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IN THIS EDITION

Cheat sheet: Senators to watch as GOP pushes Trump agenda

Are Republicans blowing a Florida special election?

The Vault: House Democrats weigh GOP sitdowns as stablecoin markup looms

Hoyer, Approps Dems seeking hearing with Musk and Vought

Two new ad campaigns for you

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Cheat sheet: Senators to watch as GOP pushes Trump agenda

Happy Tuesday morning.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, tax committee chairs and two top Trump administration officials are set to meet today as Republicans look to sync up on a budget blueprint that has long eluded them — and pass it by Easter.

After House GOP leaders and President Donald Trump showed they could convince conservative hardliners to vote for pretty much anything, now it’s Thune’s chance to make the case that it’s his chamber, not Johnson’s, that needs to be prioritized because that’s where the big challenges are.

This is the first time Senate Republicans will be forced to weigh in on the most significant — and politically difficult — elements of Trump’s legislative agenda. This includes hundreds of billions of dollars in potential cuts to Medicaid and social safety net programs to pay for tax cuts, which will be a defining issue for 2026.

Thune, meanwhile, has drawn a red line around making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. Trump wants this as well. But it might become a harder sell for House GOP leaders if Thune needs to secure a range of other changes in a compromise budget resolution.

Keep in mind: Despite the happy talk from Johnson about getting this done in the coming weeks and months, House and Senate Republicans are still not unified on the big questions in reconciliation.

With that in mind, we wanted to run through the GOP senators you should be paying attention to — and Thune already is. “At some point, the House is going to need us,” Thune quipped Monday.

Medicaid: Several Senate Republicans have said they won’t support deep cuts to Medicaid, yet the House GOP budget resolution would likely require slashing Medicaid in order to achieve the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined in that chamber’s resolution.

“I have concerns. We’ve got a lot, a lot, a lot of folks in West Virginia that really depend on Medicaid,” said Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), whose state has among the highest percentage of residents who are Medicaid recipients in the country. Justice said he trusts Trump won’t back cuts that would hurt kids or seniors, but the former governor warned he isn’t “going to just rubber-stamp anything.”

Justice’s fellow West Virginian, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, is also in that group, as are Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).

Even Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a loyal Trump ally, said during a Fox Business interview on Monday that the Medicaid cuts in the House bill could “decimate” his state, adding that Republicans need to “find a way around it.”

During the vote-a-rama on the Senate’s “skinny” budget resolution, Collins and Hawley backed a Democratic amendment barring tax cuts for wealthy Americans if Medicaid reductions are included.

“I’m not gonna vote for something that cuts those folks’ benefits, period,” Hawley told us. “That’s a red line for me, and I think it is for the president. And that’s good.”

Fiscal hawks: Republicans also need to be conscious of senators who want to cut more and remove the debt-limit increase — a Trump priority — from the compromise resolution. The House’s budget plan includes a $4 trillion increase in the nation’s borrowing limit.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) reiterated Monday he’d vote against reconciliation if it includes a debt-limit hike.

Then there’s Sen. Ron Johnson, (R-Wis.) who believes the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined by House Republicans is “totally inadequate.” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) agrees.

“I’m not gonna support any budget resolution that doesn’t return us to some reasonable pre-pandemic [spending] base,” Johnson said in an interview.

Defense hawks: The House GOP budget resolution prescribes a $100 billion defense spending boost. The Senate’s number is $150 billion. Several defense hawks, including Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), believe $150 billion should be the floor, not the ceiling for new defense funding.

Wicker was among the Senate Republicans who backed the recent government funding bill only after getting commitments that the Pentagon shortfall would be addressed through reconciliation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed this with GOP senators at lunch two weeks ago.

But when we asked Wicker if Hegseth is on board, he responded: “I sure hope so.”

“We need to exceed $150 [billion] because of the disappointing number in the continuing resolution,” Wicker said. “I’m hopeful and confident that once we make the case, we can be successful.”

Dem strategy news: Senate Democrats hope to use the reconciliation fight to find some much-needed unity after the CR debacle.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will convene a panel of reconciliation experts for Wednesday’s Democratic lunch, including Mike Evans, a former Finance Committee staffer who worked on the Inflation Reduction Act; ex-OMB staffer and longtime Senate aide Michael Linden; and former CMS administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure.

The goal is to highlight and exploit GOP divisions, particularly on Medicaid cuts.

In the House: House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is hosting Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio for a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill this morning. Dalio is set to talk with GOP lawmakers about the federal debt and reconciliation plans.

House Ways and Means Committee Republicans will hold another closed-door session this week to make decisions on tax plans, per three sources. That huddle is set for Thursday before fly-out votes.

Paging Trump? Sens. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) are introducing a bill to eliminate the federal tax on military retirement benefits. The “Tax Cuts for Veterans Act” is modeled after a similar initiative Ricketts spearheaded as governor.

Ricketts is also introducing a bill to phase out federal taxes on Social Security benefits. The twin efforts align with Trump’s campaign promises to slash taxes in several different areas.

The Michael Waltz-Atlantic flap. The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg’s story about the Trump administration chatting about war plans on Signal is the most stunning – and perhaps idiotic – breach of security protocol in Washington in recent memory. Most concerning for National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, who invited Goldberg to the chat, is that Republicans are already abandoning him. Most importantly, Wicker said his panel will investigate.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Max Cohen

TODAY: Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss news of the day and tax policy. We have a few spots left, RSVP here!

SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH

Are Republicans blowing a Florida special election?

House Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about Florida’s 6th District special election on April 1. It’s a deep-red seat that former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) won by 33 points five months ago before decamping for the Trump administration.

But many GOP officials are concerned that Republican candidate Randy Fine’s lackluster fundraising and sky-high Democratic enthusiasm could put the race in uncomfortably close territory.

Fine, a GOP state legislator, has raised just under $1 million since entering the race and has just $93,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has brought in a stunning $9 million and has $1.2 million on hand.

The money situation has gotten so dire for Fine that we’re told he’s been calling GOP House members, pleading for funds.

“He needs to do better,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said of Fine.

Democrats tell us they aren’t expecting to come close to flipping the seat blue.

But if Weil — who has effectively seized on liberal engagement to raise astonishing amounts of money — keeps Fine’s expected victory to the low double digits, then the party can credibly claim a groundswell of support in an ultra-conservative seat. That doesn’t augur well for House Republicans heading into 2026, and it could make some upcoming votes even tougher for swing seat House GOP lawmakers.

“These are races that should not, under ordinary circumstances, be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling.”

Fine didn’t start spending on TV ads until last week, while Weil has been on the air since the opening days of March.

The NRCC doesn’t plan to dump any money into the race. Hudson said he was confident that Fine would win.

“I would have preferred it if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and got on TV quicker, but he’s doing what he needs to do,” Hudson said. “He’s on TV now. We’re going to win the seat. I’m not concerned at all.”

The real fear for Republicans is that a large Democratic overperformance in the 6th District will fuel liberal narratives that 2026 is gearing up to be a big, 2018-style wave election. Democrats used anti-Trump fervor that year to win more than 40 seats and seize control of the House.

It’s important to note that special elections have favored Democrats in recent times. The party can count on its base of educated, fired-up activists to get involved and dump money in. And normally, the party out of power overperforms the fundamentals in off-year races. Just look at Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and former Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-Pa.) results in red-leaning House seats in 2017 and 2018.

But while those seats were truly in play — Ossoff narrowly fell short while Lamb won — Weil doesn’t have a good shot of winning. But the story of how close Florida’s 6th District race could get is arguably more important than the final result itself.

– Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

The Vault: House Democrats weigh GOP sitdowns as stablecoin markup looms

News: Some Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee will meet with their Republican counterparts this week to discuss stablecoin legislation as the panel’s policymaking enters a crucial stretch.

The House Financial Services Committee, led by Chair J. French Hill (R-Ark.), will mark up a stablecoin bill next week, on April 2. The STABLE Act is a similar but distinct product from the GENIUS Act, which the Senate Banking Committee advanced before the March recess.

We’ve heard grumblings from some of the panel’s Democrats in recent weeks about the process around the stablecoin legislation, which does not currently have any bipartisan sponsors.

HFSC Republicans have drifted away from a bipartisan framework hammered out by Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and former Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) that was only released by Waters after McHenry’s retirement. Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) told us before the March recess that House Republicans “have pretty much decided to go their own way on this.”

But bipartisan sitdowns this week could give some Democrats a brief window to shape the bill before it reaches next week’s markup.

When we asked Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) how he was feeling about the House’s stablecoin legislation on Monday night, Liccardo told us he had “some meetings scheduled this week, so I don’t want to get too far out in front of those.”

A source familiar with the Republican engagement confirmed they’d be meeting with Democrats this week to discuss stablecoins — mostly crypto-curious or crypto-friendly Dems.

Liccardo said he was most concerned about the enforcement of U.S. stablecoin standards abroad. “I think we want all of our investors to be protected by U.S. laws,” the California Democrat said.

When we checked back in with Foster this week, he said his office was now weighing the best way to work with the GOP-led committee.

“We’re going to have an internal huddle in our office to understand how we’re gonna engage on crypto,” Foster said. “There’s some foundational issues, like anonymity and finality, that we just differ on with Republicans. It actually splits both parties.”

– Brendan Pedersen

THE RANK AND FILE

Hoyer, Approps Dems seeking hearing with Musk and Vought

Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.), ranking member of the Financial Services and General Government subcommittee on the House Appropriations Committee, and several other Democrats on the panel want Republicans to call Elon Musk, OMB Director Russ Vought and Amy Gleason, acting administrator for the U.S. DOGE Service, to explain how DOGE operates and how it’s funded.

In a new letter to Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), the FSGG cardinal, Hoyer and the other Democrats note that their subcommittee has jurisdiction over funding for much of the Executive Office of the President. This includes DOGE, which President Donald Trump created by executive order on his first day back in office.

Hoyer plus Democratic Reps. Mark Pocan (Wis.), Glenn Ivey (Md.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) and Sanford Bishop (Ga.) question whether DOGE is an independent agency or an “advisory body” designed to assist the president. This is an important distinction, including whether FOIA and other presidential record-keeping requirements apply to DOGE.

Hoyer and the other Democrats also wonder how OMB has funded DOGE and whether it violated federal laws in doing so. They say an oversight hearing would resolve these questions:

– John Bresnahan

THE AIRWAVES

Two new ad campaigns for you

News: The Republican Main Street Partnership is backing vulnerable GOP Reps. Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.) and Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) in a $500,000 ad buy that thanks the incumbents for fighting fraud in Medicare and Medicaid.

Democrats are relentlessly hammering Republicans for putting potential Medicaid cuts in play. The RMSP ad campaign is providing cover for the Democratic attacks, instead reframing the conversation around GOP efforts to go after government abuse and increase transparency.

More ad news: Families Over Billionaires, a Democrat-aligned nonprofit advocacy group, is rolling out a new ad campaign this week to pressure Republicans against cutting Medicaid and extending the 2017 tax cuts for the highest earners. It comes as the group is also planning to hold a rally at the Capitol on Wednesday to fight back on the GOP’s reconciliation plans.

The ads are running on digital signs all around D.C. They cite polling that a majority of Trump voters oppose cutting Medicaid and think the wealthy pay too little in taxes. Check out the ads here.

Endorsement news: EMILYs List is backing 2024 candidate Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District, currently represented by Van Orden.

— Max Cohen and Laura Weiss

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