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January 5, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
The House still doesn’t have a speaker. Kevin McCarthy still has 20 GOP colleagues voting for someone else for the chamber’s top job. And the California Republican may still have to sit through a seventh speaker vote today that he’s sure to lose.
Yet for the first time this week, there are some positive signs for McCarthy. They’re small and you have to squint your eyes a bit to see them. But they’re there.
| → | McCarthy won a raucous floor vote Wednesday night to adjourn the House until noon today. There were only four Republican defections. Two Democratic absences — Reps. Tony Cárdenas (Calif.) and Adriano Espaillat (N.Y.) — helped GOP leadership seal the win. But as McCarthy frequently says, it’s better to be lucky than good. |
It was a small victory. Yet it was also a proxy of sorts that allowed talks between McCarthy and his conservative opponents to continue throughout the night.
| → | After days of stalemate that led to the current crisis, negotiations between leadership allies and McCarthy opponents have begun moving in a positive direction. There’s no deal yet, and it may take several more days to finish these talks – if they’re even successful. |
Republican insiders say negotiations to choose a speaker will likely drag into next week. Weekend votes are being threatened, but we’re told it’s unlikely.
Here’s some news: The demands from Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and the House Freedom Caucus are very aggressive, although McCarthy and his leadership allies are considering – or have even approved – nearly all of them. That’s a sign of the enormous leverage conservative hardliners have over McCarthy right now.
These demands include: any single member can offer a “motion to vacate the chair,” essentially a no-confidence vote on the speaker, although conservatives promise not to abuse it; and placement of as many as four HFC members (or HFC “adjacent”) on the powerful Rules Committee, which is how the speaker controls the floor; guaranteed floor votes on border security and term limits bills.
In addition, conservatives want to be given multiple subcommittee gavels, including an HFC member as a “cardinal” on the Appropriations Committee (maybe even the key Labor-HHS panel); removing the “Weaponization of the Federal Government” subcommittee from under the Judiciary Committee and allowing an HFC member to chair the panel.
McCarthy has traded offers with conservatives on these issues.
“It’s hard to say a timeline,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who is involved in the negotiations, told us.
| → | Outside the Capitol, Club for Growth, which was opposing McCathy’s candidacy, cut a deal with the Congressional Leadership Fund – the McCarthy aligned super PAC – that paved the way for the Club to support the California Republican. CLF will no longer spend in open-seat, safe Republican primaries, allaying a major concern of conservatives. |
But remember: McCarthy could face a backlash from the rest of the leadership or the broader Republican Conference if he gives away too much. It does Republicans no good down the road if McCarthy becomes speaker yet is unable to govern. So he has to walk a very fine line here. McCarthy needs to convince enough hardline conservatives to back him to become speaker without losing his other supporters.
How was McCarthy feeling after Wednesday’s drama?
There are plenty of rumors that McCarthy has a deal with Roy. He doesn’t. He has swapped proposals, but nothing is done until everything is done, as the old Capitol Hill saying goes.
As for today, McCarthy doesn’t want to repeat the multiple roll-call votes of Tuesday and Wednesday, saying, “We’ve gone through that, people know where everybody is at. You see the votes don’t really change at all.”
Our question heading into Wednesday was whether McCarthy could survive the day. He did – but it was by the skin of his teeth. McCarthy still has a herculean task ahead of him to be speaker. And today is another question of sink or swim.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle
Our first event of the year: We’re hosting an event at the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ 91st Winter Meeting on Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. ET! The conversation will be with a mayor about big issues facing local government and what can happen at that level when there is a divided Congress, presented by Fidelity Investments. A reception will follow the conversation. RSVP to join us here!
INSIDE THE HOUSE
McCarthy’s strategy and what he has to do next
How does Kevin McCarthy get through today and keep his hopes of being the next speaker of the House alive? Here’s a peek inside his strategy.
| → | Lower the temperature: The GOP leadership recognizes that Monday’s closed-door party meeting didn’t go well. McCarthy clashed with the Freedom Caucus and tried to turn the rest of the conference against them. McCarthy did that, but he also alienated some of the votes needed to be speaker. |
After a few failed speaker votes, McCarthy dispatched emissaries to begin talks with conservatives on Tuesday night. McCarthy diverted reporters’ attention by making calls from his second-floor Capitol office. All the while, key leadership allies such as Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), French Hill (R-Ark.) and others were meeting with conservative dissidents opposed in House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office until 1 a.m.
This group has continued to meet on and off with McCarthy’s opposition this week, including a lengthy huddle in Emmer’s office Wednesday night that helped partially break the stalemate.
These emissaries have been key for McCarthy, although he was involved personally in last night’s discussions as well.
| → | Ignore Boebert and Gaetz. Focus on Roy. There is no deal to be had with Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) – so there’s really no use in paying attention to them. Instead, McCarthy and the leadership are focused on Roy. |
This is all part of a broader strategy. McCarthy and his allies are viewing his conservative opponents as separate factions that can be approached differently.
In part, McCarthy has already been successful in splitting conservatives. You can hear Boebert and Gaetz still bashing McCarthy in very personal terms, while Roy says they’re making good progress.
If McCarthy can win over Roy’s group, he’ll be able to show growing momentum and could start picking off some of the others.
Those involved in the talks with Roy say they’ve been productive.
“It’s all about … empowering us to stop the machine in this town from doing what it does,” Roy told reporters as he shuttled between a TV interview and the talks in Emmer’s office.
“I don’t look to want to have to fly [to D.C.] to be on the Rules Committee,” Roy added, referring to the committee’s early-week meetings. “I offered my name in case it’s helpful. But it was an offer to try to actually try to move the ball forward because we were being asked for names.”
We also saw McCarthy pull Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) aside off the House floor last night and invite her to “come see me.” Luna has consistently voted against McCarthy.
| → | Progress is momentum. And momentum is key: The belief among McCarthy backers is that winning over Roy could net McCarthy up to 10 votes, according to sources familiar with the talks. But that still leaves 10 or so GOP lawmakers opposed to McCarthy, and the California Republican can only lose four votes on the floor. |
In addition to Boebert and Gaetz, Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) are still firmly in the “Never Kevin” camp. There may be more, as well.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told us last night there was “nothing” McCarthy could give him to win his support other than a “full commitment” to a possible government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight in order to cut spending.
Yet as we mentioned earlier, there’s still no deal with the Roy group. Several members haven’t agreed to the latest offer from McCarthy, despite meeting late into Wednesday evening, as Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) told our friend Melanie Zanona of CNN.
McCarthy still has a significant math problem and is unlikely to get to 218 votes on the next speaker ballot. But McCarthy and his allies believe the momentum will keep him alive.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle
EXCLUSIVE
Top Republicans warn speaker delay threatens national security
New: Supporters of Kevin McCarthy are taking aim at his detractors this morning, arguing that the delay in choosing a speaker is creating national security risks and undermining Republicans’ own promises to voters.
In a statement, three GOP lawmakers set to chair powerful national-security committees in the 118th Congress noted that the House – still without a speaker due to conservative opposition to McCarthy – cannot conduct oversight of the Pentagon or intelligence agencies.
That’s because their committees can’t actually do much without a speaker in place. And it means Republicans can’t yet begin the oversight and investigations they’ve promised on an array of issues, mostly centering on national security and foreign policy.
The statement was signed by incoming Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas), incoming Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and incoming Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) — who refer to themselves as the “Three Mikes.”
It reads in part:
To be sure, this argument isn’t likely to persuade the conservative holdouts in favor of McCarthy. But Republicans of all stripes, from moderates to the Freedom Caucus, have backed urgent oversight and robust investigations as part of their new House majority, including on the rise of China and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
While the speaker drama plays out, there can be none of that. On Wednesday, a group of GOP military veterans put it in starker terms.
“Authoritarian regimes all over the world are pointing to what’s going on in the House of Representatives and saying, ‘Look at the messiness of democracy, look at how it doesn’t work, can’t function,’” said Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), the first Green Beret to serve in Congress.
There’s also the question of whether members — or members-elect — can even get briefed on an urgent national-security matter if one arises. If they aren’t yet sworn in and their committees aren’t yet constituted, are these members-elect technically even privy to classified information?
These questions have never been contemplated in the modern era because a speaker has always been elected on the opening day of a new Congress. But it’s something to consider as the speaker fight drags on with no end in sight.
—Andrew Desiderio
PRESENTED BY BOEING
Team Boeing is building next generation products and services with a commitment to engineering excellence and an innovative vision for the future of aerospace.
INSIDE THE HOUSE
What it’s like when the House has no rules
We are in wild times in the House of Representatives. There is no speaker, so therefore there are no rules in place for the institution.
Cheryl Johnson, the clerk of the House, is presiding over the chamber, exhibiting extraordinary patience and steadiness.
But most notably, the public is getting an amazing view of what we see every day in the chamber. Typically, the House controls the cameras in the chamber, meaning they are limited in what they can show. But now, the cameras can show any view they want. C-SPAN has some incredible footage.
Photographers, who are only allowed in the chamber on rare circumstances, are able to capture amazing moments of lawmakers at work.
Check out some of these images.
Photos by: First row: Anna Moneymaker and Kevin Dietsch of Getty. Second row: Tom Williams of CQ/Roll Call. Third row: Win McNamee of Getty.
– Jake Sherman
We’re here! Punchbowl News heads to Vegas for CES
Happening today: We’re in Las Vegas as a media partner at CES, the annual premier technology and policy conference. There will be lots of conversations about the power, people and politics shaping policy on Capitol Hill and beyond.
Of particular interest to us will be events diving into crypto’s considerable energy use, how digital wallets should be designed to keep all your dogecoins safe, the future of cybersecurity and how the federal government can foster real innovation in the decades ahead.
We also expect Congress to get a mention or two around clean energy and sustainability policy. The Inflation Reduction Act’s historic investments in climate change preparedness and renewable infrastructure could supercharge corporate interest in this space, and we hope to hear some specifics from business leaders.
Be sure to check out the entire CES schedule for the week. We’ll have dispatches through the end of the week.
Help us out: If you’re attending CES in person and see any interesting scenes, conversations or huddles, we’d love to hear from you. Drop us a note here.
– Brendan Pedersen
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Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.