The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Trump and the House Freedom Caucus: It’s complicated

Senate Republicans eye votes on immigration, Israel

The Vault: The Senate reconciliation fallout

Some big decisions for Johnson coming up this week

THE TOP

Trump and the House Freedom Caucus: It’s complicated

Happy Tuesday morning.

As Hill Republicans scramble to implement Donald Trump’s agenda, there’s a question kicking around GOP circles: Will the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus be the president-elect’s biggest supporters or his biggest problem children?

To be clear, the HFC is home to some of the Trumpiest members in Washington. Hardline conservatives were only willing to back Mike Johnson for speaker — who they still have reservations about — out of deference to Trump. It took a phone call from the incoming president to flip the remaining two Freedom Caucus holdouts, Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Keith Self (R-Texas), into Johnson’s column. Trump should be able to count on the conservative crew to fall in line on nearly all issues.

Yet the HFC, which built its brand on being a thorn in the side of House GOP leaders, has also been willing to defy Trump at times. For instance, 38 Republicans, many of them Freedom Caucus members, voted against a Trump-endorsed CR in December that would have also lifted the debt limit because it lacked spending cuts.

So it’s clear these hardliners are sometimes comfortable banding together and bucking Trump — at least when they have strength in numbers.

A rocky start. During an HFC meeting late last month after Johnson revealed his new CR and debt limit plan, multiple members said they were put off by how James Braid, Trump’s incoming top congressional liaison and a former HFC staffer himself, handled the government funding negotiations.

Braid called into a Dec. 19 meeting to pressure members to raise the debt limit, forcefully reminding them that is what Trump called for, according to multiple sources. Braid’s allies say he was simply articulating Trump’s position and trying to make clear to members that the president-elect would not waver on the issue. But we’re told several HFC members found Braid’s demeanor overly aggressive and privately complained to each other afterward.

House Republicans ended up agreeing to address the debt limit in reconciliation and pair it with $2.5 trillion worth of spending cuts. However, some Freedom Caucus members are skeptical that the party will keep that promise, especially after GOP lawmakers were warned at an off-campus retreat last weekend that not all of their wishes are going to be fulfilled.

We’ve written a lot about the HFC’s identity crisis in recent years. Yet Trump’s return to Washington and how the group navigates his demands, as well as looming debt limit and government funding deadlines, may prove to be the ultimate test.

At some point, the HFC’s allegiance to Trump will likely conflict with the group’s core ethos of fiscal responsibility. But with one big reconciliation package containing a host of border, tax and energy provisions, the general thinking is that it’ll be difficult for any single member to block it.

For his part, Trump has shown an early interest in being incredibly hands-on with Capitol Hill Republicans. This will be a dynamic to watch in the coming days and months.

In addition to having one-on-one calls with everyone from leadership to rank-and-file members, Trump has also summoned key factions to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to get everyone on the same page. Notably, the House Freedom Caucus will be up first.

Trump — who will be in town for a memorial for the late President Jimmy Carter — is also expected to attend a meeting with Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as we scooped on Monday.

Past turbulence with Trump. Several HFC members endorsed against Trump early in the campaign cycle, which in part prompted the incoming president to help oust the group’s former chair, now-former Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), in a contentious primary last year.

Good and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), the HFC policy chair, backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a former HFC member — for president, while Norman endorsed fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley. Trump hasn’t forgotten, of course. Trump brought up Norman’s support for Haley when they talked during the speaker vote last week.

Trump also went after Roy in a Truth Social post last month after the Texas Republican opposed raising the debt limit. Trump called Roy an “obstructionist” and said he wanted the fourth-term lawmaker to be primaried.

But the two had a more cordial interaction last week ahead of Friday’s speakership vote. During a phone call, Trump promised to lay off Roy but said he needed to vote for Johnson, as we first reported. Roy ultimately followed Trump’s demand.

There have been other tension points between Trump world and HFC though.

During last year’s primaries, we wrote about HFC members complaining about Trump’s endorsements, saying he was picking moderates over conservatives.

And Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign manager, continues to be openly antagonistic about helping to topple the group’s leader last cycle. Meanwhile, many HFC members believed Russ Vought, Trump’s OMB Director pick, would have been a stronger ally to them as chief of staff over Susie Wiles.

Some HFC insiders pushed back, however, playing up the group’s strong ties to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

— Melanie Zanona and Mica Soellner

Happening today in Las Vegas: Punchbowl News Tech reporter Ben Brody will hit the Innovation Policy Summit stage at CES 2025. He’ll lead a panel discussion on big tech and the innovation economy at 1 p.m. PST.

Can’t make it? We’ll have post-conversation coverage in our newsletter.

THE SENATE

Senate Republicans eye votes on immigration, Israel

News: Senate GOP leaders are plotting a pre-inauguration floor strategy centering on two pieces of legislation that are likely to divide Democrats.

The bills have drawn bipartisan support but are politically difficult votes for Democrats. They’re among those that fell by the wayside under Democratic control last year and, in one case, caused an effective shutdown of a key Senate committee.

Republican leaders are planning to hold votes on two measures that then-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer blocked last year — a hot-button immigration bill followed by legislation to sanction the International Criminal Court for targeting Israel, according to multiple GOP senators and leadership sources.

As we reported, Senate Majority Leader John Thune took procedural steps on Monday to set up votes on the immigration bill, the Laken Riley Act. The legislation, which would give law enforcement more power to detain undocumented immigrants accused of crimes, could get a vote as soon as this week. The House is voting on the measure today.

Some news: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), along with 50 Senate Republicans, is cosponsoring the Laken Riley Act. Sens. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) and Ted Budd (R-N.C.) are championing the now-bipartisan package.

The ICC sanctions bill, we’re told, is expected to hit the floor shortly thereafter. It’s unclear whether either could get the requisite 60 votes.

The strategy: The new Senate GOP majority can’t do that much on the floor until President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20. Until then, most of the action is off the floor. Trump’s Cabinet nominees are continuing their meetings with senators this week, and many are expected to sit for confirmation hearings next week.

The immigration and Israel bills in particular were highly contentious last year, although both drew modest Democratic support when they were considered in the GOP-controlled House. The Laken Riley Act is named after a Georgia student killed by an undocumented immigrant. Republicans introduced the bill to spotlight what they said were consequences of the Biden administration’s border policies.

Meanwhile, partisan tensions over the ICC sanctions bill threw the Senate Foreign Relations Committee into a state of unprecedented paralysis last year, as we scooped. Democrats’ refusal to take up the bill in committee prompted the panel’s now-chairman, Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), to block committee action on all nominations and legislation.

The dispute was never resolved, and the committee hasn’t held a markup since last April. Now that Republicans are in the majority, there are no such obstacles. But Risch told us Monday that he’s comfortable bypassing the committee process for the ICC bill:

Noms news: The Senate Commerce Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing for former Rep. Sean Duffy’s (R-Wis.) transportation secretary nomination on Wednesday, Jan. 15, per a senior Senate aide.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

The Vault: The Senate reconciliation fallout

Senate Republicans are getting their first taste of some challenging dynamics in President-elect Donald Trump’s Washington.

The debate over passing border security, tax, energy and other GOP priorities via one or two filibuster-proof reconciliation bills seemed to be leaning the Senate GOP’s way at times. But the House finally notched a strategy win — thanks in part to the convincing argument that its majority is so thin and unruly that an all-or-nothing approach is best. It is one reconciliation bill for now.

But while Trump is backing the House’s preference, he’s also sending signals he could change his mind. Ultimately, what he cares about is speedy results.

Trump’s posture is leaving Senate Republicans searching for more clarity. The two-bill approach they supported was intended to score an early victory on border policy while leaving the tax debate for later. Now, they’re hoping to settle this once and for all when Trump visits with them Wednesday, as we scooped.

“I think we just need to all get on the same page,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “And I think now that President Trump has expressed a preference for one bill, that’s where I expect us to go.”

What this means for Thune: In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said his relationship with Trump — which required some repair last year — is “evolving.” Thune said he and Trump “understand what each other wants to accomplish” and “there is an alignment of incentives.”

It made sense for Thune to press forward with the two-bill strategy for as long as he did. Not only were Trump’s top policy aides behind it, but conservative hardliners and key Trump allies in Thune’s conference were also supportive.

Thune, for his part, downplayed the strategy debate.

“Process issues, to me, are a lot less important than the results,” he said. Regardless of the exact process, Thune added, “this is really hard stuff.”

How Crapo operated: Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who just took the gavel for the first time, stayed as low-key as possible during the strategy debate. Crapo refused to take a public position, even as most Senate Republicans backed Thune’s push for two bills.

Crapo is the type to back his party leaders. But his House counterpart, Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), was the leading force behind the one-bill approach. So Crapo was in an awkward spot, especially given he and Smith were at odds over the latter’s tax deal last year. Smith pitted himself directly against Thune and spoke out to push what he believed was best for Trump’s agenda.

— Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

THE SPEAKER

Some big decisions for Johnson coming up this week

Speaker Mike Johnson has gotten past his floor election, but he has a number of critical decisions to make in the next few days.

Speaker-appointed committees. Johnson still hasn’t announced who’ll chair or serve on the House Intelligence and Rules committees. The speaker has unilateral authority to appoint members and chairs to both panels.

Rules is a vital choice for Johnson. Johnson wants a woman to lead the panel, sources told us. The GOP hasn’t ever had a woman running the committee, which controls what legislation comes to the floor and how it’s considered. Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) and Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) appear to be the top two contenders. Foxx is a steady hand who inspires respect — fear even — in the heart of Republicans. Fischbach is in her third term in the House and has drawn some short straws during that tenure — the Rules and Ethics committees. Typically speakers reward this type of arduous service. Fischbach has also been the lieutenant governor of Minnesota and president of the state senate.

The big question for Johnson is over booting Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) from the panel. Massie and Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) have all stymied the speaker’s priorities on the Rules Committee and limited Johnson’s ability to bring legislation to the floor. Massie himself has floated stepping off the committee. Some in the senior House GOP ranks have suggested replacing Massie with Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Some inside the House GOP Conference have talked for months about Johnson replacing Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) as chair of Intel. House Republican leadership insiders don’t believe Johnson will do this, and we’ve gotten strong pushback from Turner’s allies for even mentioning this chatter. Turner is slated to attend a session this weekend for House chairs with President-elect Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago. Turner has been told he needs to improve his relationship with Trump world, sources told us.

There are also a number of seats open on Intel that Johnson will have to fill. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), a member of leadership, is among those making a run at Intel.

Johnson declined to comment on his decisions on Intel and Rules on Monday. But he said he’d make these decisions in the early part of this week.

Select committees. Johnson is also being lobbied to create several select committees. There’s no urgency or timeline for Johnson to act here, and we’re told the speaker is focused on filling out the standing committees first. Still, it’s something being put on his radar.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) has been pushing Johnson hard on a select committee to combat Mexican drug cartels. Crenshaw led a task force on the subject last Congress but has argued he needs a dedicated staff and more centralized jurisdiction to really address the issue.

We’re told Crenshaw also pitched the idea at Saturday’s off-campus retreat during a session with Stephen Miller,Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, who said it was an interesting idea. Johnson has been non-committal so far.

Meanwhile, Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) is advocating for a select committee for all the GOP’s investigations related to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Loudermilk had already used his House Administration subcommittee to delve into the topic. But with Trump coming back into office and vowing political retribution over the issue, it’s clear Republicans want to keep investigating the investigators.

— Jake Sherman and Melanie Zanona

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Caliber Holdings, a chain of auto body repair shops, is getting in on the tax lobbying game. It hired OGR to lobby on “[i]ssues related to tax incentives for apprenticeship programs.”

Thorn Run Partners is now lobbying for the City of Las Vegas on “budget, transportation of nuclear waste, southern Nevada public lands, housing and homelessness.”

The ​Mackinac Island Convention and Visitors Bureau in Michigan has hired Scissortail Strategic Consulting Partners to lobby on “[i]ssues related to H-2B visas and temporary foreign work visas.”

— Jake Sherman

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