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The Johnson-Biden tango

Our Munich Security Conference notebook

New Dems get involved in key primaries

Carl gets sharp in final days of primary against Moore

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The Johnson-Biden tango

Happy Tuesday morning.

President Joe Biden and Speaker Mike Johnson both say they’d be happy to meet with the other. But so far, it’s not happening, a sign of just how bitter the partisanship has become around Ukraine, border security and impeachment as the 2024 election creeps closer.

“Sure, I’d be happy to meet with [Johnson] if he has anything to say,” Biden told reporters Monday.

Johnson would have something to say. But it might not be what Biden wants to hear.

The president hammered Johnson and House Republicans for refusing to take up a Senate-passed foreign aid package that includes tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine. The death Friday of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an Arctic prison and recent Ukrainian battlefield reverses have provoked further recriminations from top administration officials and Hill Democrats over House GOP inaction.

“Look, the way they’re walking away from the threat of Russia, the way they’re walking away from NATO, the way they’re walking away from meeting our obligations, it’s just shocking,” Biden added. “I mean, they’re wild. I’ve never seen anything like this.”

Several hours later, Johnson’s office countered, noting the speaker has already sought a one-on-one with Biden only to be shut out by the White House. Here’s Raj Shah, Johnson’s deputy chief of staff for communications:

The back-and-forth between Biden and Johnson comes at an extraordinarily fraught moment for each man even beyond the election-year pressure:

→	House Republicans plan to interview James Biden, the president’s brother, on Wednesday as part of their presidential impeachment probe. Presidential son Hunter Biden’s interview is next week.

→	House GOP leaders pushed through an impeachment resolution against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and that Senate trial will begin when Congress returns from recess at the end of the month.

→

The FY2024 spending bills still haven’t been passed, and Johnson — who is getting criticism from all sides of his conference — is facing growing pressure from GOP hardliners to provoke a government shutdown starting March 1. And while Biden’s poll numbers remain terrible, Johnson’s wildly dysfunctional majority is down to a mere two seats.

Of course, the two will see each other at the State of the Union address on March 7 — that is if the government isn’t shut down.

Johnson would go into any meeting with Biden at a serious disadvantage politically. House Democrats and the Senate all support more Ukraine funding. While immigration and the border crisis have been major problems for Biden throughout his presidency, it was opposition from Johnson — spurred on by former President Donald Trump — that helped sink the Senate’s bipartisan border security deal.

The Ukraine question: One of the biggest mysteries is where Johnson stands on Ukraine now that he’s received the highest-level classified briefings as speaker. Johnson previously voted against Ukraine aid as a rank-and-file member. He’s also a close ally of Trump, the driving force behind rising anti-Ukraine sentiment in the GOP.

Democrats and pro-Ukraine Republicans note that Johnson has spoken positively about Ukraine and the need to push back against Russia’s growing threat to NATO. Senate Republicans tell us the speaker has been strong on the issue during their private meetings. And his statement on Navalny’s death seemed to indicate a desire to take action.

“Mike, at his default, is a peace through strength person,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who’s urging Johnson to put a slimmed-down bipartisan aid package on the floor, told us in Munich.

At the same time, Johnson has refused to make it a priority the same way his Senate counterpart Mitch McConnell has, leading to criticism from Democrats that Johnson is unable or unwilling to take action on the issue.

“The time for words and platitudes is over,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in an interview. “We’ve run out of time.”

This dynamic was highlighted in Munich, where U.S. lawmakers met with dozens of foreign leaders.

“The urgency of the moment, the epic dysfunction of the House of Representatives has drawn attention to the question of — can they legislate in the most basic of ways?” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said.

Of course, Johnson has to deal with a potential motion to vacate from hardline conservatives over Ukraine that could cost him his job. Fitzpatrick, whose bill includes lethal foreign aid only and a modest border security fix, is urging Democrats to consider saving Johnson’s speakership if that happens. Fitzpatrick said that could be the deciding factor for whether the United States abandons Ukraine.

“We need our Democrat colleagues to help us out here,” Fitzpatrick said. “We can’t be punishing anybody who puts a two-party bill on the floor to save America and the world from existential threats.”

— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

March Events! Join us: Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer will interview Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) on Tuesday, March 5 at 9 a.m. ET. They will discuss news of the day and how private equity supports small business and jobs in Georgia. This conversation is the first event in a two-part series, Investing in Your Community. RSVP now!

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Our Munich Security Conference notebook

MUNICH — We spent a lot of time with the lawmakers who attended the Munich Security Conference this past weekend — from on-the-record interviews to the main stage, several off-the-record side events and even gut-wrenching moments like this.

So we thought it would be useful to empty out our reporter’s notebook and fill you in on some key moments that stood out to us during the three-day affair. You can read more of our coverage from Munich in Monday’s AM edition.

Connolly sounds off: As we wrote above, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) wants Democrats to commit to saving Speaker Mike Johnson’s gavel if he’s targeted by conservative Republican hardliners with a motion to vacate over a Ukraine vote.

If such a commitment is the only way to ensure Ukraine aid gets a floor vote, Fitzpatrick suggested, this should be a no-brainer for Democrats.

Not so fast, says Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). Connolly told us that this would amount to “casting a vote against my own interests,” given what he sees as Johnson’s extreme views.

Connolly also pointed out, correctly, that continuing to serve as speaker because Democrats bailed you out is not a recipe for Johnson’s survival.

“You are a marked man if you exist as a Republican speaker at the sufferance of Democrats,” Connolly told us. “It sounds nice and clever and we might owe him — no we don’t. And he doesn’t want it. He’s got enough trouble on his hands.”

Warner on Israel-Gaza: The dominant topic at the conference, by far, was Ukraine. This meant that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza was effectively a backburner issue. That came as a surprise to Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), who noted that Gaza brings near-daily protests back home against Israel’s military operations.

Warner went on to describe the Israel-Hamas war and its impact on U.S. society as one of the most intense he’s ever seen.

Here’s more from Warner:

As Intelligence Committee chair, Warner is privy to U.S. assessments of the ongoing war. He told us the Israelis have only been able to secure a “stunningly small” amount of the tunnels that Hamas fighters use throughout Gaza. Warner also warned that younger Americans are turning against Israel.

“As someone who’s been a long-term supporter of Israel, I worry about a generation of Americans that might not have that automatic support. And I don’t know whether the Israeli people know that, get that,” he said.

Sullivan leans in: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), an outspoken defense hawk, has had a pretty high profile lately. First, Sullivan led the coalition of Senate Republicans that ended up forcing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) to abandon his unprecedented blockade of military promotions.

Now Sullivan is taking a leading role in pushing back against those in his party arguing that the United States should abandon Ukraine because the Indo-Pacific region is more important. A Russian victory in Ukraine will embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping in his quest to conquer Taiwan, Sullivan said, just as the Afghanistan withdrawal emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“That’s not the way the world works. Deterrence is not divisible,” Sullivan told us. “You can’t say, ‘Don’t worry, we’re going to let Putin roll here, but we’ll be really strong when the next dictator, Xi Jinping, tries to move on Taiwan.’”

— Andrew Desiderio

ENDORSEMENT WATCH

New Dems get involved in key primaries

News: The political arm of the New Democrat Coalition is endorsing a slate of five female candidates in high-profile districts.

In the most notable endorsement, the New Dems are going with Joanna Weiss over state Sen. Dave Min in California’s 47th District. This is the toss-up seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) Senate run.

The New Dems are also supporting Janelle Stelson in PA-10 over Mike O’Brien in the race to knock off Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Ashley Ehasz is the group’s favored candidate to take on Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) in November.

In Michigan’s 8th District, where Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) is retiring, New Dems are backing state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet. We scooped her entrance into the race last year.

In Delaware’s at-large House seat, the group endorsed runaway favorite state Sen. Sarah McBride. McBride would be the first openly transgender member of Congress if elected.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Carl gets sharp in final days of primary against Moore

Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) is running an ad for his primary election accusing fellow Republican Rep. Barry Moore (Ala.) of being a tax cheat and wanting to raise taxes. Quite the harsh spot in the member-on-member primary in Alabama.

Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) is running an ad with an audio message from former President Donald Trump endorsing him. Palmer has a primary on March 5.

— Jake Sherman

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

The Carter Center, the non-profit founded by former President Jimmy Carter, has registered to lobby. The organization will lobby on “[m]ental Health (Mental Health Parity, Mental Health Workforce, school-based services) Caregivers of individuals with mental illness FY25 Appropriations.” The affiliated Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregiving has also registered to lobby.

— Jake Sherman

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