The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson faces Ukraine test on Israel

Ken Griffin gives $4M to House GOP super PAC

What we’re watching

Cuellar breaks from Dems on abortion rights on campaign trail

THE TOP

Johnson faces Ukraine test on Israel

Happy Monday morning.

Speaker Mike Johnson has to balance global security, election-year politics and a desire to save his job.

After the first-ever direct attack on Israel by Iran, most of official Washington is calling on Johnson to immediately put the $95 billion Senate-passed foreign aid bill on the House floor. But to do so could cost Johnson the speaker’s gavel because the measure includes tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine.

For months, Johnson has put off consideration of aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, a decision borne of political expediency, the need to tamp down intra-party fighting and to keep his speakership alive.

Yet reality has smacked the Louisiana Republican in the face, forcing him to make a series of extremely difficult decisions under intense pressure.

On Sunday, Johnson spoke to President Joe Biden, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about the Iranian attack. All participants of the call aside from Johnson support the Senate’s foreign aid package, including Ukraine funding. And all of them, including McConnell, pointed to Iran’s strike — nearly two weeks after Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Syria — as another reason for the House to take up the Senate bill.

In response, Johnson is putting 17 bills on the floor regarding Iran and Israel. Eleven of these will be on the suspension calendar, requiring a two-thirds majority for passage. Six will be under a rule, sources told us.

GOP leaders have also scheduled a House Republican Conference meeting for 5:30 p.m. to discuss “Iran’s recent attack on Israel and defense supplemental spending.”

But on the big issue — the fate of a foreign aid bill and Ukraine — Johnson effectively has two choices, according to aides and lawmakers we spoke to over the weekend:

1) Johnson can move the Senate bill. This would be the fastest way to get $14 billion in new funding to Israel. Ninety House Democrats have a new letter calling for it. And Johnson can do this with some token Republican “wins” that are pre-cooked with the White House and Schumer.

Remember: Schumer has shown a willingness to help Johnson out, especially to insulate him from far-right critics preventing Johnson from doing what Schumer feels is necessary.

It’s far from clear to us that two-thirds of the House would support the Senate bill — the threshold Johnson would need to reach to clear the package. Johnson cannot move this under a rule. It wouldn’t fly.

The House Republican leadership has considered moving the GOP wins in a separate bill, which would be the wrong play here. Republicans understand that the Senate will ignore any sidecar approved by the House. Biden will get the foreign aid package and sign it. Johnson has to find a way to embed some provisions that Biden and the Senate can accept into the base text of the package.

But let’s be clear about the stakes here. As we wrote last week, if Johnson brings up the Senate package — which includes $60 billion-plus for Ukraine — that would probably result in a motion to vacate against him and could end his speakership.

2) Johnson can move an Israel-only aid package. We’re told that this is where he’s leaning. Johnson can probably — not definitely, but probably — pass this through the House. But this could signal that any hope for Ukraine aid is dead.

Johnson has given assurances to donors, colleagues, the White House and world leaders that he’s supportive of Ukraine. Former President Donald Trump has also signaled he’d be comfortable with a Ukraine aid package structured as a “loan.” Trump reiterated this on Friday at Mar-a-Lago while standing next to Johnson.

But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has threatened a motion to vacate if Johnson does.

Trump also faces the start of his hush money criminal trial in New York City today, so he has his own challenges.

There’s no easy decision here. Johnson is going to have a tough time getting any bill through the Rules Committee. But both he and the House GOP leadership will have an easier time with the Israel-only option.

We don’t expect Johnson to act today on a supplemental spending bill or tip his hand on what he’ll ultimately do. Johnson is extremely deliberative, to put it mildly. He thinks through every move thoroughly, socializes it and then makes a decision.

Impeachment and FISA: As of now, House GOP leaders are planning to formally present the articles of impeachment against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the Senate on Tuesday.

Assuming this happens, the Senate could vote to dismiss or table the trial as soon as Wednesday. GOP conservatives have threatened to force votes to drag out this process. They want a full impeachment trial, although Democrats can head this off if they stick together.

The Senate also needs to pass the House’s FISA reauthorization bill by Friday’s deadline. The votes will be there in the end, but the process could be painful. Opponents of the bill like Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) are promising to raise hell.

We expect Schumer to take the initial procedural steps for the House-passed FISA bill later today. There’s no guarantee that the Senate will be able to pass it before the usual Thursday afternoon fly-out.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Programming note: We will only have AM editions this week due to some internal Punchbowl News meetings. We will keep you updated via text alerts and special editions as news unfolds.

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Ken Griffin gives $4M to House GOP super PAC

News: Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel and one of the world’s most successful hedge fund tycoons, has given $4 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC backed by House Republican leadership.

Griffin directed that his contribution, which will become public in CLF’s filing today, be used to support four Republicans: Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Jen Kiggans (R-Va.).

Ciscomani, Bacon, Steel and Kiggans are all seen as pragmatists in an increasingly volatile and rightward-leaning House Republican Conference.

President Joe Biden won all four seats in 2020 and all are expected to be competitive again this year.

A CLF source said Griffin gave the gift because the quartet represents “talented, next-generation conservatives.”

Griffin is one of the party’s mega-donors. The Florida-based hedge-fund manager has given several million-dollar-plus contributions this cycle.

Griffin gave:

→	$3 million to Conservatives for American Excellence, which has played in House races.

→	$5 million to a super PAC supporting Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign.

→	$10 million to Keystone Renewal PAC, which is supporting Dave McCormick’s bid for the Senate in Pennsylvania and $2.5 million to Senate Leadership Fund.

→	$1 million to CLF last summer.

— Jake Sherman

📆

What we’re watching

Monday: The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee has a hearing on the Air Force’s NDAA request with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Gen. David Allvin. House Homeland Security will hear testimony from DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

VA Secretary Denis McDonough will testify about his budget request in front of the House Appropriations Committee. Attorney General Merrick Garland will testify about the DOJ’s budget request in front of House Appropriations too.

The House Ways and Means Committee will hear from USTR Katherine Tai. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra will testify in front of Senate Appropriations. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will testify in front of Senate Appropriations, as will Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti and Gen. Eric Smith, the commandant of the Marine Corps.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will testify in front of Senate Energy and Natural Resources. IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel will testify in front of Senate Finance.

Wednesday: Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will testify about her agency’s budget request in front of House Appropriations. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. C.Q. Brown, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will testify about DoD’s budget request in front of House Appropriations.

Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su will testify about her agency’s budget request in front of House Appropriations.

Former Reps. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), Peter King (R-N.Y.) and Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) will testify on a panel of former members of the House Intelligence Committee.

The House Education and the Workforce Committee will have a hearing on Columbia University’s response to antisemitism. Columbia President Nemat “Minouche” Shafik and board members Claire Shipman and David Greenwald will testify.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will testify in front of House Appropriations about his agency’s budget request. Beccera will testify about HHS’s budget at House Energy and Commerce.

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs will have a hearing on Boeing. House Appropriations will hear from Acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner.

Senate Appropriations will have Garland on the DOJ’s budget. Senate Intelligence will have a hearing on foreign threats to the 2024 election.

Thursday: FDA Commissioner Robert Califf will testify in front of House Appropriations. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Gen. Randy George will testify about the NDAA in front of Senate Armed Services. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs will hear from Mayorkas on DHS’ budget request.

— Jake Sherman

2024 ELECTION

Cuellar breaks from Dems on abortion rights on campaign trail

House Democrats are hammering a pro-abortion message this cycle, hoping to repeat the gains they made during the 2022 election. But Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) won’t be joining them.

Cuellar, the sole anti-abortion Democrat in his caucus, is rejecting colleagues’ calls to support federal protections for abortion. In fact, Cuellar is advocating for more acceptance among Democrats for those who take a different view on the issue.

“It should be left up to the states,” Cuellar told us. “I’m a big believer in the big tent theory and I think [Democrats] should allow people with different religious beliefs when it comes to that.”

That position is quite different from the rest of the Democratic Caucus. The latest DCCC polling shows abortion rights continue to be a top issue for voters and is one Democrats have the upper hand on.

House Democratic leaders hope the issue will even help their candidates in red states by driving voter turnout. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries joined several Florida Democrats last month to message on protecting abortion rights.

Cuellar, who has the backing of Democratic leadership, has been primaried twice due to his views on abortion. The Texas Democrat won his primary last cycle by less than one point against progressive activist Jessica Cisneros.

This cycle, though, Cuellar didn’t face a real challenge. Two Republicans are vying in a primary to run against Cuellar in November. But his district leans Democratic and Cuellar easily won the general election in 2022.

Texas delegation response: Several Texas Democrats told us that abortion will be their top issue this cycle, with the state imposing one of the strictest bans in the country.

Texas has banned nearly all abortions and has made it a crime to perform one. This includes selling or dispensing medication to induce an abortion.

Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said he respects Cuellar’s personal views but will continue to promote abortion rights across his state.

“[Cuellar’s] position and mine are different, but I will continue to advocate to him why I think his position should change,” Casar told us. “It’s becoming a bigger and bigger issue, as people started telling me how dangerous the abortion ban is in Texas.”

Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) said abortion is going to be a leading issue in Texas due to how the state has responded to the issue.

“They’ve gone way too far on this issue,” Veasey told us. “It is going to be huge.”

Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) said Cuellar may be one of the last anti-abortion Democrats the party welcomes, especially as the issue continues to dominate the national conversation.

“There’s space [for anti-abortion Democrats], but it’s very small,” Green told us.

The 2020 cycle knocked out two longtime anti-abortion Democrats. Eight-term Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski lost a primary challenge largely due to his opposition to abortion rights. Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, who served in the House for 30 years, lost to GOP Rep. Michelle Fischbach in the general election.

— Mica Soellner

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign: President Joe Biden’s campaign is running a new ad in Arizona about abortion. The spot takes direct aim at former President Donald Trump, asking if he is elected, what freedom will women lose next? Biden narrates the ad.

An outfit called American Advancement Inc. is running an ad saying Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) is a RINO because he has voiced support for Black Lives Matter. Braun is running for governor of Indiana. The ad is running statewide in Indiana.

Money news: Frontline Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) raised $1 million in the first quarter of 2024 and has $2.8 million on hand.

Endorsement news: The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund is endorsing state Sen. Tim Kennedy in the April 30 special election to fill former Rep. Brian Higgins’ (D-N.Y.) seat.

Downtown Download: Jeff Miller’s Miller Strategies has signed up billionaire GOP donor Warren Stephens’ company ​Stephens Shared Services to lobby on “[i]ssues related to financial services regulations and tax.”

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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