The Big Four and the DHS shutdown

IN THIS EDITION

The Big Four, Trump and DHS

Progressive Mejia on brink of N.J. upset

Virginia Dems drop new map

Luna says she’ll push SAVE Act in FISA renewal

Boehner will fundraise for Scalise

THE TOP

The Big Four, Trump and DHS

Happy Friday morning.

Congress is once again in a crisis. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security will run out one week from today, and Congress is miles from a solution.

The political dynamics surrounding the DHS funding fight are starting to feel a lot like those that played out during the disastrous 43-day full government shutdown in October and November.

While the current clash is more limited in scope, we’ve already seen Hill leaders retreat comfortably to their partisan corners. One of the reasons why last year’s shutdown lasted so long was because of a similar incentive structure.

Let’s dig into what’s happening and why.

Schumer and Jeffries. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reacted quickly to the Jan. 24 fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, announcing just hours later that Senate Democrats wouldn’t provide the votes to pass a massive FY2026 funding package unless the DHS portion was stripped out. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — who previously has seen some of his members vote with Republicans on DHS funding — had a united caucus as well.

In the immediate aftermath of Pretti’s death, it was clear that Democrats had the upper hand. Republicans were largely acknowledging Democrats’ concerns, and even President Donald Trump made some conciliatory moves. That included agreeing to Democrats’ demand that the DHS funding bill be dealt with separately while negotiations began.

But once the reworked funding measure was kicked back to the House, Jeffries broke with Schumer and voted against the package. The Schumer-Jeffries split caused Republicans to question whether Democrats were actually serious about getting a DHS deal.

Schumer and Jeffries keep saying that they’re on the same page, although they need to do more than just say it, according to Republicans. The Democratic leaders’ insistence that the DHS measure could be renegotiated within just two weeks ignored the reality of how long it would take to agree to detailed legislative language and push it through both chambers.

Schumer and Jeffries pushed for the shorter timeline out of a belief that they needed to capitalize on the national momentum Democrats have following the Pretti shooting. That’s a fair consideration. Yet Schumer and Jeffries didn’t release their detailed list of demands for ICE reforms until less than 36 hours ago.

The more immediate issue facing Schumer and Jeffries is whether to help provide the votes for another short-term funding extension for DHS ahead of next Friday’s deadline.

While progressives have been clamoring for a DHS shutdown, it’s important to remember that ICE is already fully funded through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. A DHS shutdown would only impact unrelated but critical services, such as TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard.

Yet the Democratic base won’t like any deal that isn’t fully on Democratic terms, which is a big problem for Jeffries in particular. The pair of New York Democrats face some sensitive political maneuvering in the near term even as the overall political landscape favors them.

Thune and Johnson. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House ultimately agreed to Democrats’ demand to separate DHS from the rest of the funding package, reasoning that it was better to isolate the shutdown fight to DHS and keep everything else open.

They also knew that public outrage over the shooting deaths of Pretti and Renee Good at the hands of federal agents threatened to undermine Trump’s harsh immigration enforcement agenda, and they needed to take some sort of action in response. The White House’s decision to split off the DHS funding bill — thereby creating a path for a negotiation over measures to rein in ICE — was a reflection of that political reality.

But it quickly became clear that Trump’s MAGA allies on the Hill would resist any attempts by Democrats to restrict the president’s mass deportation campaign. Johnson and Thune soon had demands of their own, including crackdowns on so-called sanctuary cities — policies that have long been non-starters for Democrats.

The ultimate concern for Johnson and Thune is that Trump may just decide to go his own way and cut a deal with Democrats. The president is clearly uninterested in a shutdown of any length. Democrats are gambling that Trump will abandon Thune and Johnson — just like he did when he agreed with Schumer to pass the two-week CR.

As for next Friday’s DHS funding deadline, Thune and Johnson will need to decide soon whether to pursue another short-term funding patch or try to jam Democrats with a year-long CR. Senate Democrats have all the leverage here.

While Republicans will slam Democrats for a TSA-FEMA-Coast Guard funding lapse, Thune and Johnson really don’t want a shutdown either. Remember, public polling showed during the last full government shutdown that Americans largely blamed Republicans even though it was Democrats who instigated the shutdown fight.

There are plenty of pitfalls ahead for Johnson and Thune. Johnson has a one-vote margin and will have to navigate choppy waters to even get a CR on the floor next week. And Thune has to get 60 votes in a Senate where Democrats feel emboldened to just say no.

Also. In our PM edition, we scooped that Trump offered to unfreeze money for the Gateway infrastructure project if Schumer would support naming Washington-Dulles International Airport and Penn Station after the president. Schumer said no, Trump can just do it on his own. Thousands of Gateway Program layoffs could start today.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

ICYMI: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) joined us Thursday for a conversation on funding research and treatment for cures of chronic diseases. She also discussed the standoff over DHS funding. Read all about it here. You can also watch the full video here.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Progressive Mejia on brink of N.J. upset

Analilia Mejia is on the precipice of a huge political upset and notching a major progressive victory in the New Jersey Democratic political machine’s home turf.

Despite being heavily outspent by other candidates and groups, Mejia was leading former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) by 486 votes in the special Democratic primary for the state’s 11th District as of press time. That’s currently a margin of .79 percentage points in an incredibly tight race that the AP has not called yet, even with 91% of ballots counted.

“While every vote must still be counted, Analilia Mejia’s performance is historic. Analilia shocked the New Jersey political establishment,” Antoinette Miles, the New Jersey Working Families Party state director, said in a triumphant statement. “Voters are hungry for working-class leaders.”

Referencing premature calls for Malinowski earlier in the evening, Mejia posted the famous picture of President-elect Harry Truman holding a newspaper with the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline.

This race is so tight that we may have to wait for mail-in ballots to be counted.

The AIPAC angle. Mejia’s surge can’t be separated from the millions of dollars spent by pro-Israel groups hammering Malinowski.

Many are wondering what on earth was AIPAC thinking? Their avalanche of spending appears set to help usher in Mejia, a candidate who has been critical of Israel and who said Israel is committing a “genocide” in Gaza, which is far more strident than any Malinowski criticism of the Jewish State.

United Democracy Project, the AIPAC’s super PAC, pumped more than $2.3 million into the special primary election to attack Malinowski. This was bizarre because AIPAC had backed Malinowski in previous elections.

Now, Mejia — a progressive who helped run Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) 2020 campaign — is within striking distance of winning the primary. Practically every leading progressive — including Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — endorsed Mejia. Many campaigned alongside Mejia in the race’s closing days.

Malinowski’s transgression in AIPAC’s view? Expressing a willingness to condition aid to Israel. It’s a position that has become far more common among House Democrats in the wake of Israel’s brutal military campaign in Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 terror attacks.

Yet Mejia is far tougher on Israel. Mejia believes Israel is committing genocide and pledged that she wouldn’t visit Israel on an AIPAC-sponsored trip. Here’s what Mejia said on Oct. 10, 2023, three days after Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel:

“Every fiber of my being is horrified beyond words at what is furthering in Gaza. Yet again we see how oppression & dehumanization leads to despair & unthinkable destruction.” Mejia called for a ceasefire two weeks later.

We should note that Mejia didn’t make U.S.-Israel relations a central plank of her campaign, instead focusing more on cost-of-living issues.

Malinowski started the primary race as the frontrunner, having represented a nearby district in the same media market from 2019 to 2023. But the barrage of negative spending against him knocked down his support.

Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way is on track for third place after a late infusion of aid from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association’s outside group and a mysteriously funded super PAC.

UDP declined to say which candidate they preferred in the race. But Malinowski told us AIPAC indicated to him that they wanted Way to win.

The seat is open because Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill vacated the district after she won her gubernatorial race last November.

But pro-Israel groups will have a chance to try again. Mejia will have to run in the primary in June for a full term.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

REDISTRICTING WATCH

Virginia Dems drop new map

Democrats in the Virginia legislature unveiled a redistricting proposal Thursday night after days of internecine sparring over the layout.

The map creates eight reliably Democratic districts, one safe Republican seat and two competitive districts. It’s likely to achieve the desired 10D-1R split this November because the environment strongly favors Democrats. But Democrats will probably still have to spend money to win.

And there’s a long way to go before the new map takes effect. Voters will have to OK a mid-decade gerrymander by the legislature in an April referendum. Republicans have launched a slew of court challenges.

But should all go to their plan, Democrats could net four more House seats, a huge for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the party. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R.

The map. The most competitive district is anchored in Virginia Beach. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won it by one point in 2024. Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) plans to run again in a rematch against Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.).

The other purple seat is the 6th District, which snakes through Central Virginia’s college towns from Harrisonburg to Charlottesville and out west. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.), author Beth Macy and state Del. Sam Rasoul could run in the Democratic primary. Harris won this seat by three points.

The new 7th District leans blue and stretches from Fairfax out, forming a Y shape around Charlottesville. Look for Virginia state Del. Dan Helmer to run here. Rep. Eugene Vindman’s (D-Va.) seat was renumbered to the 1st District.

The new 5th District is a Harris+8 seat stretching from the Richmond suburbs westward. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor is likely to run here.

The lone GOP seat spans the western portion of the state.

Rep. James Walkinshaw’s (D-Va.) district now runs from Fairfax to the Shenandoah Valley. Rep. Don Beyer’s (D-Va.) seat stretches from Alexandria down to Yorktown. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) was drawn into this district, which Harris won by 18 points.

The numbers. It’s worth noting that Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger won 10 of the state’s 11 seats last November with 55% or more. Spanberger had an unusually strong win and a flawed opponent, but her margins in the revised districts are a good sign this map will perform well for Democrats.

But privately, some Democrats questioned why two of the districts remain so competitive by 2024 presidential numbers. The 2nd and 6th districts could easily draw millions of dollars in outside spending by GOP-aligned groups. And while Democrats are favored in both, victory is not certain.

— Ally Mutnick

FLY OUT DAY

Luna says she’ll push SAVE Act in FISA renewal

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) finds herself in the middle of everything these days. Earlier this Congress, the two-term lawmaker pushed to allow remote voting for new mothers in Congress. And Luna is also leading an effort to ban stock trading by members.

Luna is now in the middle of trying to force the Senate to blow up the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, a bill that would require Americans to prove their citizenship before voting in federal elections. This isn’t going to happen, so Luna has a backup plan.

Luna told us on Fly Out Day that she will pressure Speaker Mike Johnson to attach the SAVE America Act to a reauthorization of FISA, a high-risk move that could complicate the passage of the surveillance law. Congress needs to reauthorize FISA by April 20.

“I voted against FISA,” Luna told us. “I’ve never voted for FISA reauthorization in its current form … The only way, I think, to do it right before the midterms will be on this.”

Luna says House Republican leadership, specifically Johnson, is in favor of her play here. That may be more talk than reality. FISA is an incredibly hard reauthorization issue with a vote coalition that cuts across party lines. Typically, the bill passes with support from members of the House Intelligence and Armed Services panels, plus leadership types from both parties.

The House Republican leadership will have the SAVE America Act on the floor next week. But the Senate is sure to ignore it.

We talked to Luna about her effort to blow up the filibuster, her view of Johnson’s performance and her relationship with Vladimir Putin’s government in Russia.

Watch Fly Out Day here.

– Jake Sherman

MONEY GAME

Boehner will fundraise for Scalise

Former Speaker John Boehner will hold a fundraiser with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise in April.

It will cost $5,000 to attend or $10,000 to be listed as a host. The beneficiary of the fundraiser is the Scalise Leadership Fund, which funnels money to Scalise’s PAC, his reelection campaign and the NRCC.

The co-hosts of this event include Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.), former chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee; former Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.); Tommy Andrews, a former aide to Boehner and former Speaker Paul Ryan; and Dave Schnittger, another top Boehner aide.

Boehner, Shuster, Andrews, Kingston and Schnittger all work at Squire Patton Boggs, the law firm and lobbying shop.

Scalise jumped into the GOP leadership in 2014 after then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary campaign. Scalise served on the leadership team with Boehner until the Ohio Republican retired in 2015.

– Jake Sherman

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