s entry into the race also set off a chain reaction among Texas Democrats. Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) dropped out of the Senate primary and launched a run for the 33rd District.

That puts Allred in a contest with Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas), his congressional successor. This is already on track to be an acrimonious primary.

Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) currently holds the 33rd District, but he planned to pivot to Crockett’s 30th District since she was running for Senate.

But Frederick Haynes III, a prominent pastor from a Dallas church, filed for Crockett’s seat. Veasey shifted and filed to run for Tarrant County judge instead of seeking reelection to Congress. Veasey’s home is in Fort Worth and this move could make Veasey the chief executive of his home county.

So for a moment, it seemed like all incumbent Texas Democrats would have a seat to run in thanks to Crockett’s Senate bid and the vacancy in the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner’s district.

But now Johnson is facing a challenge from a popular former member and Veasey is exiting Congress.

— Ally Mutnick and Andrew Desiderio

THE MINORITY

Cuellar to get his Approps post back

News: House Democrats are set to restore Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) post as the party’s top lawmaker on a key Appropriations subcommittee, according to multiple Democratic sources.

The move is expected to come this week, the sources said.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, sent out a note last week to Democratic appropriators asking if there were “any objections” to Cuellar returning as the ranking member on the Homeland subcommittee. DeLauro set a Tuesday deadline for those objections.

If there are no such objections, DeLauro will tell the Democratic leadership that Cuellar’s return to the position was approved by unanimous consent. If there are objections, Democratic appropriators will vote on the issue, DeLauro said. Democratic appropriators are expected to meet Thursday.

Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) is the acting ranking member on the Homeland subcommittee currently.

Cuellar had no comment at press time. Underwood’s office also didn’t respond to a request for comment.

All this comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s controversial pardon of Cuellar, who was indicted along with his wife Imelda in May 2024 on an array of federal criminal charges, including bribery, money laundering and acting as a foreign agent. The Texas Democrat allegedly accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from an Azerbaijani oil company and a Mexican bank over a years-long period.

There was intense speculation that Cuellar would switch parties following his surprise pardon by Trump.

But Trump lashed out at Cuellar on Sunday on Truth Social after the 70-year-old Cuellar registered to run for reelection as a Democrat:

Cuellar repeatedly told reporters that “nothing has changed” last week following the pardon, meaning he wasn’t changing parties.

– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

… AND THERE’S MORE

House Dem leadership names AI commission

News: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has tapped Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Valerie Foushee (N.C.) and Ted Lieu (Calif.) to chair the House Democratic Commission on AI and the Innovation Economy.

To state the obvious, Congress has struggled mightily with AI policy. This trio will be in the lead for the Democrats in developing a position.

Big campaign finance case. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today on NRSC v. FEC, a potentially transformative case that could upend how hundreds of millions of TV ad dollars are spent.

The justices will consider whether party committees, such as the NRSC, can coordinate more freely with individual campaigns. A decision in their favor would let party committees air ads with candidates and, therefore, purchase air time at the lower rate offered to candidates.

Party committees drive a ton of ad spending in individual races. It would be a big deal if they were able to air those ads at a fraction of the cost.

Under former NRSC Chair Steve Daines, the committee first skirted these coordination limits in 2024 using joint fundraising committees. Now they’re hoping SCOTUS erases the need for that loophole.

“Beyond the political implications, Republicans are correct on the merits: there is no reason party committees should be forced to pay the same exorbitant advertising rates as super PACs that can raise unlimited funds,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the NRSC in 2024.

Both parties would save money if SCOTUS ruled in favor of striking the limits. But Republicans would benefit more from such a change. The GOP relies more on outside groups to air ads because its candidates tend to raise less money than Democratic candidates. Democrats are asking the justices to rule against it.

We’ll break down the oral arguments today in our Midday edition.

– Ally Mutnick

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