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The red lines begin: A dozen House Republicans say no to big Medicaid cuts

The rise of the million-dollar House fundraising quarter

Sheehy finds his footing after bruising campaign

Jordan to headline Feenstra’s Iowa event

THE TOP

The red lines begin: A dozen House Republicans say no to big Medicaid cuts

Happy Wednesday morning.

News: If you’re looking for a sign that House Republicans are getting worried about cuts to Medicaid, here it is.

A dozen House Republicans are warning GOP leaders that they won’t back a reconciliation package that includes massive cuts to Medicaid, according to a letter first obtained by Punchbowl News.

It’s an escalation of what’s going to be the most difficult problem for Republicans as they try to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda in the coming months.

These moderate Republicans, many of them in key swing seats, are going to be locked in a battle of wills with conservative hardliners who want to slash federal spending, including Medicaid and other social safety net programs.

The fate of Republicans’ behemoth reconciliation bill — which will also carry key GOP priorities like tax cuts, a Pentagon spending hike and more border security funding — is linked to the Medicaid standoff.

Remember, House Republicans’ reconciliation plan includes cutting $880 billion under the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s purview, much of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

The message: The moderate Republicans’ letter to House GOP leadership and Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) says Medicaid cuts could threaten nursing homes and hospitals, especially in rural and underserved areas.

Here’s the key part:

The House Republicans who signed onto the letter include: Reps. David Valadao (Calif.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Jeff Van Drew (N.J.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Young Kim (Calif.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.) and Jeff Hurd (Colo.).

It’s not clear exactly where these members will draw the line just yet, or if it’ll be the same across the group. There’s a general acceptance, for the most part, of cutting “waste, fraud and abuse” in Medicaid programs. But Republicans will clash over the specifics in the weeks ahead and that’s where things get tricky.

“There’s reasonable actions we can support like work requirements for able bodied adults without children and auditing the Medicaid list,” Bacon told us. “But there will not be the votes to cut Medicaid for those who need it or to the hospitals that we need to preserve.”

Kim said in a statement that a reconciliation package “that does not protect vital Medicaid services for the most vulnerable citizens in my community will not receive my vote,” adding she’s made that clear to constituents and GOP leadership.

Some of the GOP lawmakers who signed onto this letter – Van Drew, Malliotakis and LaLota – huddled with Speaker Mike Johnson on the House floor during the budget resolution vote just before recess. After their lengthy chat, they touted promises from Johnson that Medicaid cuts won’t go too deep.

Van Drew later told reporters that Johnson promised not to cut Medicaid for individuals who are “qualified” to receive the benefit. LaLota told us that the speaker vowed to take a “compassionate approach.”

But Johnson also told conservatives agitating for massive spending cuts that he’s committed to slashing $1.5 trillion or more. That sets up a brutal fight in late April and May. Some members are bound to end up feeling jilted.

The politics: This group of more centrist Republicans is signaling that they’re willing to play hardball to avoid Medicaid cuts, which would have big impacts back home. These sorts of members aren’t usually the ones to threaten to take down major legislation. But there are enormous political and policy stakes at play here.

Across the Capitol, a number of GOP senators — including several with large Medicaid populations — also have warned party leaders against making draconian cuts to the popular program.

Democrats have been hammering Republicans over the potential Medicaid cuts, saying it will jeopardize the health of millions of children and low-income families.

We’ve reported the hefty investment in ad buys that House Majority Forward, the HMP-aligned organization, launched against Republicans last month. This is going to be one of the most prominent messaging wars heading into the 2026 cycle.

We’ll also note the Medicaid ads are coming from all sorts of groups and organizations. The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network is running digital ads on the potential Medicaid cuts, including in Louisiana. Several California labor unions are running ads saying rural hospitals rely on Medicaid funding.

Democrats have tied the Medicaid cuts to Republicans’ tax plans, making the case that the GOP will slash the health care program while also preserving lower tax rates for wealthier Americans

In a sign the Democratic attacks are working, some White House officials are talking about letting taxes go up or creating a new top tax rate for some of the wealthiest Americans, as Bloomberg reported.

We don’t expect Republicans to ditch decades of GOP orthodoxy around tax cuts. GOP leaders have made extremely clear they don’t want to raise tax rates — even for the rich. But with unrelenting pressure from conservatives to slash social safety net programs as part of the tax bill, Republicans are in a very difficult spot.

— Mica Soellner, Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman, Samantha Handler and John Bresnahan

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THE MONEY GAME

The rise of the million-dollar House fundraising quarter

In past cycles, any House member raising more than $1 million in the first quarter of an off-year would be hailed as a fundraising superstar. Now that’s almost the bare minimum.

Election Day is still more than 18 months away. But candidates in competitive seats are already raking in cash. And for House incumbents who have publicized their first quarter fundraising numbers, Republicans are outpacing Democrats.

For House Republicans in districts the DCCC is targeting, Reps. Ken Calvert (Calif.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Young Kim (Calif.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Andy Barr (R-Ky.) have all brought in more than $1 million in Q1.

For Democrats in seats that the NRCC is going after, only Rep. Eugene Vindman (Va.) has posted a fundraising total of over $1 million.

The overall picture is impressive for the most vulnerable House Republicans. On average, at-risk House Republicans raised $994,000 in Q1, substantially ahead of the $524,000 average for vulnerable House Democrats (That tally excludes Democratic Reps. Jahana Hayes (Conn.) and Janelle Bynum (Ore.), who didn’t file as of the time of writing).

And the NRCC’s list of at-risk members have an average of $1.2 million on hand, outpacing the Frontliner average of $657,000. These aren’t exact comparisons given these members aren’t facing off against each other in elections. But it shows how well Republicans have kicked off 2025 on the money front.

Things look slightly rosier, however, for Democratic challengers taking on vulnerable Republicans. Democratic hopefuls Manny Rutinel in Colorado’s 8th District, Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District and Esther Kim Varet in California’s 40th District have all raised over $1 million in Q1. No GOP challenger has posted a Q1 haul of a million or more.

Of course, money isn’t everything. With the rise of super PACs, both the House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund end up dominating in outside spending.

And we reported last fall how Democrats enjoyed a sizable funding advantage in competitive seats down the stretch — while House Republicans still maintained their majority.

Historical watch: In the first quarter of 2023, only four vulnerable House incumbents — three Republicans and one Democrat — posted million-dollar quarters. In Q1 2023, just two challengers — Adam Frisch and now-Rep. George Whitesides (D-Calif.) — raised a million dollars or more. So the number of House candidate million-dollar quarters has at least doubled from the same time last cycle.

— Max Cohen

THE SENATE

Sheehy finds his footing after bruising campaign

Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) was elected to the Senate last year as a full-throated supporter of President Donald Trump, promising to “back him up 100% of the time.”

But during his nascent Senate tenure, Sheehy — a former Navy SEAL who talks more like a hard-nosed military officer than a senator — has become known more for bipartisan legislating than anything else.

Sheehy, 39, has partnered with some of the chamber’s most liberal Democrats as part of his drive to overhaul how the U.S. government fights and prevents wildfires. Sheehy even got a bill through the Senate as the lead sponsor before he hit his 100th day, the only first-year senator to do so.

“I came here to solve problems and get shit done,” Sheehy said in an interview. “We have to stop watching our cities burn to the ground.”

Sheehy defeated former Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) last year after a bruising campaign. Sheehy pumped $2.45 million of his own money into his effort, per FEC records.

It’s rare for a freshman senator to find a legislative niche this early in his or her tenure, especially with no prior political experience. But Sheehy, an aerial firefighting pilot, came into the Senate as the nation was fixated on the devastating wildfires that ravaged southern California throughout January.

“We were never going to have as much national focus on this issue and as much of a mandate to fix this problem as in the wake of that terrible disaster,” Sheehy said. “The time to act was now.”

Less than 100 days later, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would help facilitate the transfer of excess Defense Department aircrafts for aerial firefighting. The legislation was one of several Sheehy-led proposals intended to cut bureaucratic red tape that often hampers effective wildfire containment.

Small potatoes to some, maybe. And its outlook in the House is unclear. But it was just the 10th bill the Senate has passed all year, underscoring how difficult it is to get any legislation through the sharply divided chamber these days.

‘Sniper shots’: Wildfires used to be thought of as a localized issue, particularly in Western states. That’s no longer the case. And senators say the federal government has been derelict, as state and local governments are often left dealing with bureaucratic delays, no real coordination between different agencies and a general lack of resources.

“This is beginning to impact the entire country but has deeply impacted our states for a long time,” Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) told us. “It’s a natural fit for us to work together.”

While Trump can do a lot through executive action, there’s also a role for Congress to play. Rather than going for a comprehensive mega-bill, Sheehy and his Democratic partners want to chip away at the problems one-by-one — from the legislation on excess aircraft, to authorizing intelligence-sharing at all levels of government.

Sheehy said his goal is to take “targeted sniper shots at frankly dumb constrictions on our ability to protect American communities.”

— Andrew Desiderio

HAWKEYE WATCH

Jordan to headline Feenstra’s Iowa event

House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is heading to Iowa in May to headline Rep. Randy Feenstra’s (R-Iowa) Family Picnic.

Feenstra’s event, held this year on May 30 in Sioux Center, Iowa, is becoming a major stop for prominent Republicans. Last year, Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis was the headliner. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina GOP Gov. Nikki Haley have also been past featured guests at Feenstra’s bash.

Feenstra, who knocked off former Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) in a 2020 primary, is establishing himself as a key player in Iowa politics.

And it’s always interesting to us to see Jordan making a trip to Iowa, where caucus-goers gather every four years to make the Hawkeye State the center of the GOP political universe.

— Max Cohen

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Grindr, the gay dating app, has registered an in-house lobbyist to lobby on “HIV prevention; LGTBQ family formation challenges including surrogacy and IVF; and age-assurance.” Joe Hack, former chief of staff to Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), is lobbying for Grindr.

Georgetown University has hired Center Road Solutions to lobby on “social media transparency and research.”

– Jake Sheman

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