The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The Trump Show Redux

Lucas jumps into the HFSC gavel race

Inside House Democrats’ private polling on immigration

Cantwell, Warner diverge on key element of House TikTok bill

THE TOP

The Trump Show Redux

Happy Thursday morning.

Speaker Mike Johnson is heading to Mar-a-Lago Friday for a joint news conference with former President Donald Trump that’s billed as being on the topic of “election integrity.”

The buddy-buddy act that you’ll see belies the stark reality on Capitol Hill that Trump has already scuttled a significant part of what Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have tried to accomplish.

This is the reality of Trump. Trump will say or do what he wants at any time. It’s all Trump’s show, and he’ll run it as he sees fit. Trump doesn’t get bogged down over what his actions or comments mean for other Republicans. This was the story of Trump’s presidency, and it’ll be the same if he’s elected again.

We can’t help but recall that the longest (partial) government shutdown in U.S. history occurred on Trump’s watch. He undercut GOP leadership — including McConnell — at the behest of rank-and-file conservatives who appealed to him personally over border wall funding. In the end, Trump and Republicans got nothing from the impasse. Wednesday was basically a replay of that 2018-2019 episode.

In some cases, Trump is undermining things he actually supports. Take FISA Section 702 for instance. Trump has long called for the exact reforms included in the House package, such as narrowing the group of officials who can seek information on Americans swept in surveillance by U.S. national security agencies. The proposal would also impose penalties for FISA abuses.

“This actually addresses that,” Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said of the measure Trump helped kill. “If we’re not going to spy on terrorists and foreign spies, then we’re out of the intelligence business.”

With Ukraine, Johnson made the case in an interview with CBN News on Wednesday that re-arming Ukraine now would actually help Trump if he becomes president again. Holding the Russians back in Ukraine “puts President Trump in a good position” to eventually broker a peace agreement if he’s in the White House next year, Johnson asserted. Trump obviously doesn’t see it that way.

In regards to Johnson’s appearance with Trump Friday in Palm Beach, Fla., election integrity hasn’t been a huge issue for the Louisiana Republican during his 169 days of being speaker. Johnson has said his goal has been to try to keep steady hands on the wheel and steer the House toward getting things done. You can be the judge of how he’s done with that.

But we do see the benefit for Johnson of standing with Trump. Johnson is at risk of being booted from the speakership, especially if he advances a clean FISA bill and Ukraine aid. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and other Johnson critics are talking to Trump on a regular basis. Johnson saw what Trump did to House Majority Whip Tom Emmer during the scramble to replace Kevin McCarthy. Johnson knows he needs to play the Trump card too.

But there’s a potentially significant downside here as well. Trump is prone to pressuring Republicans into positions they may not want to take when they’re in front of the camera with him.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

Next week’s event! Punchbowl News Managing Editor Heather Caygle will discuss the news of the day and how 5G supports America’s global competitiveness with Rep. John Joyce (R-Pa.) on Thursday, April 18 at 9 a.m. ET. RSVP here!

Lucas jumps into the HFSC gavel race

First in Punchbowl News: Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) is running to be the next top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee.

Lucas told us earlier this year he was considering a run to succeed Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who is retiring. Lucas — the most senior member of the House’s banking panel — now is making it official.

Here’s what Lucas said in a statement:

There are now four contenders to be the next leader on the GOP side of HFSC. In order of when they joined the fray, that includes Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Andy Barr (R-Ky.), French Hill (R-Ark.) and now Lucas.

The Oklahoma Republican’s profile is a clear contrast to his rivals, for better and worse. Lucas isn’t what we’d call a McHenry lieutenant on the Financial Services Committee. He’s not a subcommittee chair either, unlike Huizenga, Barr and Hill.

But Lucas does have substantial committee leadership experience away from the banking panel. He’s currently the chair of the House Science Committee. Lucas also served as the Agriculture Committee chair starting in 2011. His tenure there included passage of the 2014 farm bill, which is always a big deal.

We’ve called Lucas a dark horse candidate for a reason. His competition is stiff, for one. And he’s not typically thought of as a major player in financial policy circles.

But we don’t need to tell you that the leadership politics of the House Republican Conference are extremely unsettled right now. Speaker Mike Johnson is still smarting from another losing rule vote on Wednesday, and a potential motion to vacate awaits.

If the Republican-controlled House descends to a deeper level of chaos in the coming weeks or months, the question of who controls the GOP steering committee will remain open for 2025. That’s an opening a dark horse could fit through — in theory.

We’ll have more to say about Lucas’ pitch in the days ahead.

— Brendan Pedersen

2024 WATCH

Inside House Democrats’ private polling on immigration

News: Internal polling presented Wednesday to House Democrats showed that immigration is ratcheting up in importance in the minds of voters. Now, the party is trying to figure out how best to message on an issue that Democrats have traditionally adopted a defensive posture on.

A national DCCC-commissioned poll of more than 1,000 likely voters in 63 competitive House battleground districts found that immigration and abortion were the top two “dealbreaker” issues for respondents. In the poll conducted March 5-10, 36% of voters said they couldn’t support a candidate who disagreed with them on abortion, while 33% said the same for immigration.

It’s an acknowledgment that Democratic candidates in tough races can’t ignore immigration and cede the issue to Republicans railing against President Joe Biden’s border policies. Instead, House Democrats see a path to victory by slamming Republicans for blowing up the bipartisan Senate immigration and border security deal earlier this year.

Immigration: When voters were asked whether they preferred a Democratic candidate who backs stricter immigration enforcement and immigration reform over a Republican who wants to build a border wall and aggressively deport undocumented migrants, the Democrat won out 51%-44% among all voters.

The specific issue positions listed for the Democrat in that scenario were support for increasing border enforcement funding, comprehensive immigration reform and a path to citizenship for Dreamers and high-skill immigrants who pass background checks and pay taxes.

These findings align with the winning immigration strategy of Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in a February special election on Long Island. Suozzi spoke up during the presentation.

“The best, most effective politicians are the ones who say what people are already thinking,” Suozzi told us after. “And the people are thinking about the border and immigration, so we have to talk about that regularly.”

Democrats are emboldened because they feel they can hit Republicans for sinking the bipartisan Senate border package.

“We’re going to tell voters that if they don’t have border security, they can blame it on the Republicans,” Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) added.

The poll found that overwhelming majorities of voters favored stricter immigration enforcement, like cracking down on fentanyl smuggling (92%), increasing Border Patrol and ICE funding (78%) and toughening the standard for asylum seekers while allowing those immigrants that qualify to work immediately (72%).

Abortion: There’s a reason why Democrats have continued to bang the drum on abortion rights. It was a winning message in 2022 and appears to be effective yet again in 2024.

The poll found the top attack lines against Republican candidates were on abortion. When voters were told Republicans want to pass a national abortion ban, 52% said that was very concerning. The same percentage said it was very concerning that Republicans supported overturning Roe v. Wade.

Inside the room: Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) accused members who haven’t yet paid their DCCC dues of not wanting “to give Hakeem Jeffries the gavel.” Craig added that if members want to learn how to fundraise, they should ask a Frontliner for advice. Ouch!

House Democratic leadership trumpeted how the House Majority PAC outraised the Congressional Leadership Fund last quarter. Leadership also hailed that HMP only narrowly trails their GOP counterpart on cash on hand, despite spending more in Suozzi’s election.

— Max Cohen, Heather Caygle and Mica Soellner

THE SENATE

Cantwell, Warner diverge on key element of House TikTok bill

Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) are expected to meet soon about the House-passed bill forcing TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company.

Their sit-down comes amid serious doubts about whether the Senate can follow the House with a similarly strong bipartisan margin to crack down on what lawmakers from both parties say is a burgeoning national security threat — TikTok.

Cantwell and Warner disagree about fundamental elements of the House measure, chiefly over whether it can withstand legal scrutiny.

Warner supports the bill, which the House passed with 352 “yes” votes. Cantwell detailed her opposition to the legislation for the first time earlier this week, arguing it could be struck down by the courts as currently crafted. The implication here is that there are First Amendment or bill of attainder concerns.

We asked Warner to respond to Cantwell’s contention. Warner said he’s spoken with the Justice Department on this issue, and “they do” believe it can beat back legal challenges.

“It’s something — when Sen. Cantwell and I have a fuller discussion, we’ll raise it,” Warner said. “Obviously, whatever we pass needs to stand up to legal scrutiny.”

Warner’s GOP counterpart on the Intelligence panel, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, noted that similar restrictions were imposed on Chinese telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE.

“It doesn’t limit speech or content,” Rubio said of the House TikTok bill. “This is about who owns and manages the algorithm.”

Because of these disagreements, the bill’s status in the Senate is up in the air. Cantwell and her staff are expected to propose changes to the House bill and see if an agreement can be reached. In the meantime, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated he’ll wait for that process to play out.

But proponents of the effort forcing TikTok to cut ties with its parent, ByteDance, fear that they’re witnessing the bill’s slow death.

Cantwell’s opposition is “an obstacle to getting a hearing in the committee,” Rubio said. The Commerce Committee, of course, has jurisdiction over the issue.

“She’s obviously hugely key here, not least because Schumer appears to be deferring to her,” added Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a supporter of the House bill. “If she’s opposed to it, it’s just not going to go anywhere… What worries me is the [slow-rolling]. Are we trying to solve the problems or are we looking for problems?”

— Andrew Desiderio

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign: OK, this has nothing to do with Congress but it’s still interesting. Ivan Bates, Baltimore’s state’s attorney, has cut a new ad for Sheila Dixon’s campaign to be mayor of Baltimore. In the spot, Bates says: “I’m not worried about the past, I’m focused on the partnership for the future.” Dixon, of course, was convicted of embezzlement and was forced to resign from the mayorship.

The Money Game: Former California GOP Rep. Devin Nunes still has a stunning $13 million in his campaign account, according to a recently filed FEC report. His cash on hand is actually growing. He earned $761,830 from investments last quarter.

— Jake Sherman

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