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IN THIS EDITION

Homeland Security funding fight threatens spending deal

Biden jokes as House GOP stalls on impeachment

What we’re watching

Bagel Caucus resurfaces

THE TOP

Homeland Security funding fight threatens spending deal

Happy Monday morning.

Welcome to another government shutdown week.

At midnight Friday, funding runs out for six big annual spending bills: State-Foreign Operations, Defense, Homeland Security, Labor-HHS, Legislative Branch and Financial Services-General Government. These bills cover roughly three-quarters of all federal discretionary spending.

Yet as of late Sunday night — following another unsuccessful call between aides to the Big Four congressional leaders and White House officials — there’s still no agreement on the second minibus package.

This is due to a dispute over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which was always going to be a problem. The issue is a continuing resolution to fund DHS at the FY2023 funding level through Sept. 30. This is in lieu of a normal appropriations bill for FY2024. But the two sides can’t even reach a deal on that CR. The same issues remain — how much to spend on Border Patrol officers, how much for shelter and detention beds for undocumented migrants, and more.

The remaining five bills are essentially wrapped up. In fact, GOP and Democratic leaders thought they had an agreement on the overall minibus package heading into Sunday before the White House stepped in to make new demands on the Homeland CR.

Over the weekend, the White House warned Hill negotiators that President Joe Biden would veto the CR proposal. The Biden administration wanted more flexibility on “anomalies” to ensure they could shift around money to deal with new or evolving problems at the U.S.-Mexico border. Anomalies are “exceptions to the duration, amount, or purposes” for which appropriated funds may be used.

Additionally, the White House was asking for a pay equity provision for Transportation Security Administration workers. Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to get more money for beds and detention facilities for migrants.

The White House clearly thinks it has the upper hand here due to Republicans killing the bipartisan Senate border deal recently.

The stalemate means a (partial) government shutdown is back on the table. We still don’t expect it to happen, but there’s definitely a chance. A low-impact shutdown next weekend seems possible. And on the first weekend of the NCAA tournament!

We have two points to make here. The first is that it’s five-and-a-half months into FY2024. That a potential government shutdown is still being discussed is mind-boggling. The two sides have known what the funding level for FY2024 would be since last May when the White House and then Speaker Kevin McCarthy inked the Fiscal Responsibility Act. It’s taken more than 10 months just to get to this point.

Secondly, there’s never been a government shutdown anywhere near this late in the fiscal year since the 1976 changeover to the current federal schedule (Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.) We couldn’t find one past mid-January, per the Congressional Research Service.

Besides the DHS hangup, the other contentious issues have been resolved, we’re told.

For example, the two sides were able to find agreement on U.S. aid for the Palestinians. Currently, such aid is funneled through the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA. But after Israel alleged that a dozen UNRWA employees were involved in the Oct. 7 terror attacks by Hamas, the United States froze such aid.

Under the new bipartisan deal, U.S. aid to the Palestinians can’t be routed through UNRWA through at least March 2025, according to multiple GOP and Democratic sources. It must go through other organizations.

Timing issues: Thanks to this latest delay, Congress faces a real time crunch in avoiding a shutdown. House Republican leadership has vowed to give lawmakers 72 hours to review the minibus package before a floor vote.

If the bills are publicly released at some point today, the House can vote on Thursday — one day before the shutdown. That gives the Senate little time to clear this funding package. And Senate leaders have already said they expect this six-bill minibus to be more difficult to process than the first one.

All of which means that, at this point, Congress could stumble into a shutdown.

The politics: If you’re a hardline conservative, what does this deal give you? The House will effectively be locking Biden border policies for another six months with a CR. So they will vote no, of course. They were going to anyway, however.

The expected package of six spending bills will come to the floor as one vehicle. It’ll need 290 votes to pass. A healthy coalition of Democrats and Republicans will send the bill over the finish line.

Also this week: A group of national security-focused House Democrats is strategizing on different ways to force a Ukraine vote this week given the upcoming two-week recess. There are very few legislative options to do that, however, and their leverage will only dwindle after this week. It’s already a long shot.

We do expect House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other top House Democrats to up their pressure campaign on Speaker Mike Johnson over Ukraine as well. But again, Democrats are limited in what they can do.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

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Biden jokes as House GOP stalls on impeachment

House Republicans keep pushing forward on the Biden impeachment inquiry, but if President Joe Biden is worried, he’s not showing it.

Biden made light of the investigations at the Gridiron Dinner in D.C. this weekend:

Ouch. Yet it shows how Biden and top White House officials are feeling right now, especially in the aftermath of last week’s House Judiciary Committee hearing with Special Counsel Robert Hur.

GOP leaders have been under increasing pressure to show some movement on impeachment. The Biden inquiry has been open for six months and shows no signs of wrapping up anytime soon.

Despite the presidential quips, the Oversight Committee will hold yet another hearing on the Biden family this Wednesday. This hearing — “Influence Peddling: Examining Joe Biden’s Abuse of Public Office” — features three witnesses who were involved in the Biden family business activities.

Democrats are dismissing the hearing thanks to the presence of Tony Bobulinski, a former business associate of Hunter Biden who clashed with congressional investigators during an unruly interview this year. Another former Hunter Biden associate, Jason Galanis, will be joining virtually from federal prison. And the third witness, Devon Archer, hasn’t implicated Joe Biden in any wrongdoing.

Hunter Biden was invited to the hearing but will not attend. Biden’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said in a letter that Hunter Biden may show up for a hearing if the committee investigated former President Donald Trump’s family’s business dealings. Lowell previously represented Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.

Outside of impeachment: The House Foreign Affairs Committee, led by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), will hold a hearing on the disastrous 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a critical moment in Biden’s presidency. This is the kind of oversight some Republicans would prefer to conduct.

McCaul has clashed constantly with the State Department over access to Afghanistan withdrawal documents. The Texas Republican is sharply critical of how the administration handled the Afghanistan pullout. McCaul has come close to holding Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt of Congress multiple times during his investigation.

McCaul’s panel will receive testimony from Gen. Mark Milley, the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the former CentCom commander. McKenzie led NATO forces in Afghanistan during the withdrawal.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

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What we’re watching

Monday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing in Tennessee on the SEC’s climate disclosure rule. The House Ways and Means Committee will have a hearing on health care in Denton, Texas.

Tuesday: The House Foreign Affairs Committee will have a hearing on the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Former Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley and former CentCom Commander Kenneth McKenzie will testify.

Wednesday: The House Armed Services Committee will have a hearing on national security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of Defense for the region; Adm. John Aquilino, the U.S. Indo-Pacific commander; and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of the United Nations Command, ROK/US Combined Forces Command and United States Forces Korea will testify.

HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will testify in front of the House Appropriations Committee on their FY2025 budget requests.

House Oversight has a hearing on President Joe Biden. The House Ways and Means Committee will hear from Becerra.

The Federal Open Market Committee will make its announcement on interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference.

Thursday: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will be in front of House Appropriations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be in front of the Senate Finance Committee on the FY2025 budget.

Yellen, OMB Director Shalanda Young and Jared Bernstein, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, will be in front of House Appropriations.

The House Armed Services Committee will hear from John Plumb, the assistant Defense secretary for space policy; Gen. Anthony Cotton, the commander of Strategic Command; Gen. Stephen Whiting, the commander of Space Command; and Gen. Gregory Guillot, the commander of NORAD.

— Jake Sherman

CULINARY COMINGS AND GOINGS

Bagel Caucus resurfaces

It’s tough to say that we’ve been completely happy with the Bagel Caucus’ performance. The group started with so much promise. They opened up their meetings, served bagels to the masses and brought cheer to the Capitol.

The caucus, led by New York Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman, is making some strides to reingratiate itself with the Hill.

As you see above, this Friday, the Bagel Caucus will be celebrating one year in existence. We hope Goldman and the rest of the carb-loving denizens of the Hill will recommit themselves to transparency and open-mindedness in the next year.

— Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

Big Washington State endorsement: Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is endorsing state Sen. Emily Randall in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.). Randall is also backed by Reps. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), in addition to the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC.

This is a huge get for Randall. Senators like Murray getting involved in competitive primaries is rare.

Kilmer is endorsing Hilary Franz, the state’s public lands commissioner, to succeed him.

Ohio chaos: In the frantic final days of the Ohio Senate GOP primary, former President Donald Trump and MAGA world are scrambling to push Bernie Moreno over the finish line.

Moreno is facing a stiff challenge from state Sen. Matt Dolan, the establishment-backed candidate who is neck-and-neck with Moreno ahead of the Tuesday election. Thanks to an AP story connecting Moreno to a dating site — which Moreno claimed was a prank by an intern — and an infusion of pro-Dolan spending, Trump and his allies could face a high-profile primary rebuke.

For months, it looked like the Trump endorsement would propel Moreno to the general election against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). Trump rallied for Moreno on Saturday along with a top-tier list of conservative figures: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem. On Dolan’s side are Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also running in the GOP primary but has trailed both Moreno and Dolan in recent polls.

No matter who wins the primary, Republicans will have spent over $41 million before the must-win general election matchup.

This cycle, Senate Republicans have striven to avoid the bruising primaries that dominated 2022. And given NRSC Chair Steve Daines’ more aggressive endorsement strategy, it’s largely paid off.

But in the must-win Buckeye State, the NRSC has stayed out of the race while an all-out brawl has emerged.

The GOP maintains that whoever emerges to face Brown will be the favorite, given that 2024 is a presidential election year, and Trump is expected to easily win Ohio. And while the final stretch in this primary is messy, it’s nothing compared to the months of negative advertising and nasty disputes that characterized the 2022 GOP Senate primary.

DSCC makes Nevada moves: The DSCC is launching a texting campaign in Nevada to slam GOP Senate candidate Sam Brown’s record on abortion. The group is directing voters to visit a website that shows Brown’s support for restrictive abortion bans. Brown, for what it’s worth, has since said he opposes federal abortion bans and backs Nevada’s permissive state abortion legislation.

— Max Cohen

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