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IN THIS EDITION

The Big Four’s rocky March

How SCOTUS’ tariff bombshell impacts the Hill

Pro-AI network to spend $5M in Texas GOP primaries

The left’s next big test in N.C.

THE TOP

The Big Four’s rocky March

Happy Monday morning.

Welcome back, everyone — sort of. The massive winter storm slamming the East Coast has disrupted the congressional schedule. Votes are postponed until Tuesday in both the House and Senate. The State of the Union address is Tuesday night. We’ll have a special edition out to preview President Donald Trump’s speech.

It’s the final week of February, with 253 days to Election Day. The central players of the Punchbowl News universe — Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — face a daunting set of legislative crises. Let’s get into it.

DHS. The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has now reached 10 days with no end in sight. Senate Democrats and the White House swapped proposals to break the impasse during the recess. Yet Trump administration officials said the last Democratic offer gave them little hope for a deal to reform ICE and CBP operations.

Trump administration officials told us that they’re willing to codify into law many of the changes that border czar Tom Homan has made since taking over “Operation Metro Surge” in Minneapolis. The White House sent this one-page sheet to Republican and Democratic Hill offices on Sunday outlining how Homan has modified the controversial ICE operation. This indicates that the White House isn’t interested in moving closer toward the Democratic position at the moment.

Democrats have been asking for much more. Schumer and Jeffries released their 10-point plan to overhaul DHS and ICE 19 days ago. Republican congressional leaders have already rejected some of the Democrats’ central demands — a mask ban for federal officers and requiring judicial warrants for enforcement operations.

Republicans and Democrats keep saying they’re having good-faith talks. But all signs from top negotiators indicate that they aren’t making much progress.

With the stunning revelation that an ICE officer fatally shot a man in March in South Padre Island, Texas, you can bet that Democrats’ position is only going to harden.

So what’s going to unlock this impasse? Both sides are completely comfortable in their position. There hasn’t been much public outcry about the shutdown, mostly because upwards of 90% of the department — the Transportation Security Administration, Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency — are considered essential, meaning employees are working without pay.

The White House is trying to make this painful, however. Over the weekend, DHS announced that TSA PreCheck and Global Entry had been suspended. But they quickly reversed course, at least partially, following a public outcry (both programs are funded by fees), declaring TSA PreCheck would be operational. FEMA will stop non-essential work. And members of Congress won’t get their courtesy escorts through airports around the country.

Remember that 30 million or more people watch the State of the Union every year. So Trump has a big platform to discuss this issue.

Iran. Trump has amassed a huge amount of U.S. military firepower in the Gulf region, including two carrier strike groups. There are multiple reports that U.S. forces are ready to strike Iran whenever Trump orders. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials over Iran’s nuclear weapons program will continue on Thursday.

What Trump hasn’t done is provide any clear statement on what his goals are. It’s fair to say many lawmakers in both parties are concerned. Would U.S. airstrikes be aimed solely at Iranian nuclear facilities, or is the goal to help Iranian protesters overthrow the brutal regime? Will a larger U.S. attack on Iran follow in the future? We expect Trump to discuss the Iran situation during his SOTU speech.

Congressional votes on an Iran war powers resolution aren’t expected until next week at the earliest. Over the weekend, Schumer and Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.), top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, came out against a preemptive strike on Iran.

FISA. FISA Section 702, the federal government’s authority to surveil foreign nationals outside the United States, expires April 19. This is always a massive headache for the GOP leadership, and this year is no different. At this point, all of the key figures in the debate are pushing for different outcomes.

The White House wants a clean, 18-month extension of the 702 authorities.

House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has met with the White House about reforms he wants to the program. Jordan told us on Fly Out Day a few weeks ago that he is working with House Intelligence Committee Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) on a package. But the House GOP leadership doesn’t believe that they’ll be able to find agreement. Crawford’s prickly relationship with some in the Trump administration could be an issue here.

SCOTUS. Tuesday and Wednesday are both decision days for the Supreme Court. Tuesday will be particularly interesting, considering that it’s the same day as the SOTU. Like everyone else, we want to see Trump and the justices in the House chamber together following last week’s presidential rant over the tariff decision.

The big ruling we’re waiting for is whether the high court will strike down Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. This would effectively allow red southern states to blow up their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, putting five or more minority-held seats in play.

SAVE Act. Thune continued to face intense pressure over the recess from conservatives who want him to embrace the so-called “talking filibuster” to pass the SAVE America Act.

Despite all the noise, it remains highly unlikely that the Senate will go down this path. The next few weeks will be very fraught for Thune amid conference-wide discussions about the “talking filibuster” effort, which Thune himself has warned is risky.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

NEW! Join us on Thursday, March 5, at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.). Punchbowl News Managing Editor Heather Caygle will sit down with Ciscomani and Auchincloss to discuss the news of the day and access to cancer screening. Afterward, Kevin Conroy, chair and CEO of Exact Sciences, will join Heather for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

TRADE WARS

How SCOTUS’ tariff bombshell impacts the Hill

The Supreme Court’s bombshell ruling striking down President Donald Trump’s tariff regime has set off a scramble on Capitol Hill over what role, if any, lawmakers will have to reassert their authority over trade policy.

The high court’s decision raises the economic, political and legal stakes of Tuesday night’s State of the Union address even further — if possible. Supreme Court justices, whom Trump has already publicly admonished, will be sitting right in front of him. Anything the president says on trade will be closely watched.

What’s next? The ruling from the Supreme Court came just as Democrats were in the middle of forcing votes on tariffs Trump imposed under IEEPA, creating a headache for the GOP congressional leadership. But those efforts aren’t as politically potent now.

In a split decision, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had no authority to trigger IEEPA for those tariffs in the first place. Trump is now turning to other authorities to wage his trade wars.

In the short term, the situation could lead to fewer tariff votes overall, which is a reprieve for Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson. These votes have put GOP trade divisions on display and prompted Trump to lash out at vulnerable Republicans who oppose him.

But there are still big questions about what comes next. Trump has replaced the IEEPA levies with global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trump has already announced he plans to raise the tariffs from his initial 10% target to 15%.

Trump can keep these tariffs in place for up to 150 days. Beyond that point, the president would need congressional approval to do so. Trump can use the coming months to ramp up trade investigations and draw on other tariff authorities. But the Section 122 expiration date will be a hard deadline.

News: Democrats are already plotting the next stage of their tariff fight. We’re told that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will release a statement later today declaring that Senate Democrats won’t support extending those tariffs past the initial 150-day window.

Democrats have long opposed the tariffs, so this isn’t necessarily a surprise. But Schumer is laying down a marker here early.

It also comes as Democrats are preparing to wage new pressure campaigns over refunds for the tens of billions of dollars in IEEPA tariffs, demanding that the money the federal government collected now be returned. This could become a big pressure point for the Trump administration.

“Under this administration they illegally took money out of the pockets of hard-working Americans,” said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), who has a bill to force refunds. “In my neighborhood when you take somebody’s money, you stole from them.”

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

THE LONE STAR STATE

Pro-AI network to spend $5M in Texas GOP primaries

News: Leading the Future, a super PAC network backed by AI industry executives, will spend $5 million in the upcoming House GOP primaries in Texas.

That spending begins today when the bipartisan network will launch a $500,000 ad buy to boost Jessica Steinmann, a MAGA lawyer running for an open red House seat in the greater Houston area. The network will run ads supporting her on broadcast, cable, streaming and digital.

Steinmann is the clear front-runner for the seat, which was vacated by retiring Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas). A top Steinmann opponent ended his campaign when Steinmann nabbed an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

“We believe the races in Texas present a unique opportunity to usher in a new class of pro-innovation candidates who will work together to enact an agenda that creates more economic opportunity for working families,” said Zac Moffatt, a co-strategist for Leading the Future.

Background. Leading the Future plans to part with millions of dollars this cycle to elect AI-friendly candidates. The upcoming $5 million investment is in addition to what the network is already spending to help Chris Gober, a lawyer who is running for retiring GOP Rep. Michael McCaul’s (Texas) open seat.

Texas’ primaries are set for March 3, but any race where a candidate does not clear 50% of the vote will advance to a May 26 runoff. Leading the Future is likely to be active in those runoffs.

Besides McCaul and Luttrell, Texas GOP Reps. Chip Roy, Jodey Arrington, Troy Nehls and Wesley Hunt are also either retiring or running for a different office. That leaves plenty of opportunities for the network to help shape the future of the Texas delegation.

Leading the Future is backed by Andreessen Horowitz and Greg Brockman, the president of OpenAI, and his wife Anna.

In New York, the network is spending to oppose Alex Bores, who is running for retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-N.Y.) seat.

– Ally Mutnick

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

The left’s next big test in N.C.

The Democratic Party’s ascendant progressive wing faces a major test on March 3 when Nida Allam tries to become the first leftist challenger of the cycle to knock off an incumbent.

Allam, a 32-year-old Durham County commissioner backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), is running against Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) in North Carolina’s most liberal district. Foushee, 69, beat Allam by nine points in the open primary for the 4th District back in 2022.

Four years later, Allam is mounting a comeback by arguing that Foushee isn’t doing enough to stand up to President Donald Trump’s administration.

“All we’re getting from our member [Foushee] is strongly worded letters and tweets,” Allam told us. “We need more than that, especially in our safest blue seats.”

Allam also claims Foushee is out of step with the Democratic base on key issues like Israel, AI regulation and corporate PAC money.

Israel. AIPAC backed Foushee in 2022, but the incumbent has since sworn off accepting any of the group’s donations and has supported a bill to cut off military aid to Israel. Still, Allam is criticizing Foushee on the issue by citing the incumbent’s 2024 trip to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“In the midst of this genocide, the congresswoman flew to Israel to have a photo op and a picture with Netanyahu smiling with him while tens of thousands of Palestinians were being killed,” Allam said.

Foushee has said she pushed for additional humanitarian aid for Palestinians during the visit.

Allam also is slamming Foushee for accepting corporate PAC donations, arguing Foushee can’t regulate the powerful AI industry if she takes campaign cash from these groups. Foushee is co-chair of the House Democratic AI commission.

The incumbent view. Foushee, a former school board member and state representative, is dismissive of Allam’s criticisms.

“I don’t respond to that,” Foushee said when asked for a reply to Allam’s messaging on donations.

We followed up by asking if Foushee gets questions about the corporate PAC donations on the campaign trail.

“No, she just talks about it,” Foushee said, referring to Allam. “Nobody else does.”

Foushee said the top issues she hears from voters are “affordability and accountability.”

Foushee enjoys support from both the establishment and left-wing groups in the Democratic party. The Congressional Black Caucus PAC is backing Foushee, in addition to the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and North Carolina Democratic Gov. Josh Stein.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Foushee was a “tremendous member of Congress” who’s “very forceful in advocating on behalf of her constituents and pushing back against Donald Trump’s extremism.”

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

The campaign. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise raised $5 million last week while fundraising in Florida.

The Louisiana Republican is on a fundraising tear. Scalise raised $35.5 million during 2025, his strongest off-year fundraising total.

Scalise also transferred $15.3 million to the NRCC and GOP candidates in 2025.

Staff news. Athina Lawson, Speaker Mike Johnson’s press secretary, is heading to the Treasury Department to become senior adviser for public affairs. In a statement, Johnson said Lawson has “been by my side through every major legislative battle and victory.”

“[Lawson] has been instrumental in shaping and amplifying House Republicans’ successes, and she is the right person to continue that work and champion our economic achievements in her new role,” Johnson said.

Also. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has tapped Matt Meyer to be the panel’s new staff director.

Meyer has been Smith’s chief of staff in his personal office since 2021. A long-time House Republican aide, Meyer was also chief of staff to former Rep. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.).

Meyer is taking over as Ways and Means’ top GOP staffer after Mark Roman, who held the role for the last three years, left to join Deloitte’s Washington National Tax practice.

– Ally Mutnick and Laura Weiss

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