The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s task: A tricky budget resolution vote followed by a shutdown fight

Medicaid cuts, DOGE chaos makes some Republicans wary

Senate week: Labor pick on the ropes, more GOP Ukraine in-fighting

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Johnson’s task: A tricky budget resolution vote followed by a shutdown fight

Happy Monday morning.

Just consider how big of a week this is for Congress. Or more specifically, House Republicans.

– Speaker Mike Johnson and the House GOP leadership are planning on putting their multi-trillion dollar budget resolution on the floor on Tuesday. That leaves less than one day in session for Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer to get their rank-and-file members in line before the high-stakes vote.

If this vote goes forward – and we’re not entirely confident it’ll take place on Tuesday – it’ll be after 6 p.m., sources tell us. As always, the timing of any vote could easily shift. The other big issue here is attendance. Leadership on both sides is working to make sure everyone shows up.

– It’s getting into crunch time for funding the government. There are just 18 days until federal agencies – already under extraordinary pressure thanks to the DOGE initiative – run out of money. GOP and Democratic appropriators don’t have a topline spending deal yet. As we’ve told you repeatedly, Democrats are insisting on restrictions on President Donald Trump’s authority to spend funds as Congress mandates. Republicans say they’re not interested in limiting what Trump can do.

– House Republicans are coming back into town after some lawmakers heard an earful about Elon Musk’s DOGE effort. This was, in part, drummed up by Democratic allies looking to pressure House Republicans on Musk’s slash-and-burn efforts. More on DOGE below.

The budget resolution. Just before the House left for the weeklong Presidents’ Day recess, the House Budget Committee advanced a spending blueprint that would, in theory, allow passage of Trump’s legislative agenda to get through Congress in one massive reconciliation package.

Johnson and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) spent a lot of political capital convincing Trump to side with the House over the Senate, which is aiming for two reconciliation bills. The theory here being that if Trump wanted permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts, he’d need to have it passed in one package.

Trump endorsed the House GOP plan, which doesn’t allow the budgetary room to permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts plus enact the president’s other priorities, including eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime and the SALT cap. Permanent extension of the 2017 cuts has a $4.7 trillion price tag. This resolution, at most, has $4 trillion in space for tax cuts.

Let’s talk about timing. Scheduling a Tuesday vote is, of course, a risk. Before the announcement, we assumed that House GOP leaders would want to take all week to whip members before bringing the resolution up for a vote.

The GOP leadership is trying to create some urgency for lawmakers to get on board quickly. This would give the House the upper hand in negotiations with Senate Republicans. A vote for the House GOP resolution is a vote to proceed with the president’s “full agenda,” they argue.

Remember: Johnson can lose just one vote on the floor if all members are present. And plenty of House Republicans are scared about what it means to vote for $880 billion in cuts to programs under the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s purview, cuts that will almost certainly include Medicaid.

Here’s one no: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said on X Sunday night that she’s “a no on the current version” of the budget resolution.

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) has said she’s a “lean no.” Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), the chair of the Hispanic Conference who represents a large district on the U.S.-Mexico border, sent Johnson a letter raising concerns about cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and Pell Grants. That letter was co-signed by Malliotakis, Reps. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.). Gonzales and members of the GOP Hispanic Conference will meet with Johnson this evening.

Then there are swing district members like Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who also told us he’s concerned about Medicaid cuts.

Of course, the resolution doesn’t actually stipulate which cuts Republicans have to make. But Democrats are going to say Republicans are slashing Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs.

Government funding. Today is Feb. 24. On March 14, the federal government will run out of money. There’s no top-line funding deal. The two sides claim they’re not at an impasse, but the truth is that they are.

Johnson needs Democrats to get a funding bill through the House. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs Democrats to get it through the Senate.

But if you look at the incentive structure right now, it is not in any way in Democrats’ interest to help Republicans on anything. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday that “Republicans have the House, the Senate and the presidency. It is their responsibility to govern.”

Democrats want new restrictions on how Trump and his administration spend government money. Republicans aren’t going anywhere near this.

But some Republicans think the House can pass a clean CR through the end of the year. We’ll see if they can.

Speaker office news. AJ Sugarman is joining Johnson’s staff as deputy policy director. Sugarman was a policy adviser to Scalise and worked in Trump’s first administration in legislative affairs and OMB. Johnson said he is “excited” Sugarman is joining. He will handle the appropriations and budget portfolio.

– Jake Sherman

DOGE

Medicaid cuts, DOGE chaos makes some Republicans wary

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has clearly had enough of Elon Musk and his DOGE initiative.

A day after the mega-billionaire declared that federal employees must justify their jobs or get fired, the veteran senator pushed back at Musk.

“Our public workforce deserves to be treated with dignity and respect for the unheralded jobs they perform. The absurd weekend email to justify their existence wasn’t it,” Murkowski tweeted.

Giddy after their Election Day romp in November, which included winning full control of Washington, Republicans now have to deliver on President Donald Trump’s agenda. That includes delivering on Trump’s promise to extend his 2017 tax cuts, the biggest legislative achievement from the first term.

Yet this time, Trump and Hill Republicans are facing a much dicier economic landscape than eight years ago. Their margins of control aren’t nearly as big. The national debt is nearly twice as large, with the deficit already running at a staggering $1.9 trillion annually. To extend the 2017 tax cuts without further blowing up the deficit or the U.S. government’s fiscal outlook, Republicans may be forced to make huge cuts to Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs. That will come with a steep political price for vulnerable GOP lawmakers.

On top of that is DOGE, the scale and speed of which wasn’t anticipated during the campaign.

Murkowski joins a handful of other Senate Republicans who have objected – at varying levels — to the oftentimes chaotic DOGE rollout. Beyond Murkowski, GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), John Curtis (Utah), Katie Britt (Ala.) and Bill Cassidy (La.) have also raised concerns publicly about what’s happening.

Lawmakers are only finding out what Musk is up to on X, formerly known as Twitter, or media reports, which only makes them more unsure about how to respond. While this has worked for Musk and the White House to help keep Democrats off balance, GOP lawmakers and aides are operating largely in the same information vacuum.

For instance, House and Senate authorizers and appropriators still don’t have a clear picture of what’s happening to $40 billion in annual U.S. foreign aid after USAID was absorbed into the State Department and nearly 10,000 employees were laid off.

DOGE and Medicaid protests – some organized by progressive groups including Indivisible and Moveon.org – took place across several swing House districts during the Presidents’ Day recess. Lawmakers ranging from Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), Ryan MacKenzie (R-Pa.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and others faced complaints at town hall meetings, outside their district offices and events during this period.

Even House GOP lawmakers in safe red districts have faced some protests. This included Republican Reps. Pete Sessions (Texas), Rich McCormick (Ga.), Glenn Grothman (Wis.), Scott Fitzgerald (Wis.) and Morgan Griffith (R-Va.).

Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Ohio) said during a business group luncheon that some of Trump’s executive orders were “getting out of control,” according to the Columbus Dispatch.

“Congress has to decide whether or not the Department of Education goes away,” said Balderson, who represents an R +18 district. “Not the president, not Elon Musk. Congress decides.”

Balderson later posted a tweet appearing to walk back some of those comments.

– John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Senate week: Labor pick on the ropes, more GOP Ukraine in-fighting

The Senate is on track to confirm more of President Donald Trump’s nominees on the floor this week, but one top Cabinet pick still needs to clear a crucial hurdle while a senior Pentagon nominee is scheduled to meet with skeptical GOP senators.

Up first on the floor: Senators will take a procedural vote tonight on Daniel Driscoll’s nomination to serve as secretary of the Army, with a confirmation vote possibly to follow. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also teed up Jamieson Greer’s nomination for U.S. trade representative.

The floor vote on Greer’s nomination will fall mostly along party lines. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) was the only Democrat to back Greer’s nomination in the Finance Committee’s vote earlier this month. Other Democrats could be in play for the floor vote, though Trump’s aggressive tariff regime is likely to limit additional Democratic support.

Does Chavez-DeRemer have a path? The Senate HELP Committee will vote Thursday on Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination to serve as labor secretary.

It remains unclear whether Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will back her nomination. Paul had pointed to Chavez-DeRemer’s previous support for the PRO Act — a Democratic pro-labor bill — as a “deal-killer” for him.

However, during a confirmation hearing last week, Chavez-DeRemer disavowed her past support for the legislation and committed to protecting state right-to-work laws.

If Paul votes no, then Chavez-DeRemer would need a Democratic vote in committee to advance to the floor. That’s not entirely out of the question given Chavez-DeRemer’s more moderate approach compared to other Trump nominees. But don’t forget that Democrats are generally less interested in backing Trump’s picks than they were a few weeks ago.

Crucial meetings for Pentagon nom: Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for the No. 3 job at the Pentagon, is scheduled to meet with a handful of GOP senators this week as Republicans look to use Colby’s nomination to secure commitments from the Trump administration on national security and defense policy.

As we wrote last week, a few of the more hawkish Senate Republicans have privately raised concerns about Colby’s foreign policy views, most notably on Iran and the Middle East. One of those Republicans is Senate GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton, who we’re told is expected to meet with Colby this week.

Colby’s confirmation hearing hasn’t been scheduled yet, but we’re told it’s expected to take place next Tuesday, March 4.

Ukraine: Today marks the third anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. On Sunday, Moscow launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the war began. There was also a major diplomatic row at the UN over the weekend as the U.S. tried to quash a Ukraine-drafted resolution over language that blames Russia for the war.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” said it was “complicated” when asked whether he agrees that Russia started the war unprovoked.

All of these developments are sure to deepen concerns among Senate GOP hawks about the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to end the conflict.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

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What we’re watching

Monday: The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to prepare the budget resolution and two CRAs for floor consideration.

Tuesday: The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Troy Edgar to be deputy secretary of Homeland Security and former Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) to be deputy director of OMB.

The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing to consider Stephen Feinberg’s nomination to be deputy secretary of defense.

The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on policies to counter China.

The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing about ending the “weaponization” of the Justice Department.

The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing on American trade enforcement priorities.

The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Michael Kratsios to be the director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and Mark Meador to be a Federal Trade commissioner.

The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on birthright citizenship.

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on “strengthening public and private markets by increasing investor access and facilitating capital formation.”

The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on PBMs.

The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has a hearing on how foreign aid “undermined U.S. interests around the world.”

Thursday: Senate Homeland will vote on Edgar and Bishop’s nominations.

The Senate HELP Committee will hold a vote on former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s (R-Ore.) nomination to be labor secretary. They will also consider Keith Sonderling’s nomination to be deputy secretary of labor.

The Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Dr. Stephan Miran to be CEA chair; Jeffrey Kessler to be under secretary of commerce; Bill Pulte to be FHFA director; Jonathan McKernan to be director of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.

The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing to vote on Steven Bradbury’s nomination to be deputy secretary of transportation.

The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for John Phelan’s nomination to serve as secretary of the Navy.

– Jake Sherman

AND THERE’S MORE

Reconciliation news: Here’s a memo we obtained from the progressive group Immigration Hub that is being sent to every House Democratic office. The memo calls on Democrats to “reject Trump’s mass deportation funding.” It’s a notable effort given that Senate Democratic messaging on last week’s GOP budget resolution ignored immigration to focus on tax policy.

Downtown Download: Elisabeth Pearson, the former executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, is joining Three Point Media as a partner.

Novo Nordisk has hired Checkmate Government Relations to lobby on “[i]ssues and legislation related to anti-obesity medications, drug pricing, and pharmaceutical supply chain.”

Braves Holdings, which owns the Atlanta Braves, has hired Freeman Mathis Decisions to lobby on “Proposed 162m Tax Code Changes.” That provision deals with the deductibility of executive compensation.

NFL Enterprises LLC has hired Hogan Lovells to lobby on drone issues.

American Express has hired Mayer Brown to lobby on the implementation of tax regulations and policies.

ExxonMobil has hired Steptoe to interpret a Cuba sanctions law from 1996.

– Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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