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IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s Ukraine conundrum

Delaying the inevitable? Mayorkas impeachment trial punted again

Washington and Wall Street focused on key inflation number today

Smith on TikTok ban, abortion rights and rural health care

THE TOP

Johnson’s Ukraine conundrum

Happy Wednesday morning.

This is Day 168 of Mike Johnson’s speakership. And it’s clear now the Louisiana Republican has a very stark choice in front of him — pass a Ukraine aid bill or remain speaker.

It may turn out to be this simple for Johnson, according to multiple sources we spoke to in and around the House Republican leadership.

Johnson is facing a torrent of GOP criticism in advance of even introducing a promised new Ukraine proposal. FISA reauthorization is in trouble. The impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden is sputtering, while Johnson is having to hold onto the impeachment articles for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for a few more days in a bid to make sure Senate Democrats don’t just dismiss them. Things haven’t gone that well for the House Republicans the last few months, to say the least.

We don’t put too much stock in Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) frequent rants. But Greene’s five-page letter on Monday, in which she made the case to replace Johnson, should be viewed quite seriously. If Greene goes through with the motion to vacate that she filed last month after Johnson pushed through the FY2024 government funding package, there’s a good chance he could be ousted.

Right now, Johnson’s best friends are pain and fear. Pain because what House Republicans went through last October following the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was so bad that it seared into their souls. A floor fight over picking a third speaker in six months isn’t going to work for many of them. And fear because if Johnson can’t be speaker, who can?

That’s a very reasonable question, of course. But hardline conservatives like Greene don’t think like that. They believe Johnson is a nice man, but he’s misplayed a series of legislative brawls since becoming speaker. Sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine with a majority of Democratic votes would be the final straw for Greene and other House hardliners.

Greene’s view is drawing some support inside the GOP Conference. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) seems to be entertaining supporting a motion to oust Johnson. Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) told us he represents “A lot of people [who] feel the same way she does. And, you know, in many ways, I do as well.” Crane, however, did wonder whether now is the appropriate time to dump Johnson.

Among Democrats, the prevailing view is that Johnson will eventually put the $95 billion Senate foreign aid package on the floor, pass it with overwhelming Democratic support and remain in the speaker’s chair with the minority backing him or ducking the vote altogether. We don’t find this to be a very feasible plan. Imagine having a Republican speaker propped up by Democrats. How would Johnson raise money? How would Johnson rally Republicans to his side on any issue of the day?

Johnson truly is in one of the most difficult spots we’ve seen a speaker face. Consider this: Johnson is going to struggle to pass a long-term FISA reauthorization bill this week — there’s a classified briefing today with senior intelligence officials. GOP hardliners like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) are voting against the rule, raising questions about whether or not Johnson can even win a simple majority vote. As we’ve noted, the Ukraine situation is a mess. Israel aid is nowhere. FAA reauthorization is looming. And at some point, there will be an emergency funding bill for the Francis Scott Key Bridge disaster.

But what to do about Ukraine is truly jamming Johnson up. What Johnson has floated so far for a Ukraine package — the REPO Act to use seized Russian assets or overturning Biden’s policy on new LNG export applications — isn’t gaining overwhelming traction with his GOP colleagues.

It seems very remote that Johnson can pass any bill that includes tough border security provisions alongside Ukraine aid. The White House won’t accept reversing Biden’s ban on new liquified natural gas export applications. The tax bill looks dead. Israel funding isn’t the draw it once was. In other words, there are little or no sweeteners that will help the Ukraine package slide through the House.

To illustrate the bind House Republican leadership is in, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) reiterated the long-held view among conservative hardliners that he’d only consent to consideration of a Ukraine funding bill if it was paired with H.R. 2, the stringent border security package Republicans passed nearly a year ago.

Yet that means effectively that Perry can’t accept any Ukraine bill because H.R. 2 is a no-go with Senate Democrats or the White House. If you’re a House Republican who will only vote for a Ukraine bill that can’t become law, you are, by definition, opposed to Ukraine funding.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise noted House Republicans “have a one-seat majority. Every day is going to be complicated and difficult for us to move things. That’s not just going to be the case with Ukraine. It’s going to be the case for a lot of other things we’re trying to do.”

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who had his own bid for speaker derailed by former President Donald Trump, added that House Republicans have “been down this road before” and shouldn’t push Johnson out.

“He was duly elected,” Emmer said. “This is who the body wanted. Let’s keep doing our business.”

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

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THE SENATE

Delaying the inevitable? Mayorkas impeachment trial punted again

Senate GOP conservatives won the battle. They’re still likely to lose the war.

Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday bowed to pressure from Senate Republicans who want a full-fledged impeachment trial for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Johnson agreed to delay the formal transmission of the Mayorkas impeachment articles until next week, averting a quick vote by Senate Democrats dismissing or tabling the trial.

Johnson’s move ensures that such a vote won’t take place on Thursday as senators are eager to leave town for the weekend, which the Senate was on track to do if House Republicans presented the articles later today. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) predicted that senators would’ve succumbed to “jet fume intoxication,” making it less likely that conservatives’ bid for a full trial would succeed. There were also attendance concerns.

“The benefit of the delay is — duh — that we have a chance to talk about the issue,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) quipped. “Maybe talking about it for a few days, before we take the Constitution and turn it upside down, just might be a wise thing to do.”

To be sure, this isn’t likely to change the final result. The Senate is still on track to bypass a formal trial for Mayorkas, potentially even with some GOP help. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reiterated Tuesday that he wants to end the process as quickly as possible.

Lunch talk: During Tuesday’s Senate GOP lunch, several Republicans stood up and pushed their leadership to advocate for a delay, according to three attendees. Senate Minority Whip John Thune told Republicans that he also backed a delay.

Thune later told us that waiting until next week allows for “a more fulsome discussion” than if senators were forced to vote Thursday afternoon on a dismissal or tabling motion.

Senate Democrats — who haven’t engaged in any negotiations over a potential Mayorkas trial — can bypass the whole thing on the first day as long as they’re united. But even a single Democratic defection hands Republicans an opportunity to force a trial. However, a handful of Republican votes could be in play for a vote to dismiss or table the trial.

The skeptics: There’s a group of Senate Republicans who are clearly unenthusiastic about hearing an impeachment case that’s destined to fail, all for slightly different reasons. Senate conservatives jokingly referred to them as their party’s “free-range chickens who wander off” at a Tuesday press conference.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) lamented the possibility that the Senate would have to spend time on an impeachment trial for Mayorkas, arguing there’s more important work that needs to be done, including reauthorizing FISA Section 702 before the April 19 deadline.

Murkowski didn’t explicitly say whether she would vote with Democrats on a motion to dismiss or table the trial at the outset. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also isn’t saying which way she would vote.

Then there’s Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who’s hinting he could vote for such a motion. Romney is among those who believe there isn’t a high crime or misdemeanor being alleged against Mayorkas.

Conservatives took turns jabbing Romney on Tuesday.

“Maybe there’s a reason [Romney] is not going up for reelection,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said. “I’m not sure what town halls he’s going to and listening to, but it’s not the same town halls I’m listening to.”

McConnell’s take: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has endorsed the idea of a full trial but isn’t nearly as vocal about it as other GOP leaders. And on Tuesday, when McConnell was asked what he thought about the possibility of delaying the trial, the Kentucky Republican said he has no advice to give to Johnson.

McConnell then immediately pivoted to his top priority — passing the Senate’s $95 billion foreign aid package. McConnell used the phrase “on substance” to transition from talking about the impeachment effort to discussing the supplemental and his oft-stated desire for Johnson to take up and pass the Senate’s bill.

McConnell also noted the FISA deadline.

“So, we’ve got our hands full here,” McConnell concluded.

— Andrew Desiderio

Washington and Wall Street focused on key inflation number today

Washington and Wall Street are eagerly awaiting the release of new inflation data this morning, as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve will continue to punt on cutting interest rates until later this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest consumer price index covering the month of March at 8:30 a.m. Economists forecast that March’s core inflation number will come in at 0.3 percent, an improvement over February’s 0.4 percent increase, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The latest CPI data will arrive following a robust jobs report Friday, showing the U.S. economy is still running strong and may not need a boost as concerns about inflation persist. The Fed will next meet in June to decide whether to cut rates.

While the Biden administration has touted strong jobs and economic growth numbers, a rate cut by the Fed would likely also be a positive development for Democrats heading into the fall elections.

For one, it would show the Fed believes inflation — a key attack line from Republicans — has been tamed. It also would have the effect of making consumer loans, such as mortgages, cheaper.

Some Democrats have publicly called on the Fed to cut interest rates to help the housing market. But Fed Chair Jay Powell has said that will not drive the central bank’s decision-making.

In a sign that Wall Street is growing more skeptical that the Fed will cut rates soon, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon used his annual letter to investors this week to express concerns about inflation. Dimon argued that long-term economic, geopolitical and government spending trends pointed to higher inflation.

Dimon also said investors are overly optimistic about the Fed cutting rates in the coming months.

“These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates,” Dimon wrote. “I believe the odds are a lot lower than that.”

Powell has consistently said in recent weeks that the central bank expects to cut rates this year, but that it is waiting to see a string of good inflation numbers before acting.

— Dave Clarke

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Smith on TikTok ban, abortion rights and rural health care

Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) joined our half-day summit Tuesday for a conversation on the health care challenges in rural communities and what can be done to fix those problems.

Smith also discussed the Senate’s Ukraine funding measure, the House’s TikTok funding bill and abortion rights.

Watch the full conversation here.

… AND THERE’S MORE

Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) will begin circulating a discharge petition to fund the lapsed $7 billion Affordable Connectivity Program this week.

Clarke has led a bipartisan bill that aimed to extend the federal program earlier this year, which garnered 221 co-sponsors. Twenty-one Republicans signed onto that bill.

Clarke’s efforts were cleared by Democratic leadership, and the New York Democrat’s office has started fielding calls to members on both sides of the aisle.

The Affordable Connectivity Program was included in the bipartisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act and offers a discount of $30 a month for eligible households. We wrote about the program here.

More ACP news: The ACP Extension Act has two new co-sponsors. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) have signed onto the legislation, which is led in the upper chamber by Sens. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and others.

Money News: Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) raised $1.3 million in Q1 and has over $3 million on hand. Kim is consistently one of the best fundraisers among House members in tough districts.

Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) raised $745,000 and has $2.1 million on hand. That’s a pretty substantial cash-on-hand total for the freshman Frontliner.

Immigration resolution scoop: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) is playing offense on the border. Vasquez, a vulnerable Frontliner who represents a border district, is introducing a resolution that “condemns Republican inaction on common-sense solutions to our Nation’s broken immigration system and the challenges our Nation faces at the border.”

This is a messaging effort that won’t receive a vote. But it’s still interesting to see an endangered Democrat trying a new border strategy.

— Mica Soellner, Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

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