The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

A new era on Capitol Hill for Israel

Deadline on spending bills nears even as Johnson wants more deadlines

The GOP preps an anti-abortion message. Will it work?

Hudson’s take on the House outlook

THE TOP

A new era on Capitol Hill for Israel

Happy Friday morning.

For decades, support for Israel and its leaders was unquestioned in Congress. U.S. politicians never criticized the Jewish state, certainly not in public — and certainly never called for a change in government.

But Thursday was an extraordinary moment, one that underscores how the war in Gaza and the controversy over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have permanently altered the Democratic Party’s relationship with one of America’s closest allies.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in U.S. history, went to the Senate floor and called for new elections to replace Netanyahu. Schumer also suggested that restrictions on U.S. aid may be necessary in order to pressure the Israeli government to change direction.

Minutes later, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell slammed Schumer’s remarks as “grotesque” and “unprecedented.” Other Republicans followed suit. Israeli officials piled on as well. Amir Ohana, the speaker of the Knesset, said Schumer’s “words contravene the reciprocal respect that should define our relationship.”

Michael Herzog, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, said Schumer’s remarks were “counterproductive to our common goals.” Herzog was at the House Republican retreat Thursday, where he did a question-and-answer session behind closed doors with GOP lawmakers. Herzog also spoke to Senate Republicans the day before.

Dems reel: The friction over the U.S.-Israel relationship has only worsened following the horrific Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas. Israel’s ferocious military campaign against Hamas in Gaza — which has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead or injured — has set off a political firestorm across the United States, especially inside the Democratic Party.

Progressives on and off Capitol Hill are angry with President Joe Biden and party leaders over their continued support for Israel. Democratic events regularly feature loud protests over the war, while younger Democrats threaten to stay home in November.

Biden, who bearhugged Netanyahu during an Oct. 18 visit to Israel, has been left looking increasingly powerless to end the war or even bring about a temporary ceasefire. Biden was caught on a hot mic following the State of the Union saying a “Come to Jesus” moment was near with Netanyahu, and top administration officials hosted Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz in Washington last week.

The White House also was aware of what Schumer would say, although that doesn’t mean administration officials endorse his comments.

The fallout: Republicans have urged total support for Israel, arguing that now isn’t the time to second-guess Netanyahu or Israel’s conduct of the war. They refuse to consider limits or restrictions on American aid. And they were infuriated by Schumer’s comments.

“What [Schumer] said today was earth-shatteringly bad,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a longtime friend of Netanyahu. “The majority leader of the United States Senate is calling on the people of Israel to overthrow their government.”

But progressives, in particular, were ecstatic, seeing it as a chance for a reset in how the Biden administration will deal with Israel. Democrats want Biden to start using the United States’ leverage over Israel to prompt a course correction in that country’s political landscape.

“It’s a new era. It’s the beginning, I believe,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) told us. “How can we continue pretending that we back our policies when we’re saying yes to Netanyahu no matter how much he disregards them? We’re for a two-state solution, he’s against it. We’re for stopping settlements in the West Bank, Netanyahu is for it.”

At the center of everything is Netanyahu, of course. His 16-plus nonconsecutive years as Israel’s leader have been marked by tense debates in Washington over his frequent alignment with Republican positions while never completely disavowing Democrats.

That’s certainly changed, as evidenced by Schumer’s criticism Thursday of Netanyahu’s “governing vision that is stuck in the past.” Other Democrats were quick to justify Schumer’s comments by pointing to Netanyahu’s open hostility toward the Obama administration’s efforts on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“It should not come to anybody’s surprise who’s followed this issue,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) said of the longtime Israeli leader. “Prime Minister Netanyahu has never been shy about expressing his preferences in American politics.”

Yet several Democrats we spoke with after Schumer’s speech wouldn’t go as far as he did in calling for new elections, even as they praised the New York Democrat’s remarks.

“The question of whether there’s a new election ought to be for the Israelis to decide,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said. “But I think there are very legitimate and strong questions that Sen. Schumer has raised.”

One top Democrat, though, acknowledged that the U.S.-Israel relationship is “fraying.” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us that Israel is “underestimating the extent to which their current war plan is isolating them in the international community, including in the United States.”

“It’s a very serious rift, but friends have rifts,” Schatz added. “Nothing can be done to make Israel safe if what’s being done creates a situation where Israel is alone.”

Impeachment news: White House Counsel Edward Siskel wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson urging the top House Republican to end the impeachment inquiry into Biden. This is the first outreach from Biden’s top White House lawyer directly to Johnson. It also shows how Biden is going on offense against the GOP investigators in the now six-month-old probe.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

THE SPENDING WARS

Deadline on spending bills nears even as Johnson wants more deadlines

News: Speaker Mike Johnson told House Republicans at the annual House GOP retreat this week that he may create four government funding deadlines next year instead of two, according to multiple sources.

This year, Johnson pushed for and was able to split the 12 annual spending bills into two different deadlines, which Congress is still struggling over. Johnson said that next year, he’d consider splitting the 12 bills across four deadlines if Republicans are still in charge.

Also at the House GOP retreat, held at The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., Johnson tried again to prepare rank-and-file Republicans to be disappointed with the policy outcomes in the spending bills.

“In a time of divided government, when we only control one-half of one-third of the federal government and we have a two-vote majority, we know that we’re not going to get the bills that are our preference,” Johnson warned.

Johnson’s comments come as House and Senate leaders are scrambling to wrap up the six remaining spending bills from FY2024. The Homeland Security funding bill has become a huge problem in the bicameral talks.

We reported on Thursday that Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the top Senate GOP appropriator, told Republicans behind closed doors that she didn’t see a path to a bipartisan deal on Homeland Security funding.

With the stalemate continuing, appropriators have begun drafting a continuing resolution to fund DHS through the end of this fiscal year. Another possibility is a short-term stopgap that buys more time for negotiations on the Homeland bill while Congress votes on the five other bills.

However, there’s still no deal yet on funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which oversees aid for Palestinians. This is part of the State and Foreign Operations funding bill.

Republicans are looking to block UNRWA funding amid an investigation into whether some of its employees were involved in Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attacks. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), the top Republican on the State-Foreign Ops subcommittee, said Thursday he won’t support “one dime” in funding for UNRWA.

Democrats say they want to ensure that the funding continues for UNRWA’s activities outside of Gaza, including in Jordan.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

THE HOUSE GOP

The GOP preps an anti-abortion message. Will it work?

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — After getting outspent and out-messaged on abortion rights during the 2022 midterm elections, House Republican leadership knows the issue is a major problem for their candidates in 2024. Instead of trying to ignore the battle over abortion access, the topic has come up time and again during the GOP retreat this week.

The GOP solution? Urge Republicans in tough races to aggressively confront Democratic attacks and define their own positions on the campaign trail. But it remains to be seen whether tackling the issue head-on will blunt Democratic gains.

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson insisted to us in an interview that Republicans have a “branding problem” on abortion rights, not a policy problem.

“Most voters think Republicans’ position is a very narrow, extreme position, which it’s not,” Hudson said. “There is no one Republican position. A lot of candidates have a lot of different positions, from states’ rights to reasonable limits.”

Hudson was expanding on an NRCC memo first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The guidance to candidates — which Hudson said was backed up by polling and focus groups in battleground districts — echoed what the NRCC chair told reporters in the fall.

The problem for Republicans: Public polling has shown the electorate largely favors increased access to abortion.

→	A recent Quinnipiac poll from the crucial swing state of Michigan found two-thirds of voters think abortion should be legal in either all cases or most cases. Just 28% of respondents polled said abortion should be illegal in either most cases or all cases.

→	In November, a WSJ-NORC poll found nationwide support for abortion access nearing a record high.

With numbers like this, will better messaging really make a difference? House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik thinks so.

“We believe it’s important for our members to engage on this issue and not stick their heads in the sand, which I think some potential candidates had done in the past,” Stefanik told reporters at the retreat.

Beyond encouraging candidates to speak about their own abortion stances, leadership wants the party to go on the attack.

“It’s Democrats who are the radicals on this. They want taxpayer-funded abortions. They want to repeal the Hyde Amendment and they support late-term abortion,” Stefanik said.

Of course, voters didn’t agree with that point of view in 2022.

And Democrats argue they are simply seeking to codify Roe into law. The party’s messaging doesn’t delve into any restrictions on abortion. Instead, Democrats say those decisions are best left to women and their doctors, not politicians.

How vulnerable Republicans will message: GOP incumbents like Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) said they expect to tell voters on the trail that abortion policy isn’t the purview of the federal government.

“Democrats are going to try and make it an issue, but it’s a non-issue. I think states are dealing with it at the state level,” Duarte told us.

– Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Hudson’s take on the House outlook

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — We sat down with NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, the man in charge of protecting the House GOP majority, during the Republican retreat this week. The North Carolina Republican is vowing that not only will Republicans keep the House, they’ll expand their majority.

It’s a bold claim. Here’s how Hudson is viewing the 2024 House map:

Key open seats: Hudson identified four competitive open seats — Michigan’s 7th District, Michigan’s 8th District, California’s 47th District and Virginia’s 7th District — as prime GOP targets. All four are currently held by Democrats who are leaving Congress. Republicans see opportunities to win these districts with the incumbents — Reps. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), Dan Kildee (Mich.), Katie Porter (Calif.) and Abigail Spanberger (Va.) — out of the picture.

Michigan moment: Hudson predicted that Republicans will perform far better in Michigan this cycle compared to 2022.

Last cycle, Hudson said that the GOP struggled due to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s well-funded gubernatorial campaign and a statewide abortion initiative that juiced Democratic turnout.

This time, Hudson is much more optimistic about the Wolverine State, predicting both former President Donald Trump and GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers will win statewide.

“Tom Barrett is running a stronger campaign this time, raising money and he’s got a much weaker opponent,” Hudson said, referring to the likely general election matchup in the 7th District between Barrett, a former GOP state senator, and Democrat Curtis Hertel.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents: While Hudson said the NRCC is aiming to knock off all five Democrats who represent Trump-won seats, he singled out Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Matt Cartwright (Pa.) in particular.

Hudson touted both of their likely general election opponents as prime recruits.

“We’ve got kind of a fresh start with Austin Theriault,” Hudson said, referring to Golden’s challenger. “Him being a NASCAR guy got me excited. But he’s also from a multigenerational Maine family and a state legislator. He’s very popular.”

Over in Cartwright’s northeastern Pennsylvania seat, Hudson hailed Republican Rob Bresnahan as a longtime resident known in the community thanks to his family’s traffic light business.

“I think our problem in the past is we haven’t had someone with deep roots in the district,” Hudson said. It’s a reference to failed 2020 and 2022 candidate Jim Bognet, who Democrats painted as a D.C. lobbyist in campaign messaging.

“Bresnahan is a union guy who’s deeply embedded in the district,” Hudson said. “He’s a great campaigner.”

A wild card: Hudson said one vulnerable Democrat flying under the radar is freshman Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.).

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

Wyden and Crapo reject tax counteroffers, and a new FAA letter

Tax news: Talks between the Senate Finance Committee’s top tax writers are at an impasse, imperiling the Wyden-Smith tax bill.

Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) traded offers this week on changes to the bill to get the GOP conference on board, but nothing stuck, according to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations.

First, Crapo asked for a set of revisions. But Wyden rejected them because he believed the child tax credit edits would lose too much support among Democrats and kill the bill, according to a Wyden aide.

Wyden then made a counteroffer to drop the piece of the child tax credit expansion that’s drawn a lot of Senate GOP pushback — allowing families to use prior-year earnings to qualify for benefits.

In its place, Wyden offered to replace this provision with a different child credit boost that would still focus on aiding lower-income families and cutting child poverty, per the aide. Democrats also offered some additions to the bill for Republicans. Crapo rejected that offer.

A key problem here is that boosting the child tax credit for families who owe little or no income taxes is what brought Democrats to the table, but Crapo and his allies oppose the bill’s focus on boosting refundability. Neither side seems willing to cross its line on this issue. And some Republicans would rather end the talks and address these tax issues next year. It’s all leading to some grim reviews of the bill’s chances.

Eye on the skies … FAA news: The four Democratic senators from Maryland and Virginia have a new letter out to the House and Senate transportation committee chairs asking them to reject any new long-haul flights to Washington Reagan National Airport.

You may remember that Delta Air Lines is pushing hard for outside-the-perimeter flights from DCA. United Airlines is opposed. The House defeated an amendment attempting to add the flights. The Senate included the provision in its version.

Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) write in the letter that DCA is overburdened and cannot handle any more flights.

— Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS